Here’s the Packers’ Compensatory Pick Scoreboard

The Green Bay Packers have lost some key free agents while not making a big splash. That’s going to mean some extra picks in 2024.

Author:
Bill Huber
Updated:
Mar 19, 2023 9:49 PM EDT
Original:
Mar 19, 2023

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Green Bay Packers

GREEN BAY, Wis. – The Green Bay Packers are rebuilding or reloading. Whatever your perspective on the post-Aaron Rodgers journey, they’ll get some additional draft picks in 2024 to help rebuild or reload.

Through the first week of NFL free agency, the Packers have lost four starters: receiver Allen Lazard, tight end Robert Tonyan, and defensive linemen Jarran Reed and Dean Lowry. Because they haven’t signed anyone of note, they’ll be eligible to gain some compensatory draft picks in next year’s draft.

How many and in what round? That’s to be determined.

Compensatory picks are handed out via a top-secret formula. As explained by the NFL, “Compensatory free agents are determined by a formula based on salary, playing time and postseason honors. Clubs that suffer a net loss of [compensatory free agents] during the prior free agent signing period are eligible to receive a corresponding number of compensatory selections.”

Average annual salary is the main driver.

Nick Korte of OverTheCap.com keeps a running breakdown. Korte, who knows as much as anyone on the topic, has the Packers in line to gain three comp picks. That number, and the projected round, could change.

Lazard was given a four-year contract that’s worth $11 million per season by the New York Jets. Korte is projecting a fifth-round pick, though that’s right on the doorstep of moving up to the fourth round.

“Allen Lazard’s contract is right on the bubble of the fourth-/fifth-round cutoff,” Korte wrote in an e-mail. “If he plays more than our estimate of 58 percent of the snaps in 2023 based on an average of his career playtime, he will have an excellent chance to net the Packers a fourth-round pick for his departure.”

Reed signed a two-year deal with the Seahawks that’s worth $4.5 million per season. That puts him squarely in the sixth-round range.

Lowry inked a two-year deal with the Vikings that’s worth $4.25 million per season. That’s also in the sixth-round bracket – though perilously close to falling into the seventh round. That’s a big deal, obviously, since there’s an entire 32-pick seventh round to churn through before those comp picks are on the clock.

“His contract is well in the sixth-round range for now, and as long as he does not miss many games in 2023, it will likely stay that way,” Korte wrote.

What about Tonyan? He settled for a one-year, $2.65 million contract with the home-state Bears. By Korte’s estimation, that will fall outside the 32-pick limit; the last players to qualify were given contracts worth $3 million per season. That’s not set in stone, though.

Here’s an example to illustrate. Currently, the Jaguars have that last comp pick after losing Chris Manhertz to Denver on a two-year deal that averages $3 million per season. If the Jaguars were to sign a qualifying free agent, the Manhertz comp pick would be canceled and Tonyan would move into the seventh round. However, more signing could vault in front of Tonyan.

“A compensatory pick for Tonyan's departure should be seen as a pleasant surprise, should it happen,” Korte wrote. “His pay for 2023 is barely enough to qualify him as a compensatory free agent. Even if he is qualified as such, the pick will be near or at the end of the queue, and may not make the 32-pick limit on regular compensatory picks.”

The Packers have at least one more free agent who could net a comp pick should he sign elsewhere: safety Adrian Amos. For what it’s worth, Spotrac is projecting Amos will collect a contract worth $6.8 million per season. If that guess winds up being correct, the Packers would be in line to get a pick in the sixth round.

The NFL initiated the comp-pick system in 1994. Over those almost-three decades, the Packers have gained 49 additional picks. That trails only the Baltimore Ravens (55) and Dallas Cowboys (52).

The Packers have selected some real gems with those extra picks. Offensive lineman Zach Tom might join the likes of Josh Sitton, Mike Daniels, Blake Martinez and Dean Lowry as fourth-round hits. Aaron Jones was the best of the fifth-rounders. Center Scott Wells was a find in the seventh round.

Then again, in 2018, the Packers received the maximum of four picks. They were used on receiver J’Mon Moore in the fourth, punter JK Scott and receiver Valdes-Scantling in the fifth, and receiver Equanimeous St. Brown in the sixth.