Packers, Jets, Rodgers and Leverage

Who’s got the leverage to make the best deal for Aaron Rodgers? The Green Bay Packers or the New York Jets?

Author:
Bill Huber
Publish date:
Mar 17, 2023 1:37 PM EDT

In this story:

Green Bay Packers

GREEN BAY, Wis. – Leverage determines who wins in the NFL trenches. Leverage will determine whether the Green Bay Packers or New York Jets win the forthcoming Aaron Rodgers.

It’s certainly not going to be the Packers.

“The Packers don't have leverage in a potential Aaron Rodgers trade to Jets,” reads the headline of a Yahoo Sports story authored by Charles Robinson.

Hang on a minute. It’s the Packers who have the leverage.

“Packers Have All the Leverage in Aaron Rodgers Trade with Jets” is the headline atop a story penned by former NFL general manager Rick Spielman for The 33rd Team.

The fact of the matter is, as Packers general manager Brian Gutekunst and his Jets counterpart, Joe Douglas, consider trade compensation in the wake of Rodgers’ announcing his intention to play for New York in 2023, both sides believe they have the leverage advantage.

That’s why, 10 days after the Jets sent their top decision-makers to California to meet with Rodgers face-to-face, trade compensation has not been determined.

Yes, the Jets have leverage.

The Packers aren’t just ready to trade Rodgers and move Jordan Love into the starting lineup. They’re eager to make those changes. They want out of Rodgers’ contract, even with the additional pain it will inflict on the 2023 salary cap. As one executive said recently, the Jets would be doing the Packers a favor by taking on the contract.

The Packers want to get rid of Rodgers and there’s only one team willing to take him: the Jets. This isn’t the same scenario as Matthew Stafford in 2021 or Russell Wilson in 2022.

Yes, the Packers have leverage.

The Jets are a championship-caliber team without a championship-caliber quarterback. Especially with Derek Carr and Jimmy Garoppolo off the market, there’s only one quarterback worth a darned who’s available: Rodgers. Meanwhile, a desperate legion of fans – many of whom weren’t born when the Jets won their lone Super Bowl in 1969 – is hyperventilating. The pressure is on Douglas to make it happen.

“When Aaron Rodgers comes out and says, ‘I want to play for the Jets, now, all of a sudden, you’ve got your fanbase up in a frenzy,” Spielman said in The 33rd Team piece. “Now, if the deal doesn’t get done, it’s going to be the Jets’ fault and then that’s going to be a huge disappointment because they’ve got a very good football team.

“They may be an Aaron Rodgers away … and the Jets are right there. If they get this resolved and it is Aaron Rodgers, they become to me the favorite to win the AFC East next year. But, if it doesn’t come through, everybody’s going to start pointing the finger at Joe Douglas. ‘He wants to be there. Why didn’t you get this done?’”

That’s not all, though. The pendulum swings back toward the Jets having the leverage when presented with this scenario. What if Gutekunst’s heels are so dug in on the compensation being a 2023 first-round pick that the Jets say, “To hell with it. Enjoy the circus that’s coming to town.”

Just imagine the Packers being stuck with Rodgers and the four-time MVP showing up for Family Night, just like Brett Favre did in 2008. Faced with that possibility, with the countdown to training camp hitting single-digits, the Packers might be so desperate to unload Rodgers that the Jets would get him for a gift card to Sky Cavern Retreats, where Rodgers had his darkness retreat.

This has a chance to morph into the ugliest version of the blame game imaginable. Ugly for the Jets with no captain to steer their ship. Ugly for the Packers with the shadow of No. 12 hanging over everything. And all because the general managers were stubborn.

Fortunately for both sides, the leverage conversation is irrelevant without a looming deadline. The Jets are confident they’ll get their quarterback. The Packers are confident they’ll get rid of their quarterback.

Offseason workouts don’t begin until April 17. The NFL Draft starts 10 days later; there’s actually some upside to the Packers taking the pick in 2024. Organized team activities begin a few weeks after that; Rodgers, in case you’ve forgotten, has treated the offseason practices with disdain and already knows the offense.

For his part, Rodgers tried to throw his weight around Green Bay one last time.

“Now it’s about the reality of the situation, and I think there’s probably people who are really wanting to move on and I get it. I’m not upset about it,” Rodgers said on The Pat McAfee Show. “But the fact of the matter is you got an aging face of the franchise for the last 15 years that it’s time to do right by.”

Ultimately, Gutekunst and Douglas know all the pressure points. The trade is going to happen and both sides will be thrilled with the outcome.