Packers vs. 49ers: Three Reasons for Optimism, Playoffs Edition

Playing at home has meant nothing throughout the NFL this season. Green Bay is an exception to that statement.

Author:
Bill Huber
Updated:
Jan 22, 2022 8:24 AM EST
Original:
Jan 22, 2022

GREEN BAY, Wis. – The Green Bay Packers vs. San Francisco 49ers.

It’s a series steeped in tradition, big games and excellence. On Saturday night, these heavyweights will slug it out one more time. The winner will advance to the NFC Championship Game. The loser will endure a long offseason.

The Packers have won the last two games, including in Week 3 of this season. The 49ers have won the last three playoff games, including the 2019 title game.

Here are three reasons why the Packers will advance to a third consecutive conference title clash.

1. Red-Hot Rodgers

Aaron Rodgers is feeling good and playing great. That’s a tough combination to beat.

Even while dealing with a broken pinky toe that greatly limited his practice time down the stretch, Rodgers enters the postseason on a remarkable roll. He’s put together a streak of seven consecutive games with two-plus touchdowns and zero interceptions – the second-longest streak in NFL history. He led the NFL in passer rating, touchdown percentage and interception percentage for a second consecutive season. In the Super Bowl era, that’s a feat that’s been accomplished only three other times.

The Rodgers that was clobbered by the 49ers twice in 2019, including in the NFC Championship Game, isn’t the same Rodgers as they’ll have to contend with on Saturday. In 2019, Rodgers was 12th in rating (95.4), 17th in yards per attempt (7.03) and 21st in completion percentage (62.0). Statistically, Jimmy Garoppolo was the better quarterback. This year, Rodgers was first in rating (111.9), sixth in yards per attempt (7.75) and third in completion percentage (68.9). Statistically, there’s no comparison between the quarterbacks.

In Week 3, Rodgers led the Packers’ Houdini-style escape from San Francisco with two completions to Davante Adams in the final half-minute.

“Incredible throws by him, and you see why he’s one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL,” 49ers defensive coordinator DeMeco Ryans said this week. “But you can see where we can be better in those situations, as well. I think we are better. Week 3 seems like so long ago, but I’m happy for Week 3. I’m very happy for Week 3. I think it was definitely a pivotal moment in our season.”

Rodgers is on top of his game and healthy again. He practiced throughout the bye and in all three practices this week. He’s on one of those rolls that, if it lasts the next two games, will carry the Packers to the Super Bowl.

“I think what you want to do is have that flow state be a continual thing,” Rodgers said. “The flow state is kind of the words we’ve used to talk about being in ‘the zone,’ whatever that means. It’s really when you’re playing your best and the game seems to slow down a little bit. It’s a full-time job, I think, to stay in and around that flow state. There’s certain things you can do to try and tap into that. For me personally, it involves habits that I’ve formed over the years revolving around breathing and mind-set and visualization and manifestation in things that are really important to me”

If given time against the Niners’ ferocious pass rush, Rodgers could thrive. During his season-ending hot streak, his passer rating was a league-best 124.4 with 20 touchdowns vs. zero interceptions. During the 49ers’ season-ending hot streak, they still finished 20th in opponent passer rating.

2. Cold Sweet Home

The Packers were the only team to go undefeated at home, a perfect 8-0.

Rodgers was superb at home, throwing 20 touchdowns vs. one interception with a 113.8 passer rating. Green Bay’s defense, meanwhile, allowed a 74.7 passer rating in those games. That’s a mark of plus-39.1, second only to Buffalo.

Green Bay gave up 16.8 points per game at home, also second only to Buffalo. It was plus-1.8 in turnovers per game; Tampa Bay (plus-1.2) was the only other team at better than plus-0.6. The advantage even shows up on special teams, with Mason Crosby making 80.0 percent of his field goals at home compared to 68.2 percent on the road.

It's true, a stadium has never won a game. Neither has cold weather. The Packers know that better than anyone, having gone just 7-6 in their last 13 Lambeau Field home games. This season, more teams had losing records at home (16) than (14). So, homefield really doesn’t mean a thing. That being said, the home team is 14-2 in the divisional round the past four years, with Green Bay owning two of those wins.

“I’m excited about our opportunity, excited about the leadership we have on the football team, excited about the guys coming back and excited to have a full crowd this year as opposed to last year,” Rodgers said. “Hoping for a loud crowd that has a nice enjoyable afternoon. Maybe doesn’t go too hard, leave some room for some enjoyment from like 7-10:30 p.m. on Saturday night. It’s an exciting opportunity to be back at Lambeau for a playoff game in prime time.”

3. They’re Just Too Good

The Packers aren’t a paper tiger. The 2019 team that went 13-3 struggled to score points most weeks. Not this team. This team scores in bunches, takes away the football, doesn’t give away the football and doesn’t give away yards with foolish penalties.

San Francisco has two enormous strengths. One is running the football. The Packers were demolished by Cleveland’s Nick Chubb this season but otherwise took care of business against most running backs. In six games against teams that qualified for the playoffs, the Packers’ worst game was 4.3 yards per carry at Cincinnati. The other games: 3.2 at San Francisco, 3.9 vs. Pittsbugh, 3.7 at Arizona, 3.1 at Kansas City and 3.4 against the Rams. In other words, when the defense has had to be locked in, it’s been locked in.

The second of the 49ers’ strengths is rushing the passer. But the Packers, whether it’s Matt LaFleur’s coaching or Rodgers’ play style, have been so good this year at handling that segment of the game. Rodgers is playing faster than ever, and that should limit the Niners’ rush and send the Packers into next weekend’s championship game.