Packers Favored in 15 of 17 Games
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GREEN BAY, Wis. – The Green Bay Packers will finish the 2022 NFL season with a 15-2 record. At least that’s the projection based on the weekly point spreads at the Westgate SuperBook in Las Vegas.
The Westgate has set lines for all 272 games. Green Bay is an underdog only twice: the Week 3 game at the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the Week 8 game at the Buffalo Bills.
The Washington Post used those point spreads to create power rankings. Part of the findings?
The top team in the NFL, by this analysis, is the Buffalo Bills, projected to be 5.9 points per game better than an average team. Next comes the Kansas City Chiefs (5.0), Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4.8), Los Angeles Rams (4.2) and Green Bay Packers (4.0). While all five of those teams made the playoffs last season, three of the five were eliminated in the divisional round.
At SuperBook, the over/under win total for Green Bay in 2022 is 11 wins. In the NFC, the Bucs are projected to win a conference-high 11.5 wins – tied with the Bills for tops in the NFL. Green Bay follows, with the Dallas Cowboys (10.5), Los Angeles Rams (10.5) and San Francisco 49ers (10) in pursuit.
The Buccaneers are favored in a league-high 16 of 17 games. They will benefit from a scheduling quirk in which their toughest games – the Packers in Week 3, Chiefs in Week 4 and Rams in Week 9 – are at home. The 49ers are a pick over the visiting Bucs in Week 14.
Interestingly, popular belief is the home team gets a 3-point advantage from bookmakers. Instead, the Packers are 2-point favorites at Minnesota in Week 1 and 6 1/2-point favorites in the home rematch in Week 17; the Packers are 10-point favorites at home against Chicago in Week 2 and 7-point favorites at Chicago in Week 13, and the Packers are 6 1/2-point favorites at Detroit in Week 9 and 7-point favorites at home in Week 18.
The Post’s story determined home field was worth, on average, 1.8 points.
Point Spreads for Every Packers Game in 2022
Week 1: At Minnesota Vikings
Date, time and TV: Sunday, Sept. 11, 3:25 p.m., Fox.
Point spread: Packers by 2.
Points for: 25.0 (14th). Points against: 25.1 (23rd).
Key additions: S Lewis Cine (first round), CB Andrew Booth (second round), G Ed Ingram (second round), LB Brian Asamoah (second round), OLB Za’Darius Smith (free agency), CB Chandon Sullivan (free agency), DT Harrison Phillips (free agency), LB Jordan Hicks (free agency).
Key departures: TE Tyler Conklin (free agency), DT Michael Pierce (free agency), S Xavier Woods (free agency), C Mason Cole (free agency).
Pregame warmups: The offense should be incredible with Kirk Cousins (fourth in passer rating), Dalvin Cook (fifth in rushing yards), Justin Jefferson (fourth in receptions, second in yards) and Adam Thielen. That group ran the Packers out of U.S. Bank Stadium last year, 34-31. Jefferson’s 3,016 receiving yards in his first two seasons are the most in NFL history. Odell Beckham held that mark with 2,755 yards.
The key will be the offensive line, which is young and made entirely of first- and second-round draft picks.
Week 2: Home vs. Chicago Bears
Date, time and TV: Sunday, Sept. 18, 7:20 p.m., NBC.
Point spread: Packers by 10.
2021 record: 6-11. Points for: 18.3 (27th). Points against: 23.9 (21st).
Key additions: CB Kyler Gordon (second round), S Jaquan Brisker (second round), WR Velus Jones (third round), C Lucas Patrick (free agency), DT Justin Jones (free agency), WR Byron Pringle (free agency).
Key losses: OLB Khalil Mack (trade), WR Allen Robinson (free agency), DT Eddie Goldman (released), RB Tarik Cohen (released).
Pregame warmups: The Packers swept the last three season series but will face a new challenge with the Bears firing Matt Nagy and hiring Matt Eberflus. Former Packers quarterbacks coach Luke Getsy will be the play-calling offensive coordinator. You can be sure that Getsy will be spilling a lot of beans to shed light on Aaron Rodgers and the rest of the Green Bay offense. For the 11th time in the past 12 years, Packers-Bears at Lambeau will be played under the primetime lights.
Fixing the Bears won’t be easy. Their projected receivers are Darnell Mooney, Equanimeous St. Brown, Pringle and Jones. And Robert Quinn – who had two sacks in 2020 but 18.5 in 2021 – is the only legitimate pass rusher.
Week 3: At Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Date, time and TV: Sunday, Sept. 25, 3:25 p.m., Fox
Point spread: Buccaneers by 3.
2021 record: 13-4. Points for: 30.1 (second). Points against: 20.8 (fifth).
Key additions: DE Logan Hall (first round), OL Luke Goedeke (second round), RB Rachaad White (third round), WR Russell Gage (free agency), G Shaq Mason (trade).
Key departures: G Alex Cappa (free agency), G Ali Marpet (retirement), S Jordan Whitehead (free agency), TE O.J. Howard (free agency).
Pregame warmups: Tom Brady quickly changed his mind about retiring, perhaps because he woke up one morning and remembered that, A, he’s really good and, B, his team is potentially great. Last season, Brady led the NFL in completions, passing yards and passing touchdowns. With Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Gage and, presumably, tight end Rob Gronkowski, there might not be a better group of pass-catching threats in the NFL. Contrast that group to Green Bay’s weapons that surround Aaron Rodgers.
This is a dominant team that won eight games by 13-plus points last season. And, of course, no one has been more dominant in NFL history than Brady, the seven-time Super Bowl champion who will turn 45 during training camp. Brady has thrown 86 touchdown passes in playoff games, almost as many as the next two players (Rodgers and Joe Montana with 45 apiece) combined.
There have been some personnel losses, and defensive coordinator Todd Bowles replaced Bruce Arians as coach. They are +700 to win the Super Bowl at SI Sportsbook, the second-shortest odds.
Week 4: Home vs. New England Patriots
Date, time and TV: Sunday, Oct. 2, 3:25 p.m., CBS
Point spread: Packers by 6.
2021 record: 7-10. Points for: 27.2 (sixth). Points against: 17.8 (second).
Key additions: OL Cole Strange (first round), WR Tyquan Thornton (second round), WR DeVante Parker (trade).
Key departures: CB J.C. Jackson (free agency), G Ted Karras (free agency), G Shaq Mason (trade), LB Kyle Van Noy (released).
Pregame warmups: Patriots coach Bill Belichick has a career record of 290-143. Last season, the Patriots went 10-7, a three-win improvement after going 7-9 in 2020. Before that, they incredibly won 10-plus games 17 consecutive seasons. With another season of 10 wins, Belichick will become the third coach in NFL history with 300 career victories. Including six Super Bowls, he’s won 31 playoff games; nobody else has won more than 20.
Their offense should be better in Year 2 under quarterback Mac Jones, who led all rookies with a 92.5 passer rating and 67.6 percent completion rate. The defense was great last season but lost premier cornerback J.C. Jackson to the Chargers.
Week 5: vs. New York Giants in London
Date, time and TV: Sunday, Oct. 9, 8:30 a.m., NFL Network.
Point spread: Packers by 7 1/2.
2021 record: 4-13. Points for: 15.2 (31st). Points against: 24.5 (23rd).
Key additions: DE Kayvon Thibodeaux (first round), OT Evan Neal (first round), WR Wan’Dale Robinson (second round), G Joshua Ezeudu (second round), G Mark Glowinski (free agency).
Key departures: CB James Bradberry (release), TE Evan Engram (free agency).
Pregame warmups: The Giants fired coach Joe Judge after two years on the job and replaced him with Brian Daboll, who built Josh Allen into a star in Buffalo. Quarterback Danny Jones, the sixth pick in the 2019 draft, has thrown 21 touchdowns vs. 17 interceptions the past two seasons and finished 26th in passer rating last year. Meanwhile, is running back Saquon Barkley still good? He led the NFL with 2,028 scrimmage yards as a rookie in 2018 but had just 856 in 2021 after missing most of 2020 with a torn ACL. His yards per touch plunged from 5.8 in 2018 to 4.2 in 2021. The key offensively will be the health of Barkley and receivers Kenny Golladay and Kadarius Toney.
The defense has finished 23rd or worse in points allowed four of the past five seasons. That group is led by former Packers linebacker Blake Martinez, who had 140-plus tackles five consecutive seasons until missing most of last season with an injury.
The Giants beat Miami 13-10 in London in the first-ever International Series game in 2007. They also beat the Rams in 2016.
Week 6: Home vs. New York Jets
Date, time and TV: Sunday, Oct. 16, noon, Fox
Point spread: Packers by 9 1/2.
2021 record: 4-13. Points for: 18.2 (28th). Points against: 29.6 (32nd).
Key additions: CB Ahmad Gardner (first round), WR Garrett Wilson (first round), DE Jermaine Johnson (first round), RB Breece Hall (second round), G Laken Tomlinson (free agency), CB D.J. Reed (free agency), TE C.J. Uzomah (free agency), S Jermaine Whitehead (free agency), TE Tyler Conklin (free agency).
Key departures: DT Folorunso Fatukasi (free agency), S Marcus Maye (free agency), RT Morgan Moses (free agency).
Pregame warmups: The Jets, who visited Green Bay last year for joint practices and a preseason game, finished 4-13 under first-year coach Robert Saleh. Rookie quarterback Zach Wilson, the second pick of the 2021 draft, finished last in the NFL in passer rating and the defense finished last in the league in points allowed. However, they did beat Cincinnati, which advanced out of the AFC to last year’s Super Bowl.
Packers coach Matt LaFleur and Saleh are close friends. They started together as graduate assistants at Central Michigan and were groomsmen at each other’s weddings.
“It’s pretty special. He’s like a brother to me,” LaFleur said at the league’s spring meetings. “I think that there’s a real opportunity for the Jets to take another step in the right direction. Certainly, it’s never easy when there’s transition and you come in with a roster as young as they have, and I would say there’s been a lot of turnover on that roster in two years.
“It’s about making those incremental steps that nobody wants to ever hear about because we live in this world of instant gratification and, if you’re not a playoff team, everybody’s disappointed. Or, if you’re not winning the Super Bowl, everybody’s disappointed. So, I think you can’t be short-sighted in this deal. It is a process, and some teams are more equipped to win now. With the situation that I encountered, with more of a veteran team with obviously a Hall of Fame quarterback, the expectations should be a little bit different. I know nobody wants to hear that, nobody wants to talk about that, but that’s real. I think he did an outstanding job and I am excited about the future of the New York Jets.”
Week 7: Washington Commanders
Date, time and TV: Sunday, Oct. 23, noon, Fox
Point spread: Packers by 4.
2021 record: 7-10. Points for: 19.7 (24th). Points against: 25.5 (24th).
Key additions: WR Jahan Dotson (first round), DT Phidarian Mathis (second round), RB Brian Robinson (third round), QB Carson Wentz (trade), G Andrew Norwell (free agency), G Trai Turner (free agency).
Key departures: G Brandon Scherff (free agency), DT Matt Ioannidis (released), S Landon Collins (released).
Pregame warmups: Everybody won in the Wentz trade. The Colts were thrilled to get a second-round draft pick for a quarterback they didn’t want, and the Commanders were happy to get a quarterback who’s had at least some success after finishing in the bottom 10 in scoring the last four seasons.
Wentz looked like an MVP in 2017, when he went 11-2 as the Eagles’ starter with a 101.9 passer rating. But he threw a league-worst 15 interceptions with the Eagles in 2020, then lost to Las Vegas and Jacksonville in the final games of 2021 to keep the Colts out of the playoffs. Terry McLaurin, Curtis Samuel and Dotson provide a potentially strong trio of receivers. Defensively, Washington’s front features four first-round picks.
Week 8: At Buffalo Bills
Date, time and TV: Sunday, Oct. 30, 7:20 p.m., NBC
Point spread: Bills by 3 1/2.
2021 record: 11-6. Points for: 28.4 (third). Points against: 17.0 (first).
Key additions: CB Kaiir Elam (first round), RB James Cook (second round), OLB Von Miller (free agency), DT DaQuan Jones (free agency).
Key departures: DT Harrison Phillips (free agency), DT Star Lotulelei (released), CB Levin Wallace (free agency), DE Jerry Hughes (free agency).
Pregame warmups: The Bills are the Super Bowl favorites, and for good reason, after winning 11 games by 14-plus points last season before losing a legendary AFC Championship clash at Kansas City in overtime. With quarterback Josh Allen, they’ve got a field-tilting weapon who finished last season ranked eighth in passing yards and seventh in touchdown passes. Combined with his rushing total, he accumulated 42 touchdowns. Premier receiver Stefon Diggs caught 103 passes for 1,225 yards and 10 touchdowns. With playoff star Gabriel Davis, veteran slot Jamison Crowder, tight end Dawson Knox and the backfield tandem of Devin Singletary and Cook, Allen is surrounded by an array of weapons.
Oh, and the defense ranked No. 1 in yards allowed, No. 1 in passing yards allowed, No. 1 on third down and No. 6 in the red zone.
Week 9: At Detroit Lions
Date, time and TV: Sunday, Nov. 6, noon, Fox
Point spread: Packers by 6 1/2.
2021 record: 3-13-1. Points for: 19.1 (25th). Points against: 27.5 (31st).
Key additions: DE Aidan Hutchinson (first round), WR Jameson Williams (first round), DE Josh Paschal (second round), S Kerby Joseph (third round), WR D.J. Chark (free agency), CB Mike Hughes (free agency).
Key departure: DE Trey Flowers (released), LB Jalen Reeves-Maybin (free agency).
Pregame warmups: Coach Dan Campbell kept the Lions’ fire burning hot last season, his first in Detroit, leading to hope he can turn around a perennial loser. The Lions have finished in last place each of the last four seasons, haven’t reached the playoffs since 2016 and haven’t won a playoff game since 1991. Given the way the NFL is structured, it is almost impossible to be so consistently terrible.
The key will be the defense, which looks weak on paper even with the first three draft picks dedicated to fixing that side of the ball. The Lions finished 31st in points allowed last season. At least they weren’t 32nd, which was the case in 2020.
Week 10: Home vs. Dallas Cowboys
Date, time and TV: Sunday, Nov. 13, 3:25 p.m., Fox.
Point spread: Packers by 4 1/2.
2021 record: 12-5. Points for: 31.2 (first). Points against: 21.1 (seventh).
Key additions: OT Tyler Smith (first round), DE Sam Williams (second round), WR Jalen Tolbert (third round), DE Dante Fowler (free agency).
Key departures: WR Amari Cooper (trade), DE Randy Gregory (free agency), WR Cedrick Wilson (free agency), G Connor Williams (free agency).
Pregame warmups: This will be the return of coach Mike McCarthy. In 13 seasons in Green Bay, McCarthy fashioned a 125-77-2 record. He led the team to nine playoff berths, including eight in a row from 2009 through 2016. The Packers won the Super Bowl in 2010, reached NFC Championship Games in 2014 and 2016, and went 15-1 in 2011. They claimed six NFC North crowns under his watch. He was fired in 2018 after a 4-7-1 start.
Led by quarterback Dak Prescott, the Cowboys finished last season ranked No. 1 in points per game and yards per game and No. 2 in scoring differential. Rodgers led the NFL with a 111.9 passer rating; Prescott was third with a mark of 104.2.
Defensively, what can Micah Parsons (13 sacks, 20 tackles for losses) and Trevon Diggs (11 interceptions) do for encores?
Week 11: Home vs. Tennessee Titans
Date, time and TV: Thursday, Nov. 17, 7:15 p.m., Amazon Prime.
Point spread: Packers by 5 1/2.
2021 record: 12-5. Points for: 24.6 (15th). Points against: 20.8 (fifth).
Key additions: WR Treylon Burks (first round), CB Roger McCreary (second round), QB Malik Willis (third round), WR Robert Woods (trade).
Key departures: WR A.J. Brown (trade), G Rodger Saffold (released).
Pregame warmups: The Titans earned the No. 1 seed in the AFC playoffs and, like the Packers in the NFC, squandered a season’s worth of work by going one-and-done in the postseason. This will be a huge season for quarterback Ryan Tannehill. In 2019, he led the NFL with a 117.5 passer rating and 9.6 yards per attempt. Those numbers fell to 106.5 and 8.7 in 2020 and 89.6 and 7.0 in 2021.
The trade of premier receiver A.J. Brown won’t help matters; the return of running back Derrick Henry, on the other hand, could be his salvation. Henry led the NFL with 1,540 rushing yards and 16 rushing touchdowns in 2019 and 2,027 rushing yards and 17 rushing touchdowns in 2020. An injury limited him to eight games last year but he still rushed for 937 yards, which is more than Green Bay’s Aaron Jones accumulated in 15 games.
Week 12: At Philadelphia Eagles
Date, time and TV: Sunday, Nov. 27, 7:20 p.m., NBC
Point spread: Packers by 2 1/2.
2021 record 9-8. Points for: 26.1 (12th). Points against: 22.6 (17th).
Key additions: WR A.J. Brown (trade), DE/LB Haason Reddick (free agency), LB Kyzir White (free agency), DT Jordan Davis (first round), C Cam Jurgens (second round), LB Nakobe Dean (third round).
Key departures: CB Steven Nelson (free agency), LB Alex Singleton (free agency).
Pregame warmups: In a league that’s all about throwing the football, no team ran the ball more than the Eagles, who were at almost exactly a 50-50 split last season. Quarterback Jalen Hurts threw for 3,144 yards and 16 touchdowns and led the team with 784 rushing yards and 10 more touchdowns. With the addition of Brown, he’s got a legit weapon in the quick game as well as deep shots.
Defensively, the Eagles ranked toward the bottom of the league in interception percentage, sack percentage, third down and red zone. Reddick should help the pass rush.
Week 13: At Chicago Bears
Date, time and TV: Sunday, Dec. 4, noon, Fox
Point spread: Packers by 7.
Points for: 18.3 (27th). Points against: 23.9 (21st).
Key additions: CB Kyler Gordon (second round), S Jaquan Brisker (second round), WR Velus Jones (third round), C Lucas Patrick (free agency), DT Justin Jones (free agency), WR Byron Pringle (free agency).
Key losses: OLB Khalil Mack (trade), WR Allen Robinson (free agency), DT Eddie Goldman (released), RB Tarik Cohen (released).
Pregame warmups: Including the 2010 NFC Championship Game, which the Packers won 21-14 at Soldier Field, Green Bay is 45-14 in the last 59 matchups. During those 59 games, the Bears have thrown 57 touchdown passes. In 27 career starts against the Bears, during which he’s fashioned a 22-5 record, Aaron Rodgers has thrown 57 touchdowns.
New offensive coordinator Luke Getsy’s No. 1 job will be getting quarterback Justin Fields to reach his potential. The 11th pick of last year’s draft, Fields really took his lumps with a 58.9 percent completion rate, seven touchdowns vs. 10 interceptions, and a woeful 73.2 rating.
Week 14: Bye
Pregame warmups: Instead of asking for their bye come after their London trip, the Packers instead chose to get a late-season week of rest and relaxation to get ready for the stretch run. Under LaFleur, the Packers beat Dallas coming out of their bye in 2019, got demolished at Tampa Bay in 2020 and rallied to take care of Chicago in 2021. That’s a 2-1 record – same as in the playoffs, with wins over Seattle in 2019 and the Rams in 2020 and last year’s loss to San Francisco.
Week 15: Home vs. Los Angeles Rams
Date, time and TV: Monday, Dec. 19, 7:15 p.m., ESPN.
Point spread: Packers by 2 1/2.
2021 record: 12-5. Points for: 27.1 (eighth). Points against: 21.9 (15th).
Key additions: WR Allen Robinson (free agency), LB Bobby Wagner (free agency), G Logan Bruss (third round), CB Troy Hill (trade).
Key departures: OLB Von Miller (free agency), WR Robert Woods (trade), CB Darious Williams (free agency), G Austin Corbett (free agency), LT Andrew Whitworth (retirement), DT Sebastian Joseph-Day (free agency), P Johnny Hekker (released).
Pregame warmups: The Rams lost at Green Bay in late November, a third consecutive loss that left their all-in approach on the verge of disaster. But they rebounded by winning five straight and then storming through the playoffs for a Super Bowl championship. Top receiver Cooper Kupp led the NFL with 145 receptions, 1,947 yards and 16 touchdowns during the regular season, then led the NFL with 33 receptions for 478 yards and six more touchdowns in the postseason.
In his Rams debut, Matthew Stafford finished sixth in rating (102.9), third in yards (4,886) and second in touchdowns (41). He also chucked 17 interceptions; a dropped interception in the NFC Championship vs. San Francisco almost doomed their season. The defense is led by legend-in-the-making defensive tackle Aaron Donald (98 sacks, 150 tackles for losses in eight seasons) and cornerback Jalen Ramsey.
It was an eventful offseason, with some huge offseason losses perhaps offset by the additions of Robinson and Wagner.
Week 16: at Miami Dolphins
Date, time and TV: Sunday, Dec. 25, noon, Fox
Point spread: Packers by 2 1/2.
2021 record: 9-8. Points for: 20.1 (22nd). Points against: 21.9 (15th).
Key additions: WR Tyreek Hill (trade), WR Cedrick Wilson (free agency), G Connor Williams (free agency), LT Terron Armstead (free agency), RB Chase Edmonds (free agency), FB Alec Ingold (free agency), LB Channing Tindall (third round).
Key departure: WR DeVante Parker (trade).
Pregame warmups: The Dolphins plucked Mike McDaniel off the Kyle Shanahan coaching tree, then had a monster offseason to build what could be a superb offense. The show will be directed by Tua Tagovailoa, who completed 67.8 percent of his passes last season. No team in the NFL can match the perimeter speed of Hill (111 receptions, 1,239 yards, nine touchdowns) and Jalen Waddle (104 receptions, 1,015 yards, six touchdowns). In fact, perhaps no team in the NFL can match the passing-game firepower of Hill, Waddle, Wilson and tight end Mike Gesicki. It will be up to Tagovailoa to bring it all together.
Defensively, cornerback Xavien Howard is one of the best in the business and the Dolphins finished fifth in sacks.
Week 17: Home vs. Minnesota Vikings
Date, time and TV: Sunday, Jan. 1, 3:25 p.m., CBS
Point spread: Packers by 6 1/2.
2021 record: 8-9. Points for: 25.0 (14th). Points against: 25.1 (23rd).
Key additions: S Lewis Cine (first round), CB Andrew Booth (second round), G Ed Ingram (second round), LB Brian Asamoah (second round), OLB Za’Darius Smith (free agency), CB Chandon Sullivan (free agency), DT Harrison Phillips (free agency), LB Jordan Hicks (free agency).
Key departures: TE Tyler Conklin (free agency), DT Michael Pierce (free agency), S Xavier Woods (free agency), C Mason Cole (free agency).
Pregame warmups: The Vikings fired longtime coach Mike Zimmer and replaced him with Kevin O’Connell, the latest coach harvested from the Sean McVay coaching tree. As part of that staff are former Packers defensive coordinator Ed Donatell (same position), former Packers defensive coordinator Mike Pettine (assistant head coach) and former Packers outside linebackers coach Mike Smith (same position).
Donatell’s got a lot of work to do. From 2015 through 2019, the Vikings recorded five consecutive top-10 finishes in points allowed. They ranked 29th in 2020 and 24th in 2021. Their new 3-4 scheme will feature Za’Darius Smith and Danielle Hunter as the pass-rushing outside linebackers. The early draft picks should help.
Week 18: Home vs. Detroit Lions
Date, time and TV: Saturday, Jan. 7, or Sunday, Jan. 8, Time TBA, TV TBA.
Point spread: Packers by 7.
2021 record: 3-13-1. Points for: 19.1 (25th). Points against: 27.5 (31st).
Key additions: DE Aidan Hutchinson (first round), WR Jameson Williams (first round), DE Josh Paschal (second round), S Kerby Joseph (third round), WR D.J. Chark (free agency), Cb Mike Hughes (free agency).
Key departure: DE Trey Flowers (released), LB Jalen Reeves-Maybin (free agency).
Pregame warmups: It’s a tradition unlike any other – the Packers closing the regular season against the Lions. This will be the seventh time in eight seasons, with Detroit winning last year’s meaningless finale at Ford Field.
Is Jared Goff the future of the Lions at quarterback? There will be no excuses because this is should be a legit receiver corps. So long as rookie receiver Jameson Williams is healthy, the quartet of Williams, Chark, Amon-Ra St. Brown and tight end T.J. Hockenson could be about as good as it gets in the NFL. The line should be a strength, too, with Taylor Decker and Penei Sewell as bookend tackles.
