Packers at Bears: Three Reasons for Hope

The Green Bay Packers have lost seven of their last eight games. The Chicago Bears have lost eight of their last nine. They’ll meet on Sunday at Soldier Field.

Author:
Bill Huber
Publish date:
Dec 3, 2022 11:10 AM EST

In this story:

Green Bay Packers

GREEN BAY, Wis. – The Bears still suck, or so goes the classic song from The Happy Schnapps Combo. The Packers aren’t so hot, either.

These longtime rivals will slug it out at Soldier Field on Sunday. The Packers are 1-7 following a 3-1 start, but they are 7-0 vs. Chicago under coach Matt LaFleur. Something’s got to give. For most of the season, the Packers have been the ones doing the giving. Not this time. Here are three reasons why the Packers will win for the 47th time in the last 61 meetings.

Aaron Rodgers vs. the Bears

Past results are not indicative of future performance. That’s the financial disclaimer for investing and it should be the disclaimer for a 39-year-old quarterback with a broken thumb and injured ribs.

Rodgers has owned the Bears. He’s 23-5 in regular-season play against Chicago. Include the 2010 NFC Championship Game and eliminate the 2013 game in which he suffered a broken collarbone on the opening series, that improves to an unfathomable 24-4. Rodgers has thrown 63 touchdown passes in the 28 starts. That would be tied for fifth on the Bears’ all-time list.

Does that history mean anything for Sunday? Of course not. But Rodgers will be facing a defense that wasn’t very good to begin with, then traded pass rusher Robert Quinn (second in sacks last year) and linebacker Roquan Smith (fifth in tackles last year) and this week placed safety Eddie Jackson (third with four interceptions this year) on injured reserve. That’s their best pass rusher, best defender and best turnover-producer.

With Chicago ranked 24th in yards allowed per carry, Rodgers should have the opportunity for some easy play-action completions against a defense that’s 31st in yards per pass attempt and has just four sacks in the five games since trading Quinn.

“When you’re replacing a guy like that, that’s a tough guy to replace but I still think they’ve got a lot of capable guys up front and they do a nice job of bringing timely pressures,” Packers coach Matt LaFleur said.

Christian Watson vs. Depleted DBs

The Packers are arguably the biggest disappointment in the NFL but at least rookie receiver Christian Watson has emerged as a potential star. He’s scored six touchdowns the last three weeks, an absurd stretch of explosive athleticism blended with exploding confidence. In those three games alone, Watson has more touchdowns than the average of the five reigning All-Pros have for their entire seasons.

Chicago’s secondary is in rough shape. Top cornerback Jaylon Johnson will be in the lineup but two rookie starters – top-flight safety Jaquan Brisker and cornerback Kyler Gordon – are out and the aforementioned Eddie Jackson is on injured reserve. That’s three-fifths of the starting secondary, including the duo of safeties.

Johnson and Kindle Vildor have started at corner all season. Johnson, a second-round pick in 2020, is a high-quality player but isn’t a big-time athlete with 4.50 speed in the 40. Vildor, a fifth-round pick in 2020, has 4.44 speed but didn’t quite reach 5-foot-10 at the Scouting Combine. With Gordon out, undrafted rookie Jaylon Jones will get considerable action. He ran 4.41 at Ole Miss’ pro day and has allowed an 83.3 percent catch rate, according to Pro Football Focus.

Last week, Jets backup Mike White was 5-of-6 for 155 yards and three touchdowns on passes thrown 10-plus yards downfield. Rookie Garrett Wilson scored two of those touchdowns. So long as Rodgers can fight through the pain, there should be opportunities to hit Watson for big plays.

Bounce-Back Defense

Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts ran for 157 yards against the Packers on Sunday night. It was an embarrassing performance. The talking point from the coaches all week was about the 22 missed tackles. And that’s true, but the Eagles also had 154 yards before contact. So, in a game of two-hand touch, the Packers still would have gotten destroyed by Hurts and running back Miles Sanders.

Hurts might have set the single-game quarterback rushing record had Eagles coach Nick Sirianni turned him loose more in the second half. That record was set a few weeks ago by Bears quarterback Justin Fields with his 178 yards vs. Miami, highlighted by a 61-yard touchdown. For an encore, he ran for 147 a week later against Detroit, highlighted by a 67-yard touchdown.

There’s one difference between the Eagles and the Bears, though: the state of their passing games.

At this point in their careers, Hurts is a much better passer than Fields. And Hurts has a much better group of receivers, with premier veteran A.J. Brown and first-round pick DeVonta Smith. With Darnell Mooney going on injured reserve this week, Fields’ best receivers are Chase Claypool, who was acquired at the trade deadline, and former Packers receiver Equanimeous St. Brown.

In other words, the Packers couldn’t sell out to stop the Hurts-led Eagles rushing attack. They can sell out to stop Fields and running back David Montgomery. The Packers’ defenders may or may not want to play for coordinator Joe Barry, but they probably don’t want to be embarrassed again, either.

“We’ve got to just be better all around,” defensive tackle Kenny Clark said. “We’ve got to get better in our alignments and all that kind of stuff and play box better, play more downhill. As far as from our perspective as defensive linemen, knock back the line of scrimmage and all that kind of stuff. They’ve got another running quarterback that we’re going against and they use him very well. We’ve got to get that right.”