Start of NFL Free Agency Paints Bleak Outlook for Packers

The Chicago Bears have added five starters. The Detroit Lions added one starter and have two first-round picks. The Green Bay Packers? They’re stuck.

Author:
Bill Huber
Publish date:
Mar 14, 2023 12:59 PM EDT

In this story:

Green Bay Packers

GREEN BAY, Wis. – All the great empires, from the Roman to the British, eventually fall. The Green Bay Packers, while not an empire and certainly not a dynasty, have fallen, too.

After three consecutive runaway victories in the NFC North, the Packers crashed into third place in the division in 2022. Their offense was mediocre. Their defense was mediocre. Their special teams was mediocre. So was their 8-9 record.

So, like all falling empires, they’re in retreat. For the Packers, a team that had entered season after season as a legitimate Super Bowl challenger, the first 24 hours of NFL free agency has only deepened the divide between contender and pretender.

The downtrodden Chicago Bears, coming off a last-place finish of 3-14 but with the salary-cap space to match some nations’ gross domestic products, went on a shopping spree that netted pass-rushing big guy DeMarcus Walker, linebackers Tremaine Edmunds and T.J. Edwards, and guard Nate Davis.

Even while front-loading those contracts to take full advantage of the Justin Fields contract window, the Bears have more cap space than any team in the league, according to OverTheCap.com.

Along with adding standout receiver D.J. Moore in the blockbuster trade that shipped the No. 1 overall pick to Carolina, the Bears have added five instant starters before even making a draft pick. Led by the No. 9 pick obtained from the Panthers, the Bears have four of the first 64 selections this year and an additional first-round pick in 2024.

The surging Detroit Lions addressed one of their biggest needs by signing cornerback Cam Sutton away from Pittsburgh on Monday and adding former 49ers cornerback Emmanuel Moseley on Tuesday. Plus, led by the No. 6 overall pick from the Rams for the 2021 trade of Matthew Stafford and their own selection at No. 18, they’ve got four of the first 55 selections.

It’s been a mixed bag for the Minnesota Vikings, who are perhaps due to take a large step back after posting 11 one-score victories in 2022. They released linebacker Eric Kendricks and receiver Adam Thielen, lost cornerback Patrick Peterson and defensive tackle Dalvin Tomlinson in free agency, reportedly are shopping running back Dalvin Cook and have a problem on their hands with Za’Darius Smith.

However, they signed proven pass rusher Marcus Davenport and run-blocking tight end Josh Oliver. Through one day, the Vikings are net losers and have significant salary-cap issues to tackle, but at least they’ve added a couple players. And they’ve got Justin Jefferson at receiver and upgraded their defensive coordinator with Brian Flores.

The Packers? They re-signed kick returner/cornerback Keisean Nixon. He was arguably their most important free agent, so keeping him was a big deal.

However, as they wait for Aaron Rodgers to get done recruiting all the team’s free agents to the Jets, they seem content to sit out the big waves of free agency before dipping into the bargain bin. That strategy netted the likes of Nixon, Rudy Ford, Jarran Reed and Dallin Leavitt last offseason.

Added together, it’s a harsh reality.

That said, perhaps the best reason to trade Rodgers is the ability to hit the reset button.

General manager Brian Gutekunst went about as all-in as possible to maximize the Rodgers window. He restructured every contract imaginable – some of them multiple times – to keep the gang together and to add veteran talent. It’s fair to criticize the Rodgers contract but, in totality, he took the right approach considering where Rodgers was in his career. It didn’t work.

So, with the team trending the wrong way, Gutekunst (presumably) is going to trade Rodgers for a draft pick or picks, take his salary-cap medicine ($40.3 million of dead money on the 2023 cap) and reboot with Jordan Love at quarterback (and without Rodgers’ $40.7 million cap number in 2024).

Unless Love is an instant sensation – not even Rodgers was that when he took over in 2008 – it’s going to be tough sledding. He’ll face the immense pressure of replacing a legend while leading a team that’s in the process of either rebuilding or reloading, depending on your vantage point.

So long as Love doesn’t fall on his face, the Packers won’t be terrible. The offensive line will be good, and they’ll be blocking for Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon. But the receivers will be young, the tight ends could be young, there probably will be a new kicker and who knows about Joe Barry’s ability to maximize the talent on defense.

The next 13 1/2 months, from now through the 2024 NFL Draft, will be absolutely vital in building a bright and durable future. The Lions already are on the rise. The Bears, loaded with so many assets, could be hot on their heels. Gutekunst is going to have to be right about Love – and right about just about all the other upcoming decisions – in order for the Packers to not fall hopelessly behind two teams they used to dominate.