Will Gutekunst Make Bold Move at Trade Deadline?
GREEN BAY, Wis. – Every NFL trade deadline is a potentially big moment, but this one feels especially monumental for the Green Bay Packers.
With a 5-2 record this season and significant salary-cap issues headed into next season, this might be the Packers’ last chance to win a Super Bowl with Aaron Rodgers as the quarterback.
Will general manager Brian Gutekunst move heaven and earth to make it happen? Or, having drafted Rodgers’ successor in April, is he all-in on the future and simply hoping all the stars come into alignment for this year’s team?
What happens or doesn’t happen before the 3 p.m. Tuesday deadline will provide a strong indication of his thinking.
The Packers, to be sure, are a flawed team. That was made abundantly clear when they were demolished over the course of the final 45 minutes at Tampa Bay and then beaten by Dalvin Cook on Sunday.
Green Bay’s offense, despite having an elite trio with Rodgers, running back Aaron Jones and receiver Davante Adams, simply doesn’t have the horses to keep up with the other teams in the NFC.
Seattle, which has the best record in the NFC, has three premier players surrounding Russell Wilson with receivers Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf and running back Chris Carson. Tampa Bay, which has the second-best record in the NFC, is taking a flier on receiver Antonio Brown to join quarterback Tom Brady, receivers Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, and running back Ronald Jones. If San Francisco can ever get healthy after winning the NFC last year, tight end George Kittle, receivers Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk, and running back Raheem Mostert form a formidable quartet.
Green Bay’s defense, obviously, remains feeble against top running backs. While the Packers are 22nd in yards allowed per carry, the Buccaneers are first, the Saints are third, the Seahawks are fifth (and added Carlos Dunlap in a trade), the Rams are sixth and the 49ers are ninth.
With $6.83 million of available cap space, according to the NFLPA, Gutekunst doesn’t have a lot of flexibility. Maybe he can add a receiver to the offense. Maybe he can add a run-stopper to the defense. Maybe he can’t do either; he almost certainly can’t do both.
Bolstered by the projected fourth-round compensatory picks for losing Blake Martinez and Bryan Bulaga in free agency, Gutekunst has some extra ammunition to make a deal. Based on supply and demand, there might be more and better options at receiver.
And that might make the most sense, too.
Give Rodgers a skill group that includes Adams, Jones, receiver Allen Lazard, tight end Robert Tonyan and, say, Houston Texans receiver Will Fuller, a potent offense would grow even stronger. If the Packers can consistently score 30-plus points even against the NFL’s better defenses, it might change the entire equation.
Green Bay’s defense is built to stop the pass. The team has spent a king’s ransom in terms of cash and capital on outside linebackers Za’Darius Smith, Preston Smith and Rashan Gary and defensive backs Jaire Alexander, Kevin King and Darnell Savage. Aside from extending defensive tackle Kenny Clark, it’s essentially thumbed its nose at providing the sturdy middle necessary to stop the run.
A potent offense, in theory, would take the pressure off the weakness of Green Bay’s defense and force opponents to attack the strength.
In other words, for the Packers, the best defense would be an exceptional offense.
Does Gutekunst have the ability to make it happen? Does he even have the desire?
There are three harsh realities.
First, the Packers don’t have much cap space for 2020 to accommodate another contract. Every minor transaction, such as elevating a player from the practice squad to play on gamedays, takes a chunk out of that remaining $6.83 million.
Second, the Packers have merely $2.42 million of cap space for 2021, based on OverTheCap.com’s projections, with the COVID-related income reductions taking a significant bite out of the league-wide cap.
Third, Jones, left tackle David Bakhtiari, center Corey Linsley and King lead an impressive group of free agents. Some tough decisions will have to be made this coming offseason to assemble a roster that fits under the cap. That means there’s a good chance next year’s roster won’t be as good as this year’s roster and the Lombardi Trophy will seem an even more distant goal.
Realizing this might be the last chance to win a second Super Bowl with Rodgers, will Gutekunst go for it? Will he throw caution to the wind and worry about 2021 when 2021 arrives, like the New Orleans Saints have done?
Or will he maintain the Packers’ long-standing way of doing business, which is clinging to every available salary-cap dollar to maintain the current core and keeping draft picks to restock the roster?
The case to make a bold move is an obvious one. Rodgers is a generational talent who remains on top of his game. There’s not the slightest clue that Jordan Love will ever be to Rodgers what Rodgers was to Favre. Then again, there’s not the slightest reason to believe the general manager who drafted the quarterback of the future in April will make a big move for the sake of the present.
