Grading the Packers: Running Backs

Our grades are focused on performance relative to the salary cap. With a new contract, Aaron Jones was good but not great.

GREEN BAY, Wis. – Player grades are a staple series of stories at the end of every NFL season. Ours are different, as we grade based on the players’ impact relative to the salary cap. That’s because the cap is such a big part of building a roster. Not only must a team’s high-priced players deliver but it must have some of its less-expensive players outperform their contracts.

Generally, the Green Bay Packers got high marks from both groups in posting their third consecutive 13-win season, though too many fell flat in the playoffs.

This series continues with the running backs. All salary data is from OverTheCap.com.

Grading the Running Backs

Aaron Jones ($4.46 million cap charge; ranking No. 13 among RBs)

In a big surprise just before the start of free agency, the Packers re-signed Jones with a four-year deal worth $48 million.

With talent and production, leadership and charisma, it was easy to see why.

At the time his re-signed, his career average of 5.17 yards per carry ranked sixth all-time. Two of the players ahead of him, Cleveland’s Marion Motley and Jim Brown, are in the Pro Football Hall of Fame. Jones and Brown were the only players in NFL history to rush for 3,000-plus yards, 35-plus touchdowns and average 5-plus yards per carry in their first four seasons in the league.

Jones was good in 2021 but nowhere near that good. In 15 games, he rushed for 799 yards (4.7 average) and four touchdowns. A tremendous receiving threat, he added 52 receptions for 391 yards (7.5 average) and six touchdowns. That gave him 1,190 yards and 10 touchdowns from scrimmage. However, he went from 5.5 yards per rush and 5.9 yards per touch in 2020 to 4.7 yards per rush and 5.3 yards per touch in 2021. His 10-yard run rate went from 12.7 percent in 2020 to 9.3 percent in 2021.

To be sure, the revolving door on the offensive line impacted his numbers. In 2020, he ran behind All-Pros David Bakhtiari and Corey Linsley and Pro Bowler Elgton Jenkins. In 2021, Jenkins played in eight games, Bakhtiari in one and Linsley was with the Chargers. Of 50 backs with at least 100 rushes, Jones tied for 13th with 3.18 yards per rush after contact, according to Pro Football Focus. He’s never shied away from contact. However, he ranked just 32nd in Success Rate, according to Football Outsiders. (More on that stat in a moment.)

The problem with paying running backs is, at some point, the accumulation of hits is just too much. Jones isn’t to that point but he might be best as 1B to AJ Dillon’s 1A.

Grade: C-plus.

AJ Dillon ($1.20 million cap charge; ranking No. 51 among RBs)

On the surface, there was nothing particularly great about Dillon’s second season. He led the team with 803 rushing yards but averaged a modest 4.3 yards per carry. However, Football Outsiders has a stat called Success Rate. It mirrors the Packers’ win/loss system. A first-and-10 run that gains 4 yards is a win; anything less is a loss. A second-down run that gains at least half the required distance is a win. A third-down run that moves the chains is a win.

According to Football Outsiders, Dillon ranked No. 1 with a 63 percent success rate.

Dillon got what was blocked and typically used his muscular legs to get significantly more. He ranked 20th in the NFL in rushing but 16th in rushing yards after contact. He tied Jones for 13th in the league with 3.18 yards after contact per carry. A total nonfactor in the passing game at Boston College, Dillon has backed up the scouts’ beliefs. According to PFF, 44 backs were targeted at least 35 times. Dillon ranked third in catch rate (91.9 percent) and eighth in YAC per catch (9.2) while catching 34 balls for 313 yards and two scores.

Where Dillon needs to take a big step is in explosive runs. He had nine runs of 10-plus yards, a 10-yard run rate of 4.8 percent that ranked last out of the 50 backs with 100-plus attempts. He wasn’t given a path into the open field very often. When he did, he never got close to getting past that last line of defense.

Grade: B.

Kylin Hill ($543,655 cap charge; ranking No. 121 among RBs)

A potential-packed seventh-round pick, Hill never had a prayer of earning a major role alongside Jones and Dillon. He carried 10 times for 24 yards (2.4 average; long of 8) and caught one pass for 5 yards. He didn’t break any tackles and averaged 1.9 yards after contact. Given a shot on kickoff returns, he averaged only 19.9 yards per return but had the team’s longest of the season (41 yards). He suffered a torn ACL returning a kickoff in Week 8 at Arizona.

Grade: D.

Patrick Taylor ($366,667 cap charge; ranking No. 133 among RBs)

Beaten out by Hill for the No. 3 job during training camp, Taylor got his chance when Hill went down at midseason. He was much better on Sundays than on the practice field. He carried 23 times for 89 yards (3.9 average) and one touchdown and caught two passes for 3 yards. In those limited snaps, he forced six missed tackles, averaged 3.04 yards after contact and had two carries of 10-plus yards.

With Jones inactive and Dillon getting limited reps in the finale at Detroit, Taylor really flashed. He carried 11 times for 53 yards and one touchdown, with 40 of those yards coming after contact. That game has him positioned for a roster spot next summer.

Grade: C.

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