Final Countdown to Kickoff: Packers, Jaguars and ‘Big Dreams’ of Super Bowl
GREEN BAY, Wis. – The Green Bay Packers, in the words of quarterback Aaron Rodgers, have some “big dreams” as they enter Sunday’s game against the Jacksonville Jaguars and the second half of the season with a 6-2 record.
Those big dreams, of course, aren’t simply about returning to the playoffs or winning the NFC North.
Rather, it’s winning a second Super Bowl in the Rodgers era.
It’s easy to dismiss their chances. They were slaughtered at Tampa Bay last month, no different than they were slaughtered by the San Francisco 49ers twice last season. Nonetheless, the people with the money in Las Vegas like their chances. At Westgate SuperBook, the Packers have the fourth-shortest championship odds at +800.
In order for coach Matt LaFleur to raise the Lombardi Trophy toward the lights of Tampa’s Raymond James Stadium on the night of Feb. 7, two things must happen. First, their run defense must get significantly better. Second, their offense must play at a high level of efficiency week after week.
Defensively, Green Bay enters Sunday ranked 21st in the NFL with 4.53 yards allowed per carry. Its last time at Lambeau Field, it was run off the field by Dalvin Cook and the Minnesota Vikings. However, it’s worth noting the Packers are capable of playing good run defense. Sandwiching that Vikings game were performances of 3.6 yards allowed per carry vs. Houston and 3.2 last week vs. San Francisco.
Defensive line coach Jerry Montgomery sees his group, led by defensive tackle Kenny Clark, rounding into form and “doing some unbelievable things.” Now, it’s about getting all 11 players doing their job at the same time and eliminating the breakdown here and breakdown there that’s plagued the defense at times.
“You don’t want to have knee-jerk reactions and scrap what you’re doing,” defensive coordinator Mike Pettine said on Thursday. “You just want to make sure you’re aware of why it’s happening. But I do think our guys bounced back last Thursday night [at San Francisco]. We know what they were facing from a roster standpoint. But, at the same time, that’s a run game that schematically can give you some trouble. And I thought our guys were locked in and did a good job executing the plan and, more importantly, executing the fundamentals. They won their one-on-one battle. We weren’t getting knocked back. We were locating the ball. We were violently separating. So, it was encouraging for the run defense on Thursday night.”
The Packers are 4-0 when allowing less than 4.5 yards per carry. Can they get to that level against the likes of the James Robinson-led Jaguars on Sunday (11th with 4.47 yards per carry), the Miles Sanders-led Eagles (fifth, 4.92) and the Derrick Henry-led Titans (eighth with 4.81)? How about Seattle (seventh, 4.87) or New Orleans (6.1 in Week 3) in the playoffs?
If the Packers can tighten up the run defense and get into more advantageous third-down situations, that potentially would cure other shortcomings such as pass rush and turnovers.
Offensively, the puzzle perhaps is coming together. Running back Aaron Jones returned last week. Left tackle David Bakhtiari figures to return on Sunday. Receiver Allen Lazard might be back next week.
Green Bay hasn’t had the whole crew together since the first half of the Week 2 game against Detroit. Nonetheless, even without Davante Adams for two games, Jones for two games, Bakhtiari the past three games and Lazard the last five games, the Packers are third in the NFL in scoring.
With Rodgers playing at an MVP level, Adams dominating in historic fashion, a running attack that’s ninth in yards per carry and a unit that is excellent on third down and superb at taking care of the football, LaFleur’s offense has maximized its potential most weeks. Now, does it have enough firepower to score against the likes of the Colts (third in points allowed) next week or the Bears (seventh in scoring) the following week or the finale?
“We have five home games in that stretch, which is nice as the weather turns here,” Rodgers said. “It should be interesting. But we’re playing some good football teams: obviously Chicago twice, who’s second in the division right now, Tennessee, Indianapolis, Philly, who’s a division leader, so there’s some tough games coming up. We’ve got to take care of business. To be 6-2 right now with the injuries that we’ve had and the circumstances feels really good. We’re not going to relax or get complacent, though. We’ve got a tough road ahead of us and some big dreams down the line.”
Jake, Not From State Farm
With struggling quarterback Gardner Minshew out with an injured thumb, the Jaguars will start sixth-round rookie Jake Luton for a second consecutive game.
In a 27-25 loss at the Houston Texans last week, Luton was 26-of-38 passing for 304 yards with one touchdown and one interception.
“Probably, work habits and his intelligence level, being able to pick things up” are what impressed Jaguars coach Doug Marrone, he said during a Wednesday conference call. “He prepared like he was a starter. He got some reps in training camp but, obviously, they were minimal. You can see he can throw, you can see all that stuff. He did a good job on the scout team watching him throw it. You never really know. I’ve seen a lot of guys do great jobs when they’re on the scout team and it’s a card telling you the routes and where to throw the football. When you get there in live action and real speed, it’s a whole different ballgame. I was impressed.”
Now that there’s some film of Luton, it will be up to Pettine to craft a winning game plan. After battling standout veteran quarterbacks in each of the first seven games, this will be the second consecutive game against a backup.
“You need to do some things that will confuse a young guy that maybe you wouldn’t get away with with a veteran,” Pettine said. “But you don’t want to overdo that and you don’t want that to be the basis of your plan. I think this kid’s an NFL quarterback, and he showed that last week that he can make a lot of the throws. He’s got a big arm, he’s a good athlete, scrambled for a touchdown late in the game. We’re not just chalking it up as, ‘Hey, rookie quarterback and we just have to get inside of his head.’ It’s the old cliché, it’s not about them. It’s about us. And we want our guys locked in and doing their jobs.”
Pressure Package
Jaguars defensive coordinator Todd Wash broke from script last week. A middle-of-the-pack blitzing team over the course of the season, he sent extra rushers on 19 of Deshaun Watson’s 40 dropbacks. That’s nearly 50 percent after blitzing at a 28.5 percent rate beforehand.
What will he do against Rodgers?
“His rating does go down a little bit [against blitzes] but, if you want to say it goes down a little bit, it's still extremely high,” Wash told Jaguars beat reporters with a laugh this week. “We want to make them work the whole field. We don't want to give up big plays over the top, really make them earn it all the way down the field.”
Actually, the blitz has been more effective than Wash is letting on. According to Pro Football Focus, Rodgers’ passer rating when blitzed is 96.3. That’s down 33.3 points compared to when not blitzed.
“You have to know how the game's going and you have to have a feel for it,” linebacker Joe Schobert told reporters. “If your pressures are getting home, any quarterback in the league is going to be thrown off his game. Obviously, he's great at recognizing defensive looks and recognizing pressures and coverages.
“You've got to do your best to be able to disguise that. He will hold the ball and try to scramble and extend plays because he can make all the throws and he wants to make all the throws. So, he'll hold the ball sometimes and give people opportunities to get sacks. You just have to be able to take advantage of it.”
Stud Linebackers
With Schobert and Myles Jack, the Jaguars have one of the top linebacker tandems in the NFL.
The Packers were interested in Schobert this past offseason but they couldn’t compete with Jacksonville’s five-year, $53.75 million offer. He leads the team with 62 tackles and has added one interception.
Schobert, the former University of Wisconsin star, grew up a Packers fan in Waukesha, Wis.
“Growing up as a Packer fan, I was spoiled with Brett Favre, transitioned to Aaron Rodgers for my whole childhood watching them play. He’s just done a lot of great things in Green Bay,” Schobert told Jaguars beat writers this week. “He’s been an MVP multiple times; probably has a case for more. As you get into the NFL and you understand how hard the game is and how fast and how good defenses are and defensive backs are, [it] makes you appreciate it a little bit more than he’s still doing it at such a high level when he was doing it for a long time since I was in third, fourth grade.
“But, at the same time, you see things on film, you realize he’s a person. He’s made mistakes. He doesn’t make as many mistakes as some other people, but he’s still a person, can still be affected by pressure and throw some balls that are up for grabs. So, we just have to be ready to take advantage of it because he will give an opportunity. He’s a human just like the rest of us.”
Just before the 2019 season, the Jaguars signed Jack to a five-year contract extension worth $57 million. While the Jags have gutted their roster, Jack is a centerpiece of the rebuild. He’s got 52 tackles, three passes defensed, one interception and one forced fumble. He’s got speed and instincts in coverage and a nose for the football. He ranks second among linebackers in PFF’s run-stop percentage, a metric that essentially measures impact tackles. (A first-and-10 tackle for a gain of 3 is a run stop; a gain of 4 is not a run stop.)
“He’s an elite linebacker. He’s so athletic,” LaFleur said. “You’re talking about a guy that was a two-way player in college. The film that you watch of him, he’s just so impressive. Matter of fact, I was watching a clip from him last year where he made an interception and you just don’t see linebackers with that athleticism and physicality that he has.”
Jack had a legendary true-freshman season at UCLA in 2013. A starting linebacker on defense, he was pressed into duty at running back and had one game of 120 rushing yards and another in which he set a school freshman record with four rushing touchdowns. For his efforts, he swept the Pac-12’s Freshman of the Year Awards on offense and defense.
He missed most of his junior season with a knee injury and entered the NFL Draft. Because of the injury, Jack fell to the second round. Jacksonville got him with the 36th overall pick.
“He’s the best athlete I ever seen,” Packers defensive tackle Kenny Clark, a former UCLA teammate of Jack, said this week. “He can cover anybody. In college, he lined up against Marqise Lee in the slot and covered him wherever he went. We did everything with Myles. A thing we all live by since college is ‘run and hit,’ and those are two things that Myles does well. Those are his trademarks is being able to run fast and get to the ball and be able to knock guys down.”
Stats That Aren’t for Losers
- Don’t bet on either team fumbling. According to Inside-Edge.com, Jaguars running backs have gone 449 consecutive carries without a fumble. The Packers’ only fumble by a running back or receiver this season belongs to Jones in Week 1. That fumble at the sideline at Minnesota bounced well out of bounds.
“That’s a big-time credit to the guys just being mindful and knowing and owning that responsibility,” LaFleur said. “Obviously, that’s something that affects the entire football team, all three phases, and our guys take pride in it and they’ve done a great job with it and we know that’s something you can never let get too far from your mind. As soon as you do, you slip up and next thing you know you’ve got a ball on the ground. I know our guys are going to continue to be mindful of that.”
- There are some metrics when examining the effectiveness of a defensive front. One underrated one is the number of offensive holding penalties drawn by the defense. Green Bay has drawn 10, the second-most in the NFL, according to Inside Edge. Jacksonville has drawn three, the second-fewest.
- Packers tight end Robert Tonyan is questionable and didn’t practice on Friday. He’d be a big loss. Among tight ends, Tonyan’s 88 percent catch rate and five receptions of 20-plus yards are among the best in the NFL.
Jacksonville’s defense has given up 488 receiving yards (fifth-most) and seven touchdowns (second-most) against tight ends.
- Green Bay has scored a league-high 40 points on its opening possession this season. In its eight games, it’s scored every time – four touchdowns and four field goals. The Packers and Patriots (2007) are the only teams since at least 2000 to score on their opening possession in each of the first eight games of the season, according to Sportradar via the Packers’ Dope Sheet preview.
Meanwhile, the Jaguars have been outscored 64-24 in the first quarter.
- Don Hutson’s 110.1 receiving yards per game in 1942 has been the franchise standard for almost 80 years. Adams is averaging a league-high 112.5 yards this year.
The Last Word …
Goes to Adams, on the impact of COVID-19 and team chemistry:
“I think it’s definitely been in the way a little bit. Obviously in the past, we’ve been able to have a lot of gatherings — Halloween stuff, Christmas stuff, going bowling, doing different events some of the players put on, so it’s gotten in the way a little bit. But we just try to strengthen our connection in the building and at practice through football as much as possible. The roster, it’s full of a lot of people I’d never met before going into camp, so we didn’t really have that connection where you learn certain guys. And then you dive straight into football right away, so that kind of got in the way a little bit. But it’s something we try to make sure we lock in on. We knew it was something that was going to be a little bit of an obstacle, something that could potentially set us back a little bit as far as our camaraderie all together, but I feel like we’ve done a really good job getting to know each other across the hall. It’s been a little bit of a challenge but we’ve been able to overcome it.”
More Countdown to Kickoff
Five Days: Five Keys to the Game
Four Days: Four Views from Inside Jaguars
Three Days: Three Reasons to Worry
Rodgers, Adams Recall ‘Majestic’ TD at Jacksonville in 2016
