The Case for Tom Brady to Win NFL MVP
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Just like the 2020 NFC Championship Game – and possibly the 2021 NFC Championship Game, as the Green Bay Packers and Tampa Bay Buccaneers hold the top seeds the NFC playoffs – it is coming down to two players to win NFL MVP.
It’s Green Bay’s Aaron Rodgers, the reigning NFL MVP, vs. Tampa Bay’s Tom Brady, the best quarterback in NFL history, for the award of 2021 NFL MVP.
While many media members are pushing for the Green Bay passer to grab the award in back-to-back seasons, it is important to note advanced analytics and the highly respected Pro Football Focus make it clear that Brady should earn his fourth regular-season MVP, and ninth overall MVP award when including his five Super Bowl MVPs.
Let’s take a step back and put the “Value” of Most Valuable Player under a magnifying glass, because this is literally the reason this year’s award is even a debate.
Rodgers’ supporters are making the case for him due to perceived higher efficacy as a passer over Brady. In their eyes, that makes him the more valuable player, as opposed to Brady, who had a higher volume of attempts, which allowed him to put up much bigger numbers in terms of touchdowns, yards and completions.
Let’s start off with the basic stats comparison:
Brady – Stat – Rodgers
43 – Passing TDs – 37
12 – Interceptions – 4
5,316 – Yards – 4,115
485 – Completions – 366
67.5 – Completion Percentage – 68.8
68.5 – ESPN's QBR – 68.8
13-4 – Record – 13-4
Brady had one of the most prolific seasons in NFL history, totaling 5,316 passing yards and 43 touchdowns while leading the Bucs to the No. 1 passing offense in the league. He has the edge is yards by more than 1,200. He has edges in touchdowns and completions, too. In fact, his 485 completions are the most ever. The completion percentage difference is minuscule; the yards differential is not.
The biggest case Rodgers has is the fewer interceptions, which is fair, but at least four of Brady’s INTs came off drops and another came on a Hail Mary attempt before halftime.
Let’s dive into the more advanced stats:
*Via @FullPressNFL on Twitter
Volume - While both teams finished with the same record, Brady had a worse defense and worse running game than Rodgers, which meant the Bucs had to rely on him to do more to stay in and win games.
Brady passed 188 more times than Rodgers in 2021. That is to his credit. While some people point to those attempts as a reason for Brady having better numbers, which they believe should discredit his effort on the season, the opposite is true. Brady was asked to do more because that was the only way the Bucs could score. It was a matter of asking Brady to throw about 42 times per game or they will lose. Asking a player to do more and him doing it makes him more valuable, not less. Rodgers had a better defense and better running game and did not need to throw as much. The Packers could win with him doing less. He was more efficient, but he was also not as needed.
Tom Brady is a five-time Super Bowl MVP. (Jonathan Dyer/Imagn)
There have only been three seasons in which a QB had more than 690 attempts:
1994 – Drew Bledsoe – 691 attempts, 4,555 yards, 25 TDs, 27 INTs.
2012 – Matthew Stafford, 727 attempts, 4,967 yards, 20 TDs, 20 INTs.
2021 – Tom Brady, 719 attempts, 5,316 yards, 43 TDs, 12 INTs.
Brady has lapped the field.
Now, compare the seasons of Rodgers and Minnesota’s Kirk Cousins.
Cousins – Stat – Rodgers
33 – Passing TDs – 37
7 – Interceptions – 4
4,221 – Yards – 4,115
372 – Completions – 366
561 – Attempts – 531
66.3 – Completion Percentage – 68.8
If Cousins isn’t far off, should he also get MVP consideration? No one in his right mind thinks that, and yet Rodgers is a slam-dunk MVP selection for so many. How come?
Injuries – Both teams dealt with top players missing time in 2021. I will concede the Packers probably dealt with more injuries but let’s not pretend the Bucs didn’t deal with a lot of it on their side, as well.
The Packers suffered injuries to two of their best offensive linemen in David Bakhtiari and Elgton Jenkins. The Bucs are missing two of their top receivers in Chris Godwin and Antonio Brown. [Brown missed eight games due to injury before … you know.] The Packers have had the NFL’s consensus No. 1 receiver, Davante Adams, for all but one game to help Rodgers get his numbers.
Both teams’ top tight ends missed time, as well. Green Bay’s Robert Tonyan tore his ACL midseason so he won’t be back, but the Bucs lost All-Pro Rob Gronkowski for five games (four completely and another game in which he only played six snaps).
The Packers lost their starting star cornerback, Jaire Alexander, for a large part of the season but the Bucs lost all three of their starting cornerbacks for much of the year. Jamel Dean (60.0 percent of the defensive snaps), Carlton Davis (55.9 percent) and Sean Murphy-Bunting (40.4 percent) combined to miss 17 games. Even the replacements they brought in, such as late-career Richard Sherman, who is on season-ending injured reserve, went down.
Za'Darius Smith, the Packers’ outstanding pass-rushing outside linebacker, hasn’t played since Week 1, although he’s perhaps back for the playoff run. The Packers managed without him due to Rashan Gary and Preston Smith. The Bucs lost outside linebacker Jason Pierre-Paul and inside linebacker and team captain Lavonte David for five games apiece.
Leonard Fournette, who’s their best pass blocking back and only receiving threat out of the backfield, also missed three games.
Saints - The Saints have been the thorn in the side of both Rodgers and Brady this season. They combined to go 0-3 against the Saints this season. Considering they lost only four games each, that’s saying something.
It would appear a late-season loss to the Saints at home is the reason Brady might not win the MVP. He passed for only 214 yards and threw one interception in a 9-0 loss in prime time.
Rodgers had a much worse game with 133 passing yards, zero touchdowns and two interceptions in a 38-3 blowout.
Because Rodgers played the Saints in Week 1 and Brady played them in Week 15, the media is focusing on Brady’s bad game and pretending the Packers’ season started in Week 2.
When the game was played shouldn’t be a knock on Brady. Plus, Green Bay was relatively healthy for that game while the Bucs played without Brown and lost Evans and Godwin to injuries in the second quarter.
Overall, Brady has simply been better than Rodgers. Not voting him MVP would be going against history considering the season he just had. And, yes, I haven’t mentioned it, but he also happens to be 44 years old. Should it matter? No, just like Rodgers missing a game due to a personal decision shouldn’t. But playing less games makes you less valuable to your team, which does hurt your MVP chances.
Tom Brady, your rightful 2021 MVP.
