NFC North Insiders: Best-Case Scenarios for Each Team

Our four NFC North beat writers get you ready for the 2022 NFL season with a series of previews. In Part 5 of our roundtable conversation, we take a glass-is-half-empty view of each team.

Author:
Bill Huber
Updated:
Jul 2, 2022 11:10 AM EDT
Original:
Jul 2, 2022

In this story:

Green Bay Packers

GREEN BAY, Wis. – For Rashan Gary, the Green Bay Packers’ rising outside linebacker, the ring is the thing.

“No. 1 is a ring. Personal goals, I don’t like to talk about, but my No. 1 thing is getting us to that division championship, winning and going to the Super Bowl,” Gary said at the end of OTAs. “That’s the No. 1 thing. We’ve been there three years in a row. We’ve got all the pieces. It’s just about putting it all together.”

It’s been a long time since the Packers have put all the pieces together at the right time. Since celebrating with the Lombardi Trophy on Feb. 6, 2011, the Packers have assembled a regular-season record of 118-57-2. That’s six more wins than any other team in the NFC. They’ve won eight of the 11 NFC North championships.

All those regular-season triumphs have added up to a lot of playoff disappointment.

Will this be the year the Packers finally get back to – and win – the Super Bowl? Our NFC North insiders – Bill Huber of Packer Central, Will Ragatz of Inside the Vikings, Gene Chamberlain of Bear Digest and John Maakaron of All Lions – get you ready for the 2022 NFL season with a 12-piece roundtable discussion. In Part 5 of this series, we focus on each team’s best-case scenario.

Green Bay Packers: Win the Super Bowl

The best-case scenario is the same as it’s been every other year for the past three decades. With a great quarterback, a Super Bowl championship is always the expectation. The Packers are built to win now, with management pushing tens of millions of salary-cap dollars into the future to assemble a roster capable of winning a championship today.

The Packers have a great quarterback with four-time MVP Aaron Rodgers. But it’s so much more than that. Great players win games, and the Packers have a great player at almost every position group. They’ve got great tandems of running backs (Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon), outside linebackers (Rashan Gary and Preston Smith) and safeties (Adrian Amos and Darnell Savage), and perhaps the league’s best trio of cornerbacks (Jaire Alexander, Rasul Douglas, Eric Stokes). If David Bakhtiari and Elgton Jenkins bounce back from torn ACLs, they’ve got two great offensive linemen. Kenny Clark is a Pro Bowl defensive tackle.

That’s a lot of talent. Even with the uncertainty at receiver, they should have a chance to win every game.

Of course, it can be argued that if the Packers couldn’t get to a Super Bowl following an unprecedented three consecutive seasons of 13 wins and back-to-back MVPs by Rodgers that they’ll never win another championship with Rodgers. And, to be sure, trading Davante Adams was a major blow. He had more catches and receiving yards last season than the projected starting trio of Allen Lazard, Sammy Watkins and Randall Cobb had combined.

But the return of Alexander from a shoulder injury, the re-signings of Campbell and Douglas in free agency, and the addition of linebacker Quay Walker and defensive tackle Devonte Wyatt in the first round could make the defense a bad-ass unit. Rodgers, an elite defense and an improved special teams under esteemed coordinator Rich Bisaccia could finally be the Super Bowl-winning recipe.

Minnesota Vikings: 12/13 Wins, NFC North Champions

It takes a fair amount of optimistic projection to get there, but the Vikings have the pieces in place — at least on paper — to have their best season since 2017.

The offense is led by a solid veteran quarterback in Kirk Cousins, who is overpaid but can make every throw when he's given time. The skill positions are loaded; the Vikings have arguably the game's best wide receiver in Justin Jefferson, an elite running back in Dalvin Cook, a strong No. 2 receiver and red zone weapon in Adam Thielen, and a breakout candidate at tight end in Irv Smith Jr., who is returning from injury. The skill positions have some depth, too.

If young offensive linemen Christian Darrisaw and Ezra Cleveland take the next step and the Vikings get solid play at center and right guard to go with Pro Bowl right tackle Brian O'Neill, this could be Minnesota's best O-line in a while. That's key for Cousins' success.

Defensively, there are playmakers at all three levels in Danielle Hunter, Za'Darius Smith, Dalvin Tomlinson, Eric Kendricks, Harrison Smith, rookie Lewis Cine and Cameron Dantzler. If Hunter and Smith stay healthy and the young defensive backs step up, this could be a great defense. (I warned you that there would be plenty of "ifs" here.) Mike Zimmer was an elite defensive mind, but Ed Donatell was a strong defensive coordinator hire who will run the Vic Fangio scheme that's spreading across the league.

This best-case scenario hinges on health, breakout performances, and new coach Kevin O'Connell being a top-notch offensive play caller and game manager right away. The Vikings think they hit a home run by hiring O'Connell — time to find out if they're right.

Chicago Bears: Fighting for .500

The eighth-easiest schedule in the league based on opponents' 2021 winning percentages at least gives the Bears hope they can win enough to keep their fan base engaged until 2023. It's then when they'll have enough salary cap space to address personnel deficiencies.

The best-case scenario for the Bears in 2022 includes maxing out with eight wins by staying at or close to .500 until the final five games, when they are at home four times.

This is easier said than done but the formula is simple enough: They take away the ball and rely on the running game, which is the basis for the attack being installed by offensive coordinator Luke Getsy, Aaron Rodgers’ quarterbacks coach the past three seasons. It's a play-action passing game and Justin Fields' running ability greatly aiding in ball control.

The Bears need to build their running game into a top-five group the way the Eagles did, buying Fields more time to work at knowing new receivers such as Velus Jones and Byron Pringle.

Their unproven offensive line could do it because seven games are against teams ranked 22nd or worse last season at stopping the run.

Bears backs averaged 3.8 yards a carry last year and bringing this average up a small amount, combined with effective play-action passing, can keep their defense off the field.

Coach Matt Eberflus is going to aim his defense at increasing takeaways like with the Colts. Players like linebacker Roquan Smith, safety Eddie Jackson and cornerback Jaylon Johnson are keys at taking it away, further enhancing the ball-control style.

The Bears would need to beat the Lions twice, the Texans, Falcons, Giants, Jets, Dolphins and the Vikings once. Sure, those teams look at them as easy touches, too, but this is the best-case Bears scenario and it's not going to include wins over teams like Green Bay or Dallas.

Detroit Lions: Staying Healthy, Growing

The Lions are entering the season hoping to remain a healthy football team. While every team hopes to avoid the injury bug, Detroit lacks depth in several key areas. Any rash of injuries that sweeps through the team could easily derail the upcoming campaign.

Last season, the team was besieged by injuries, including to center Frank Ragnow and cornerback Jeff Okudah. Running back D'Andre Swift battled a groin injury in training camp and an AC joint sprain near the end of the season. Tight end T.J. Hockenson was also unable to finish the season after injuring his thumb against the Vikings.

The best-case scenario for coach Dan Campbell is for the team to remain relatively healthy in order to be able to properly evaluate the talent on the roster.

Players like Jared Goff, Okudah and Swift must be able to stay on the field in order for the team to have a chance at drastically improving their win total.

The offensive line is being heralded as a unit on the rise. If all five starters can remain healthy and gel as a unit, Detroit's offense has a chance to lead the way. Taylor Decker and Ragnow must be able to anchor a unit that should excel at both pass and run blocking.

It is likely this team has a ceiling of six or eight victories. They will come nowhere near that total if they do not stay healthy.