Opposing Defenses Could Help Love Surpass Expectations

The over/under on Jordan Love’s passing total has been set. A relatively weak slate of defenses could help him blow past that number.

Author:
Bill Huber
Publish date:
May 25, 2023 9:17 AM EDT

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Green Bay Packers

GREEN BAY, Wis. – Fair or not, Jordan Love will forever be compared to Aaron Rodgers.

In Rodgers’ first year as the Green Bay Packers’ starting quarterback, he ranked fourth in the NFL with 4,038 passing yards, sixth in passer rating (93.8) and fourth in touchdown passes (28). The Packers went 6-10, though, due in large part to a 1-7 record in games decided by four points or less.

In Brett Favre’s first year as the Packers’ starter, he ranked ninth with 3,227 passing yards, sixth in passer rating (85.3) and eighth in touchdown passes (18). With a late six-game winning streak, Green Bay went 9-7 and just missed the playoffs.

So, what’s in store for Love in his debut season as the starter?

FanDuel Sportsbook recently posted over/unders on passing yards. Love’s opening number has been set at 3,400.5 yards. That would have ranked 15th in the league last season.

Working in Love’s favor is the schedule. Using opponent passer rating as the guide, the Packers will face only two opponents that had top-10 passing defenses last season: the New Orleans Saints in Love’s Lambeau Field debut and the Denver Broncos on the road.

On the other hand, the Packers will play a dozen games against defenses that finished 20th or worse last year. That includes all six games against the NFC North triumvirate of the Detroit Lions, Minnesota Vikings and Chicago Bears. Four of the first five games will be against teams that finished 25th or worse.

Obviously, teams evolve. The Lions, for instance, retooled their secondary via free agency and the draft and should be much better in 2023.

Nonetheless, the schedule lines up nicely for Love to get off to a strong start and have a solid first season as the team’s new starting quarterback. In fact, if Love and the young receivers gel, he could be a darkhorse MVP candidate. (More on that in a moment.)

Looking at the Packers’ 2023 schedule, here are the 17 matchups and their opponent passer ratings in 2022.

Chicago Bears: 26th

Atlanta Falcons: 29th

New Orleans Saints: 9th

Detroit Lions: 25th

Las Vegas Raiders: 32nd

Bye Week

Denver Broncos: 7th

Minnesota Vikings: 21st

Los Angeles Rams: 20th

Los Angeles Chargers: 14th

Pittsburgh Steelers: 12th

Detroit Lions: 25th

Kansas City Chiefs: 27th

New York Giants: 18th

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 22nd

Carolina Panthers: 24th

Minnesota Vikings: 21st

Chicago Bears: 26th

Could Love make a run at MVP? That seems far-fetched but he’s +3500 at FanDuel, the 15th-shortest odds. That’s tied with the Saints’ Derek Carr and better than the Broncos’ Russell Wilson and the Vikings’ Kirk Cousins. Buffalo’s Josh Allen, Cincinnati’s Joe Burrow and Kansas City’s Patrick Mahomes are the tri-favorite at +700; Rodgers is +1600.