Packers Season Preview: Three Reasons for Concern on Defense

The Green Bay Packers’ defense could be really good. But it wasn’t last year, and will have to prove it’s worthy of the hype this year.

GREEN BAY, Wis. – Green Bay Packers general manager Brian Gutekunst has constructed a potential defensive juggernaut.

Building on a defense that crushed the 49ers in the playoffs, Gutekunst signed veteran defensive lineman Jarran Reed in free agency and used first-round picks on linebacker Quay Walker and Devonte Wyatt. Along with some quality depth signings, this is a unit without weakness.

However, there are reasons to be concerned, starting with the play of last year’s defense. During the final seven games of the regular season, the Packers allowed at least 28 points five times. That was tied with Minnesota and Carolina for most in the NFL. The 49ers, who knocked the Packers out of the playoffs, and the Rams, who won the Super Bowl, had a league-low one such game.

When coordinator Joe Barry’s defense should have been peaking down the stretch, it was a miserable 28th in points allowed. It ranked 24th in total defense, 22nd on third down, 28th in yards allowed per carry and last in touchdown passes.

Of course, cornerback Jaire Alexander was rehabbing a shoulder injury and Walker was helping Georgia win a national championship. Still, most of the players on that defense will play a key role in this defense. Looking good on paper isn’t the same thing as looking good on the scoreboard. Greatness is earned. To earn it, the Packers must play better on third down, where they were bad last season, and in the red zone, where they were terrible.

Here are three reasons why the Packers’ defense could be overrated rather than powerful.

Starting Point: Run Defense

When the Packers needed to stop the run, Deebo Samuel picked up the clinching first down. (USA Today Sports Images)

Green Bay’s presumed defensive superiority revolves around the combination of a strong pass rush and excellent coverage. That’s a winning recipe most weeks.

But not every week.

The Packers’ defense will dominate a game filled with third-and-longs. To get there, they’ve got to stop the run. In terms of yards allowed per attempt during the Matt LaFleur era, the Packers ranked 30th in 2021, 21st in 2020 and 24th in 2019. There won’t be many third-and-longs in a game when you’re giving up 4.5 yards per carry.

Judging run defense is difficult during training camp because there’s no live tackling and it’s often impossible to gauge whether or not the runner was stopped. However, it appeared the Saints ran the ball well during two days of joint practices. The Vikings, with Dalvin Cook and Alexander Mattison in the backfield, will provide an early litmus test.

“It just comes down to who wants it more when you’re dealing with a player like that,” linebacker De’Vondre Campbell said of Cook. Will the Packers’ defensive front want to stop the run, or will they be too preoccupied with attacking the quarterback?

Danger Point: Depth

Jonathan Garvin is the top backup at outside linebacker. (USA Today Sports Images)

The Packers entered training camp with depth concerns at outside linebacker, cornerback and safety. Not much changed over the past six weeks.

At outside linebacker, the backups are Jonathan Garvin, Tipa Galeai and rookie Kingsley Enagbare. Last season, Garvin and Galeai combined for 2.5 sacks in 306 pass-rushing opportunities. The Packers need much more, whether they’re in the game to give Rashan Gary and Preston Smith a breather or if they’re forced into the lineup due to injury.

“I think Jonathan and Tipa have really taken nice steps,” general manager Brian Gutekunst said. “And obviously Preston and 52 [Gary], they’re real-deal players. When Rashan and Preston come off the field, those other guys, they’ve got to hold their own, whether that’s on first and second down more in the run game, or if we need to spell them as pass-rushers.”

At safety, projected backups Vernon Scott and Shawn Davis were released due to injuries. The backups are Dallin Leavitt and Rudy Ford, two players coveted more for special teams than defense, and rookie Tariq Carpenter.

At cornerback, at least Shemar Jean-Charles and Keisean Nixon had strong preseasons.

As Mike Tyson famously proclaimed, everyone’s got a plan until they’re punched in the face. It will be interesting to see how the Packers react when injuries inevitably punch them in the face.

Hype: Buying Into It

De'Vondre Campbell (USA Today Sports Images)

A lot has been written and said about Green Bay’s potential greatness on defense. That’s fine, so long as the players aren’t drunk on meaningless praise.

For what it’s worth, the players are saying all the right things. To talk the talk, they’ve got to walk the walk.

“There’s not really much hype,” Campbell said. “We’ve got to go out and do what we do. We know how good we can be, but it doesn’t matter about he said, she said. We’ve just got to go out and show it.”

The Packers are the only team in NFL history with three consecutive seasons of 13-plus wins. That regular-season success was the equivalent of empty calories. For the team to take the next step, the defense must deliver in January and February against real quarterbacks and not the Jimmy Garoppolos of the world.

“Man, we’ve got talent everywhere. Talent everywhere,” Gary said. “Green Bay as an organization, we’re doing great putting pieces on the defense, drafting guys. You see the potential. Like I said, go back to our standard and understanding what it means to be a Green Bay Packer. Past postseasons, we ended how we didn’t want it to end. We’ve got to turn it up on the defense. Defense wins championships. That’s our mind-set.”

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Three Reasons for Optimism on Defense

Here's why the Green Bay Packers' defense really could be great.

Bringing the Heat: Rashan Gary

On a defense filled with quality starters, Gary is one player who can change a game on any snap. His 9.5 sacks last season, while leading the team, weren’t especially impressive, but he finished second among edge defenders with 81 pressures, according to Pro Football Focus. After a breakout season, Gary seems poised to hit full-fledged stardom this season. He was a constant menace during training camp, including during the joint practices against the Saints. Every offense’s game plan will start with finding a way to keep him out of the backfield.

“Rashan … has really made himself a game-changer,” Rodgers said on Wednesday. “In the two-minute drive today, our protection was ‘slide to his side’ just because he’s such a game-wrecker. Preston is a fantastic player on one side, but we’ve got to slow down ‘52’ and offenses are going to have to have a plan for him.”

“I need to be my best version of myself,” he said. “That comes from my conditioning and my hands, to the way I play my run and pass. I understand my standard, so just trying to play to my standard and trying to get better than what I was last year. That’s the goal.”

Locking It Down: Jaire Alexander

Green Bay finished 10th in opponent passer rating last season. That was without Alexander for most of the season due to a shoulder injury, Stokes learning on the fly as a first-round pick and Douglas not getting on the field until mid-October.

With Alexander back in the starting lineup and capable of locking down any receiver in the NFL, opposing quarterbacks are going to have a hard time finding any breathing room.

“It’s the best secondary,” Alexander said last month.

Why?

“You’ve got me on there, first of all,” he said. “And then you’ve got ‘Sul – that’s primetime pick man; he gets all the picks. And you’ve got Stokes – young, up-and-coming savage.”

According to Sports Info Solutions, Alexander is the only cornerback in the NFL to allow a sub-50 percent completion rate each of the past three seasons. He returns to action with something to prove.

“I got goals I want to accomplish in this league, so I’m always going to have something to prove,” Alexander said. “If you want to be the greatest of all time, the best, you’ve always got to keep that chip, like (Charles) Woodson.”

No quarterback knows the skill of those cornerbacks better than Rodgers, who faced that group throughout training camp. He rarely threw the ball at Alexander and compared Douglas to Woodson a couple times.

Alexander is great, Douglas’ greatness last season doesn’t appear to be a fluke and Stokes has a chance to be great.

“You got one of the top corners in the game in Rasul, who’s having a hard time getting minutes in base. That tells you how good they are on the back end,” Rodgers said. “Obviously, Ja has been a lockdown guy all camp and 21 [Stokes] keeps getting better. If he learns how to catch the ball, he’s going to be a perennial Pro Bowler for us.”

Swagger: Mind-Set of Defensive Dominance

It was startling to see the defense talking trash at the offense throughout the summer. That just hasn’t happened on a Packers practice field.

Or in the locker room.

“They can’t mess with us,” Douglas said. “They can’t mess with us. They’re not ready for us.”

Generally speaking, Douglas was correct. On more than one occasion, rather than trying to escape the pocket to extend the play, Rodgers just chucked the ball to the turf. On one such instance, Gary jumped up and down in front of Rodgers. It was like in-his-prime Muhammad Ali staring at some chump he had toyed with before beating him into submission.

“At the end of the day, this is practice,” Gary said when asked about that play. “We’ve got a big opportunity regular season first game against the Vikings. We’re just trying to make sure we’re taking the right steps by getting better at all phases day by day. We’re on each other about the small things.”

While Gary downplayed that moment, it showed a rare and growing swagger. For most of the last decade, the defense has taken the back seat to Rodgers and Co. With offensive-minded head coaches and an MVP quarterback, past teams had been built to score a lot of points on offense and force turnovers on defense. While Rodgers would take exception at the statement, these Packers are built on their defense.

“I know how good we can be but none of that means anything if we don’t go out and show it,” Campbell said. “We’ve just got to go and handle business, one game at a time.”

Predicting Every Game on Packers’ Schedule

The Green Bay Packers have won 13 games an NFL-record three consecutive seasons. Can they do it again? Here are game-by-game predictions by Bill Huber of Packer Central and Conor Orr of Sports Illustrated.

Week 1 at Minnesota

Bill Huber: Win. Conor Orr: Lose.

The Vikings – with a new coach and new schemes – didn’t play their starters in the preseason, either. So, whatever happens on Sunday, you can flush that story line down the toilet. If David Bakhtiari and Elgton Jenkins play, the Packers will win. If they don’t, they’ll lose.

Week 2 vs. Chicago

Bill Huber: Win. Conor Orr: Win.

All-time, the Bears have 783 wins and the Packers have 782. By the end of the night, the Packers could have the most wins in NFL history.

Week 3 at Tampa Bay

Bill Huber: Lose. Conor Orr: Lose.

The Buccaneers are loaded – Julio Jones is their fourth receiver – and the Packers might still be finding their way on offense. Could this set the stage for Packers at Bucs in the NFC title game?

Week 4 vs. New England

Bill Huber: Win. Conor Orr: Win.

Bill Belichick might be the greatest coach in NFL history but this is not the finest roster he’s helped assemble. He’s a defensive genius, though, so LaFleur vs. Belichick will be quite the subplot.

Week 5 vs. N.Y. Giants (London)

Bill Huber: Win. Conor Orr: Win.

Unless quarterback Daniel Jones’ career takes off in Year 4, this will be one of the worst teams in the NFL. A key to Green Bay’s season will be the play of Bakhtiari and Jenkins following their ACLs. A key to the Giants’ season will be the play of running back Saquon Barkley following a so-so return from his ACL.

Week 6 vs. New York Jets

Bill Huber: Win. Conor Orr: Win.

Unless quarterback Zach Wilson takes a huge Year 2 jump, this will be one of the worst teams in the NFL. Having four of the top 36 picks of the draft should help their perpetual rebuild.

Week 7 at Washington

Bill Huber: Win. Conor Orr: Win.

The Commanders have quality skill-position talent and a superb defensive front, but is Carson Wentz good enough at quarterback to get them to the playoffs?

Week 8 at Buffalo

Bill Huber: Lose. Conor Orr: Win.

The Bills are absolutely loaded, which is why they’re the preseason Super Bowl favorites at SI Sportsbook. Josh Allen, Stefon Diggs and Gabriel Davis vs. Green Bay’s secondary will be must-see TV.

Week 9 at Detroit

Bill Huber: Lose. Conor Orr: Win.

Dan Campbell has the Lions trending the right way. Jared Goff isn’t a great quarterback but Amon-Ra St. Brown, D.J. Chark and (if healthy) Jameson Williams could be a premier receiver trio.

Week 10 vs. Dallas

Bill Huber: Win. Conor Orr: Lose.

Mike McCarthy will make his triumphant return to Green Bay. If left tackle Tyron Smith is still out with his hamstring injury, it’s hard to see how the Cowboys will protect against Rashan Gary and Preston Smith.

Week 11 vs. Tennessee

Bill Huber: Win. Conor Orr: Win.

On Thursday night, perhaps rookie receivers Christian Watson of the Packers and Treylon Burks of the Titans will take center stage. Titans quarterback Ryan Tannehill threw 55 touchdowns vs. 13 interceptions in 2019 and 2020 but 21 touchdowns vs. 14 interceptions in 2021.

Week 12 at Philadelphia

Bill Huber: Win. Conor Orr: Win.

If quarterback Jalen Hurts progresses after a promising first year as the starter, the Eagles are going to be really good. I would have picked them here but the Packers will get a few extra days of rest. Philly’s powerful offensive line will test a Green Bay front’s desire to stop the run.

Week 13 at Chicago

Bill Huber: Win. Conor Orr: Win.

Aaron Rodgers owns Chicago, in case you’ve forgotten. Green Bay’s cornerbacks against Chicago receivers Darnell Mooney, Equanimeous St. Brown and Byron Pringle seems like the ultimate mismatch.

Week 14: Bye

Week 15 vs. L.A. Rams

Bill Huber: Win. Conor Orr: Lose.

The Packers will be coming off their bye but the Rams will have a few extra days of rest, too, following a Thursday game. The key here – and going forward – will be whether Green Bay’s rookie receivers are ready to make some plays in a big game.

Week 16 at Miami

Bill Huber: Lose. Conor Orr: Win.

The Packers will leave the deep-freeze of Green Bay to play in hot-and-humid Miami on Christmas. The Dolphins have a loaded pass-catching corps with Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, Cedrick Wilson and tight end Mike Gesicki.

Week 17 vs. Minnesota

Bill Huber: Win. Conor Orr: Win.

The schedule-makers didn’t do the Packers any favors with a Christmas Day game in Miami. They made up for it by sending the Vikings and Lions to Green Bay in January.

Week 18 vs. Detroit

Bill Huber: Win. Conor Orr: Win.

Regardless of their record before this game, the Packers will play to win this game so they can carry momentum into the playoffs.

Final Records

We came up with matching 13-4 records even while having only one common loss (at Tampa Bay in Week 3).