Let the Drama Unfold: The Patriots' Offseason Ramps Up This Week at the NFL Combine
The drama-filled offseason for the New England Patriots will begin to unfold this week at the NFL Combine in Indianapolis, IN. But let's first review what has gotten us to this point.
When the Patriots' coaching staff went through the head-coaching gauntlet at the end of January, they came out relatively intact. They were able to retain offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels, who was one of the hottest names in the head-coaching pool, specifically for the Cleveland Browns, who were a team labeled as his "dream job" for many years. Instead, Cleveland didn't like the severe changes McDaniels wanted to make in regards to how they ran football operations, so they went a different direction at head coach. This all came after Matt Rhule's hiring in Carolina had the New York Giants hiring Patriots special teams coordinator and wide receivers coach Joe Judge to be their next head coach, taking New England's defensive line coach Bret Bielema with him to the Big Apple.
In terms of the front-office, New England was able to sign director of player personnel Nick Caserio to a multi-year contract extension, which not only locked up a key member of their personnel decision-making, but also a consultant on game day from the booth. Caserio's extension meant at least one prominent figure in the Patriots' front-office would remain through the 2020 offseason, as director of college scouting Monti Ossenfort's contract is set to expire in May, so he could pursue another job elsewhere in the league if he chooses to do so.
The potential damage faced this offseason was not reserved to just those five men, however. One of the biggest blows the team already suffered didn't include any of them.
Offensive line coach Dante Scarnecchia announced his retirement for the second, and what seems to be the final time in this career, which puts an end to one of the greatest runs by an assistant coach in NFL history. Replacing him simply isn't an option, so the Patriots have to know going forward that finding a diamond in the rough isn't as likely on their offensive line now that one of the greatest offensive line evaluators to ever set foot in the NFL isn't with them. That makes drafting and acquiring strong talent on the o-line more impactful moving forward.
Even with Coach Scarnnechia as the offensive line coach last season, that unit saw a dip in production, which in part had to do with overall play and some injuries. That, along with an inefficient passing game, had the Patriots' season coming to an unexpected halt in the Wild-Card round of the playoffs at the hands of the Titans. New England's historic defense wasn't elite enough to push them past their offensive woes, which is why the team is now looking to fill several holes on their offense, while plugging in some younger talent on the defensive side of the ball.
Now, with 42-year-old quarterback Tom Brady entering free agency for the first time in his career, along with several other key free agents like Joe Thuney, Kyle Van Noy, and Devin McCourty, the Patriots have to figure out how to improve this offseason under the limited salary cap they've left themselves with in 2020.
That's what this year's draft could drastically shift what happens to New England's beloved franchise moving forward.
Thanks in part to the NFL's compensatory formula, the Patriots are projected to have a total of 12 draft picks in the 2020 Draft. Unfortunately, only one of those picks falls on the first two days of the draft, specifically on Day 1 at no. 23 overall. Because the team will try to retain Brady under their projected $29 million cap space (according to BSJ's Miguel Benzan) and acquire some pass-catchers in the process, New England needs to hit on several draft picks this season if they want to compete for a championship next season. That's why trading into the second round would be wise and something that's very possible.
The Patriots' positional needs go as followed: tight end, offensive lineman, wide receiver, edge rusher, safety, quarterback. Based on how free agency plays out will ultimately determine where those positions stand on the list of priorities heading into the draft. But based on where they stand right now, New England's needs aren't projected to aline with who they draft off-the-bat.
This year's tight end class is filled with projects, so drafting one in the first round doesn't make sense. That's why selecting an offensive or defensive lineman seems like the go-to option at no. 23. There's a strong chance a top-graded edge rusher could fall to them in the latter half of the first round. Someone like Iowa's A.J. Epenesa falls into that category, who is too good to pass up with the 23rd overall pick based on his talent and the need for a pass-rusher opposite of Chase Winovich. Safety is also an option for the Patriots in the first round, especially if LSU's Grant Delpit or Alabama's Xavier McKinney are still available.
Trading into the second round would then allow New England to snag a pass-catcher, either at receiver or tight end. The Patriots could get a plug-and-play receiver at that point in the draft thanks to a historically deep wideout class. However, barring how they fare in free agency, drafting a tight end could absolutely happen in Round 2 as well. Trading several mid-to-late round picks should help New England make a selection between picks 33-to-64.
PatriotMaven's own Max McAuliffe laid out this past weekend five players to watch at the NFL Combine this week, as these players could be on the Patriots' radar: Henry Ruggs III, Quartney Davis, Jalen Elliott, Epenesa, and Cole Kmet. If Ruggs and Kmet impress at the combine, they could work their way up the draft board and potentially out of reach of the Patriots based on where New England should draft those positions. Same with Epenesa. But if they fall short of sticking out amongst the combine prospects, then becoming a Patriot in April increases as a possibility.
Bill Belichick and Caserio are expected to be in attendance for the combine. They are the decision makers when it comes to acquiring players, with Belichick obviously having the final say in personnel matters. His draft selections over the past two years have left much to be desired; he selected Sony Michel and Duke Dawson on Day 1 and Day 2, respectively, in the 2018 Draft. Dawson is no longer on the team, and there are many questions as to how the Georgia product can produce behind a slightly-above average offensive line, which should not be a conversation a former first-round running back should be involved in. Tack on some late-round additions that are no longer on the team, such as Braxton Berrios, Danny Etling, and Christian Sam, and the only long-term option the Patriots acquired in that draft came with their 23rd overall pick: left tackle Isaiah Wynn.
The verdict is still out on their 2019 draft class. First-round pick N'Keal Harry only played in eight games last season, but nevertheless showed he has a long way to go before he is the no. 1 option in New England's passing game. Winovich and punter Jake Bailey proved to be impactful players in Year 1 with the team, but players like Damien Harris, Joejuan Williams, Yodny Cajuste and Hjalte Froholdt had a hard time just making the game day roster in 2019 (for various reasons not limited to performance). Jarrett Stidham developed quite a bit as a rookie, but the only way to tell if he can be a capable NFL starter is by plugging him in during a meaningful game.
That's why this week in Indianapolis is so important for the future of the Patriots franchise. Belichick and company need to get a strong grasp of what this year's draft class can do at the next level, and those evaluations are made firsthand at the NFL Combine. You can best bet there will also be plenty of Patriots-related rumors being leaked at the event, especially ones involving New England's free-agent QB.
If the Patriots hit on this year's draft, their dominance can extend into a third-straight decade. But if they have another draft class similar to what we've seen in recent memory, it's more likely their dominance comes to a screeching halt.
