Report: Packers, Jets Getting Closer to Rodgers Trade

According to Yahoo Sports, the Green Bay Packers would get a second-round pick in 2023 and more in a trade of Aaron Rodgers.

Author:
Bill Huber
Publish date:
Mar 28, 2023 10:19 AM EDT

In this story:

Green Bay Packers

GREEN BAY, Wis. – All along, an NFL executive has said the Green Bay Packers should get a first-round draft pick – or enough picks that it adds up to a first-round draft pick – in a trade of Aaron Rodgers to the New York Jets.

The “adds up” could be the ultimate resolution that sends the four-time NFL MVP to The Big Apple to resume his chase for a second Super Bowl ring.

According to Yahoo Sports’ Charles Robinson, the Packers and Jets are getting “closer” to a deal that would trade Rodgers for one of the Jets’ second-round picks in this year’s draft and another in next year’s draft.

The foundation of that trade jibes with what Packers general manager Brian Gutekunst said at the NFL owners meetings on Monday in Phoenix.

When asked about his reported desire to get back a first-round pick for Rodgers, he said, “I think that’s not a necessity, but at the same time, the value of the player – he’s a premier player, so getting premier picks back for (premier) players is important.”

With the “premier picks” part of the equation perhaps worked out, the next step is creating protection for each team.

According to Robinson, the 2024 second-round pick could move up to a first-round pick if Rodgers helps the Jets hit “achievable” escalators such as a home divisional playoff game or a trip to the AFC Championship Game.

The Jets want protection, too, should Rodgers be a one-year rental. It would be a “kickback,” as our executive put it three weeks ago, in which the Jets would receive a pick back from the Packers should Rodgers not return to the Jets in 2024. According to Robinson, that pick would be sent to the Jets for the 2025 draft.

“Personally, I wouldn’t feel comfortable trading for him if I didn’t have some type of protection,” another executive said in early February.

It is that point that appears to be a sticking point, Robinson reported.

The second-round picks probably have been the logical compensation all along. The Jets are going all-in on Rodgers, even with the knowledge it could be a one-year Hail Mary. As such, they need that 13th pick in the draft to add to their roster, especially with a hole at left tackle.

Even trading both of this year’s second-round picks would work against the Jets’ win-now plan.

The Packers, on the other hand, have time on their side. They are building with new starting quarterback Jordan Love.

New York owns two second-round picks, back-to-back selections at No. 42 (from the Browns for receiver Elijah Moore) and their own pick at No. 43.

Setting aside Robinson’s report of “achievable” escalators for sake of example, here’s the “adds up” math.

If the Jets send No. 43 overall in this year’s draft and win the Super Bowl and wind up with the 64th pick in the 2024 draft, those selections would have a combined point value of 218 points on the Rich Hill trade value chart. That is the rough equivalent of the 27th pick of the first round.

No. 43 in this year’s draft and No. 51 in 2024 (the best pick possible for a one-and-done playoff team) is the equivalent of the 22nd pick. If the Jets fall on their face and wind up with the 43rd pick of the second round again, those picks would be the equivalent of the 19th pick.

Now, let’s say the trade is made with the escalator that Robinson reported. If the Jets win the Super Bowl, they’d own the 32nd pick of the 2024 draft. Combined with No. 43 in the 2023 draft, that’s 322 points – pretty much in between the 14th and 15th picks.

Because of the infusion of NIL money into college sports, the 2024 draft class is expected to be stronger than the 2023 class, meaning the Packers might be picking from a better pool of players.