One Exec’s Compromise Packers-Jets Trade Package

With trade talks involving Aaron Rodgers apparently going nowhere fast, this proposal could satisfy with the Packers and the Jets.

Author:
Bill Huber
Publish date:
Mar 22, 2023 7:57 AM EDT

In this story:

Green Bay Packers

GREEN BAY, Wis. – The Green Bay Packers reportedly want at least a first-round draft pick for Aaron Rodgers. The New York Jets, with their eyes on the championship prize, don’t want to give up that coveted No. 13 pick of this year’s draft.

The Packers, knowing the Jets need Rodgers, have some leverage in their favor.

The Jets, knowing the Packers want to start the Jordan Love era and get out from under the rest of Rodgers’ contract, have some leverage in their favor, too.

Something has to give. And it will. Both teams need to make it happen and will figure out a way. There is no Plan B at quarterback for the Jets. There isn’t even a competent backup available in free agency at this point, let alone a quarterback good enough to elevate the rest of the team. The Packers can’t be burdened by the contract of a quarterback who’s no longer in their plans.

One team executive continues to believe Rodgers is worth a first-round pick, even given the financial considerations. But what if the Jets don’t want to give it up? Remember, they need a left tackle, too, and No. 13 appears to a sweet spot to get that player.

So, here’s his workaround.

- 2023 second-round pick.

- 2023 third-round pick.

- Additional conditional picks in 2024.

If you look at the Rich Hill trade value chart, the Jets’ slots with those Day 2 picks in 2023 add up to the equivalent of the 29th pick of the first round. So, it’s not a first-rounder, like the Packers want, but it’s the equivalent.

It’s just not the 13th pick of the first round.

That’s where those additional conditional picks in 2024 – let’s make them third- and fourth-rounders – come into play.

For the sake of example, let’s say Rodgers leads the Jets to the AFC Championship Game. If they lose that game and wind up with the 28th pick of every round, the combined value of the Day 2 picks in 2023 and the two picks in 2024 become the equivalent of the 21st pick.

This is where the conditions come into play. If the Jets finish 9-8 and Rodgers calls it quits as a failed one-year rental, those 2024 third- and fourth-rounders would stay in place.

Now, if Rodgers leads the Jets to a Super Bowl victory, that third-rounder could become a first. If the Jets don’t win the championship but Rodgers returns for 2024, that third-rounder could become a second. If Rodgers wins the Super Bowl and comes back for another season, maybe those picks are elevated to a first and a third.

There are any number of possibilities available to link the Jets’ success with Rodgers, and a potential second year together, to greater compensation for Green Bay.

The other option is a pick and a player.

“What’s Elijah Moore worth if you traded for him today?” the executive asked of the third-year receiver. “A second? OK, a second-round pick and Elijah Moore, combined, that’s worth a solid 1.”

Indeed it is. Take the point value of the Jets’ slot at No. 43 overall and double it, that’s the equivalent of the 19th pick. Now, throw in a conditional 2024 pick (or picks) that grows in value based on the Jets’ success and Rodgers’ return for 2024 to sweeten the pot.

A third possibility is the Packers could trade Rodgers for a 2024 first-round pick. In theory, that could be a win-win. It would keep an expensive draft pick off Green Bay’s tight salary cap and give them an extra No. 1 in what is expected to be a better draft, and it would allow the Jets to use this year’s No. 13 pick to improve what they believe to be a championship-level roster.

The executive liked that idea for the Jets – “What does (Jets GM Joe Douglas) care about the 2024 draft if he’s been fired?” because the trade didn’t work – but not so much for Green Bay.

“If Gutey (Packers GM Brian (Gutekunst) is wrong on Jordan, he’s going to get fired. If Aaron wins a Super Bowl for the Jets and the Packers suck, he’s going to get fired,” the executive said. “So, he needs those picks now to give Jordan the best chance for success.”