The Ultimate Packers Draft Preview: Defensive Line
Here’s a look at the Green Bay Packers’ defensive line situation ahead of the NFL Draft, including pertinent history and 10 potential draft picks.
State of the Packers
Kenny Clark is a stud but who else do the Packers have up front? Dean Lowry’s play took a step backward after his contract extension, from three sacks and 2.4 yards per tackle in 2018 to zero sacks and 2.6 yards per tackle in 2019. Montravius Adams looks like a third-round bust. Because Adams hasn’t panned out, Tyler Lancaster probably played too much and was exposed. Last year’s fifth-round pick, Kingsley Keke, barely played as a rookie. The 49ers exposed all of those problems in their two matchups, especially the NFC Championship Game. An instant-impact defender would help for obvious reasons, plus would reduce the workloads of Lowry and Lancaster.
Based on History, Maybe You Can Forget …
Since the move to a 3-4 scheme in 2008, the Packers have selected 16 defensive linemen. Generally speaking, they prefer athletes. The Scouting Combine average for a defensive lineman in the 40-yard dash is 5.11, according to MockDraftable.com. The Packers’ average is 5.00. Since B.J. Raji in 2010, only one Packers pick has run slower than the Combine average: Josh Boyd, who missed the mark by 0.03.
The Combine average for the three-cone drill is 7.67 seconds. The Packers’ average is 7.52.Only two Packers picks were slower than the Combine average: 337-pound Raji and the bust that was Khyri Thornton, who sticks out like a sore thumb.
The Combine average in the 20-yard shuttle – always a key tool for the Packers – is 4.63 seconds. The Packers’ average is 4.55. Only five Packers ran slower: Harrell, Raji, Boyd (by 0.01 seconds), Thornton and Adams. While Adams ran a poor 4.89 in the shuttle, apparently his 4.87 in the 40 made up for it.
Who was slower than the Combine average of 5.11 in the 40? The Mississippi duo of Benito Jones (5.26) and Josiah Coatney (5.21) were the caboose, ahead of Nebraska’s Darrion Daniels (5.18), Auburn’s Derrick Brown (5.16), Utah’s Leki Fotu (5.15), Ohio State’s Davon Hamilton (5.14) and Alabama’s Raekwon Davis.
Who was slower than the Combine average of 7.67 in the three-cone drill? Many of the same names, it turns out. Auburn’s Brown ran the slowest (8.22), ahead of the Mississippi duo of Jones (8.21) and Coatney (8.07), LSU’s Rashard Lawrence (8.03), Oklahoma’s Neville Gallimore (7.97), Alabama’s Davis (7.95), N.C. State’s Larrell Murchison (7.89), TCU’s Ross Blacklock (7.77), Nebraska’s Daniels (7.72) and Michigan State’s Raequan Williams (7.72).
Who was slower in the shuttle than the Combine average of 4.63? Again, there are some familiar names. Ole Miss’ Jones was by far the slowest (5.27), ahead of Oklahoma’s Gallimore (5.01), Nebraska’s Daniels (4.93), Utah’s John Penisini (4.93), Alabama’s Davis (4.86), Ole Miss’ Coatney (4.82), Auburn’s Brown (4.79), Michigan State’s Williams (4.78), Missouri’s Jordan Elliott (4.73), Mississippi State’s Chauncey Rivers (4.70) and TCU’s Blacklock (4.67).
Based on these three results, the highly touted Brown of Auburn, Gallimore of Oklahoma and Davis of Alabama, as well as Mississippi’s Jones and Coatney, Nebraska’s Daniels and LSU’s Lawrence might be off the board. Blacklock fell short in two of the three categories but killed the 40 (4.90). Based on Adams' Combine, he'll probably be a consideration.
Potential Draft Fits
(For much more on each of the prospects check out the links at the end of the story.)
First Round
Ross Blacklock, TCU: Blacklock tied for the team lead with 3.5 sacks while tying for second with nine tackles for losses. According to Pro Football Focus, he finished sixth in run-stop percentage, a metric that measures impact tackles. The athleticism is obvious. He ran his 40 in 4.90 seconds; his 10-yard time of 1.70 was the third-fastest of the defensive linemen at the Combine. His father, Jimmy Blacklock, was a former point guard for the Harlem Globetrotters and is in his fifth season as full-time coach.
Second Round (Trading Back)
Jordan Elliott, Missouri: Elliott recorded three sacks and 10 tackles for losses to earn second-team All-American. Going inside the numbers, Elliott’s season was more impressive. Of our top 25 defensive line prospects, Elliott ranked eighth with a pressure rate of 10 percent, according to Sports Info Solutions. Against the run, he was eighth in ProFootballFocus.com’s run-stop percentage.
Marlon Davidson, Auburn: Davidson started 51 games. As a senior, he was a team captain and second-team All-American. He piled up 7.5 sacks and 12.5 tackles for losses in 2019, numbers that rank second among our top 25 defensive line prospects. His pressure rate of 14 percent is tied for first but he mostly rushed from the edge.
Second and Third Rounds
James Lynch, Baylor: Lynch had a prodigious final season with 13.5 sacks, 19.5 tackles for losses, five passes defensed, three forced fumbles and two blocked kicks to be a unanimous first-team All-American and the Big 12’s Defensive Player of the Year. As is the case with Davidson, Lynch rushed from the edge.
DaVon Hamilton, Ohio State: A first-time starter as a senior, he posted six sacks and 10.5 tackles for losses in 2019. All of the sacks and 7.5 of the TFLs came during the final six Big Ten games and the national playoffs against Clemson.
Leki Fotu, Utah: Want a run-stopper? As a senior, Fotu earned some second-team All-American honors with one sack and nine tackles for losses. Of our top 25 defensive tackles, Fotu ranked seventh in PFF’s run-stop percentage
Fourth and Fifth Rounds
McTelvin Agim, Arkansas: Agim put up steady production in four seasons, finishing with career totals of 14.5 sacks, 31 tackles for losses and six forced fumbles. Agim posted five sacks and 8.5 TFLs as a senior. He ranked fifth in PFF’s run-stop percentage.
Rob Windsor, Penn State: Born in Green Bay and raised in Fond du Lac, Windsor earned all-Big Ten third-team honors each of his final two seasons. As a senior, he tallied 3.5 sacks and five tackles for losses. Of our top 25 defensive linemen, he tied for ninth with a pressure rate of 10 percent.
Sixth and Seventh Rounds
Khalil Davis, Nebraska: Built like Mike Daniels, he had eight sacks and 11 tackles for losses among a career-high 44 tackles as a senior. At the Combine, he was the fastest defensive lineman in the 40 (4.75 seconds) and the initial 10 yards (1.66).
Calvin Taylor, Kentucky: At the other extreme in builds is Taylor. At 6-foot-7 5/8, Taylor looks like a basketball player. He was in high school and remains raw. But he had 8.5 sacks as a senior.
