NFC Playoffs Best and Worst: Situational Football
GREEN BAY, Wis. – If there’s a five-alarm fire that stands in the way of the Green Bay Packers’ path to Los Angeles for this year’s Super Bowl, it’s situational football.
While turnover margin and passer-rating differential are the biggest keys to success, so is what’s done on the money downs. Can you move the chains on third down or force the opponent to punt? Once the ball is advanced inside the 20, can you punch it into the end zone for six points or hold the opponent to three?
Cumulatively, the Packers are terrible in those phases – what’s called situational football. In fact, of the seven-team playoff field, they are the worst by a wide margin.
Here’s a look at the NFC field.
No. 1: Green Bay Packers (13-4)
Offense: Red zone (ninth), Third down (19th)
Defense: Red zone (23rd), Third down (28th)
Cumulative Ranking: 79 (19.8 average).
Noteworthy: The Packers led the NFL with a touchdown rate of 80.0 percent in the red zone last season. This year, they scored at an 80 percent clip in only two games. At least they did better down the stretch with 20 touchdowns in 30 red-zone possessions (66.7 percent). Green Bay was No. 1 on third-and-1 (90.9 percent conversions) but 26th on third-and-7 through third-and-10 (28.0 percent). Aaron Rodgers finished second in third-down passer rating (112.2), and Davante Adams was sixth in chain-moving third-down catches (23) and second with 10 red-zone touchdowns. Defensively, there was nowhere to go but up after giving up 15 consecutive red-zone touchdowns to start the season. Why is the third-down defense so bad? The average third down requires 6.0 yards, shortest in the league.
No. 2: Tampa Bay Buccaneers (13-4)
Offense: Red zone (second), Third down (second)
Defense: Red zone (12th), Third down (10th)
Cumulative Ranking: 26 (6.5 average).
Noteworthy: While the Packers are by far the worst among the NFC playoff teams in situational football, the Buccaneers are by far the best. If it’s a Packers-Buccaneers rematch in the NFC Championship Game, the Tom Brady-led Bucs offense vs. the Joe Barry-coached Packers defense looks like a colossal mismatch. Brady threw 30 touchdowns vs. zero interceptions in the red zone, with Mike Evans finishing fourth with nine red-zone touchdowns. They’ll miss receiver Chris Godwin, who finished second with 20 red-zone catches but is out with a torn ACL. On third down, Brady was third in passer rating (110.9) and first in touchdowns (17). Evans moved the chains 20 times. The Bucs were second on third-and-1 behind only Green Bay but 20th on third-and-7 through third-and-10. By ranking fifth in goal-to-go defense, the Bucs finished sixth in points allowed despite being 13th in yards.
No. 3: Dallas Cowboys (12-5)
Offense: Red zone (11th), Third down (sixth)
Defense: Red zone (second), Third down (21st)
Cumulative Ranking: 40 (10.0 average).
Noteworthy: The Cowboys finished second in the NFC playoff field in our situational rankings. Their third-down defense is surprisingly weak considering the rookie domination of linebacker Micah Parsons and cornerback Trevon Diggs – though they did tie Green Bay with a league-high 11 interceptions on third down. Critically, they forced a lot of field goals in the red zone. Offensively, Dak Prescott was fifth in third-down passer rating (106.4) and had 26 touchdowns vs. one interception in the red zone. The Cowboys were eighth on third-and-1 but a shockingly bad 29th on third-and-7 through third-and-10.
No. 4: L.A. Rams (12-5)
Offense: Red zone (seventh), Third down (15th)
Defense: Red zone (21st), Third down (eighth)
Cumulative Ranking: 51 (12.8 average).
Noteworthy: Quarterback Matthew Stafford finished seventh in third-down passer rating (104.3) but tossed seven interceptions, tied with Patrick Mahomes for second most in the league behind Ryan Tannehill’s 10. The Rams were awful on third-and-1 (30th) but sixth on third-and-7 through third-and-10 and third on third-and-11-plus. Cooper Kupp produced 26 first-down receptions on third down, third-most in the league. Their average third down required 6.1 yards, tied with Philadelphia for the shortest distance required. Stafford threw 32 touchdowns vs. just one interception in the red zone. Defensively, the Rams allowed only four touchdowns on third down and recorded five red-zone takeaways, both second-best in the league.
No. 5: Arizona Cardinals (11-6)
Offense: Red zone (fifth), Third down (15th)
Defense: Red zone (10th), Third down (19th)
Cumulative Ranking: 49 (12.3 average).
Noteworthy: With an elite athlete such as Kyler Murray at quarterback, defensive coordinators will always have to hold their breath. Murray’s 119.5 passer rating on third down was tops in the NFL. With the season on the line, he figures to be more of a running threat. On third-and-7 through third-and-10, they converted 50.0 percent of the time, by far the best rate in the league. Running back James Conner was one of the best on third down (18 first downs, tied with Dallas’ Ezekiel Elliott for fourth) and in the red zone (15 touchdowns, first).
No. 6: San Francisco 49ers (10-7)
Offense: Red zone (first), Third down (14th)
Defense: Red zone (17th), Third down (15th)
Cumulative Ranking: 47 (11.8).
Noteworthy: San Francisco finished first in red-zone touchdown percentage but faltered a bit down the stretch by going 5-of-12 in the final three games. Critically, it had just one red-zone giveaway. Defensively, the Niners’ red-zone defense was mediocre but finished seventh in goal-to-go situations. The 49ers led the league with 25 sacks on third down, led by Nick Bosa’s 7.5. They held the opponent to 33.3 percent or less on third down in eight games.
No. 7: Philadelphia Eagles (9-8)
Offense: Red zone (fourth), Third down (eighth)
Defense: Red zone (23rd), Third down (29th)
Cumulative Ranking: 64 (16.0 average).
Noteworthy: The offensive success revolves around the dual-threat talent of quarterback Jalen Hurts. On third down, he finished second in the league by rushing for 22 first downs. In the red zone, he threw 13 touchdown passes and rushed for nine more while tallying 15 first downs. The Eagles’ average third down requires 6.1 yards, tied for the shortest distance in the league. The situational defense was the worst among the playoff teams, just a nose ahead of Green Bay.
