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NFL.com’s Jeremiah Warns Against Banking on Second-Round Receiver Success

The Packers have made a killing with second-round receivers over the years. Here's why it might not be prudent to bank on that history repeating itself.
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GREEN BAY, Wis. – The Green Bay Packers, whose Super Bowl aspirations might hinge on their ability to find an instant-impact receiver in the 2022 NFL Draft, have made a killing on finding big-time receivers in the second round.

That run started with Greg Jennings in 2006 and continued with Jordy Nelson in 2008, Randall Cobb in 2011 and Davante Adams in 2014.

General manager Brian Gutekunst might have been tempted to go that route again in this year’s draft. However, the massive wads of cash handed out to receivers who are great (Tyreek Hill, Davante Adams) and not-so-great (Christian Kirk) perhaps hint at receivers flying off the board on Thursday night as teams hope to land a star receiver without paying star-receiver money.

“Every year, it seems like I feel like teams are getting these unbelievable values and people say, ‘Oh, yeah, the second and third round is the sweet spot,’ NFL.com draft analyst Daniel Jeremiah said in a conference call on Thursday.

Along with the fleet of Packers stars, Seattle’s DK Metcalf, San Francisco’s Deebo Samuel and Tennessee’s A.J. Brown were second-round picks in 2019 who have been selected to a Pro Bowl.

Jeremiah recalls watching drafts and seeing receivers with first-round ability falling into Day 2. He’s not so sure that will happen this year.

“I think what's going to happen is there's going to be a little bit of a correction there and you're going to see these receivers going more closely to where they're slotted and where they're graded,” Jeremiah said. “I don't think teams are going to be pushing them down as much as they were in the past, knowing that they can just afford to wait. It's too expensive to go get one of these veterans.”

Nine receivers are making at least $20 million per season, with most of those contracts being signed this offseason. Samuel and Metcalf are sure to join that list.

“Seeing the cost of these wideouts and what it's going to take to procure one of them on the open market, and that number gets north of $20 million,” Jeremiah said. Instead, “You get cost control on a player like that at that price for four years plus a fifth-year option versus having to go the veteran route and having to pay that huge, huge number to get a premium guy.”

A deep draft class awaits Gutekunst and his receiver-hungry peers. It’s not as top heavy as some past drafts but the talent will easily flow well into Day 2 – a big deal for the Packers, who own two picks in the first round and two more in the second.

“There’s not a Ja'Marr Chase. I would have a higher grade on Ja'Marr Chase than anybody in this group,” Jeremiah said. “Devonta Smith, I would have a higher grade. Same with Jaylen Waddle. I would probably take those guys over anybody in this group. But I really like this group. There’s six or seven guys that you really like there at the top. I don't think the depth into like the fourth round and beyond is as good as some of the others we've seen, but I think up until that point it's pretty good.”

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