33rd Team’s NFL Executives Debate Packers-Jets Trade for Rodgers

The 33rd Team’s powerhouse staff discusses the leverage in the Packers-Jets negotiations for Aaron Rodgers and what the Packers will get in return.

Author:
Bill Huber
Publish date:
Mar 21, 2023 10:05 AM EDT

In this story:

Green Bay Packers

GREEN BAY, Wis. – “Leverage.” It’s the key word as Green Bay Packers general manager Brian Gutekunst and his New York Jets counterpart, Joe Douglas, try to hammer out a trade for four-time MVP quarterback Aaron Rodgers.

Who has that leverage? Even the experts don’t agree.

Four high-ranking former NFL executives, Joe Banner, Mike Tannenbaum, Jeff Diamond and Rick Spielman, are on The 33rd Team’s staff. Each one broke down the Rodgers talks.

From Banner’s perspective, the Jets have the leverage.

“The Packers have to pay $60 million in guaranteed money no matter what and have $100 million to write off if Rodgers is with them in Week 1,” Banner wrote. “So, if I’m the Jets, I do nothing but sit – no matter how long it takes to get a deal.

“A month. Four months. Whatever their best offer is, it’s exactly what they’ll get him for. Because there are no other bidders. Plus, the notion that the Packers will bring him back, pay him $60 million, leave Jordan Love on the bench and impede his development further is crazy. The Packers have nothing that can force the Jets’ hand.”

Tannenbaum disagrees.

Yes, there’s a lot of money at stake but, when the Packers signed Rodgers to that three-year, $150 million contract, it was with the intention of Rodgers playing for the Packers. So, that contract has been part of Green Bay’s accounting all along.

Thus, from Tannenbaum’s perspective, Green Bay can roll with Rodgers. The Jets, however, can’t roll anywhere without him.

“I see the Packers having the leverage here. If a deal fell through and he had to come back to them, that’s a position they budgeted for and are prepared to take on. So, let’s say that happens. They at least have a good young quarterback behind an aging legend, and that’s a pretty good worst-case scenario. …

“As for the Jets, they don’t have an alternative. They have a new offensive coordinator in Nathaniel Hackett. But when the offseason program begins, if they have to go out there with Zach Wilson as their starter, everyone will know it’s a waste of time. That’s why I say the leverage is with Green Bay.”

To Spielman, the finances and trade compensation are linked. In a way, the Jets would be doing the Packers a “favor,” one executive told Packer Central.

“Remember, you’re also giving Green Bay a lot of cash and cap relief by taking on that contract,” Spielman said. “That has to be worth less in draft compensation. You’re talking about a 39-year-old quarterback – yes, a future Hall of Famer – but he didn’t have a great season last year. How much the Jets assume of his contract will determine where the compensation goes.

“I would hope this gets done in the next two weeks for one reason: How active can the Jets be if they’re trying to budget Rodgers’ contract into the overall structure? It could prevent them from doing some things in free agency.”

So, what will the Packers get in return? Check out the full piece for their wide-ranging opinions.