Behind Enemy Lines: Analyzing Seahawks Week 17 Matchup with 49er Maven
With each team vying for an NFC West title, the Seahawks and 49ers will square off under the lights on Sunday Night Football to close out the 2019 regular season.
Heading into the much-anticipated, high stakes divisional rematch, I teamed up with Jose Sanchez of 49er Maven to break down some of the game's biggest questions, including how Seattle will attempt to defend superstar tight end George Kittle.
Jose Sanchez (JS): Back in Week 10, I asked you if the Monday night matchup between the 49ers and Seahawks could reignite their rivalry. How does that look now that both teams will be duking it out for the division in one last showdown?
Corbin Smith (CS): While I was skeptical to an extent six weeks ago, I think it’s safe to say the rivalry has returned to 2012-2013 levels. When you have a game go down to the wire like the first matchup between these teams did and the stakes are far greater in the rematch, there’s a reason why there’s so much hype surrounding this prime time game. It’s been circled on the calendar ever since Jason Myers’ last second field goal split the uprights and Seattle picked up the signature road win in Santa Clara on Veterans Day. Everyone has been itching to see these two teams that don’t like each other take the field again with hopes the final NFL regular season game turns into another instant classic.
How would you compare the atmosphere surrounding this game to those exciting matchups from 2012 and 2013? How much of a factor do you think home field advantage will be?
JS: 2012 and 2013 were unique because the 49ers had not been in any relevant games until 2011. There was a much more humbling feel that everything was a luxury because the team had not been successful for 10 years. Now that there is actual history of success and a real rivalry between the Seahawks, this Sunday night will feel exponentially hyped up compared to those seasons, especially with how the 49ers have performed this season. As for the home field advantage, it is well-known that CenturyLink Field is a monster. The atmosphere shakes most teams that enters its walls. It will definitely play a factor, though it is not that significant as everyone thinks it will be. The 49ers had to duel with the Saints in the Super Dome, which is a hectic place. Yet, they ended up winning that game in a shootout. They are battle hardened for chaotic atmospheres, so this should not severely derail them.
It’s no secret that Sunday night is a crucial game for both teams. This is the time where the star players for each team need to show up. Russell Wilson is one of those stars who will garner much interest heading into this matchup. However, his performance since Week 10 has declined. He no longer looks like the lights out MVP candidate we talked about entering the first matchup. Why has his performance regressed? And do you believe he can pick it back up on Sunday night?
CS: I think numerous factors have played into Wilson’s statistical regression. For one, the offensive line has been dealing with multiple injuries and even when pressure isn’t coming, it feels like he is looking at the pass rush rather than his receivers downfield. He’s hearing footsteps when defenders aren’t always closing in on him and he’s creating pressure by trying to escape the pocket before he needs to. Secondly, there’s been some instability at receiver. Tyler Lockett wasn’t healthy for several weeks after suffering a shin bruise the first game against the 49ers, Josh Gordon just got suspended again, and the team has continued to feel the loss of tight end Will Dissly. Add in the fact the run game has been hindered by losing three running backs in less than a month and he’s had to carry an even greater load than he did during the first 12 weeks of the season. All things considered, however, the wheels haven't fallen off Wilson and he's more than capable of bouncing back in a big way with the division title on the line.
San Francisco’s defense ranked among the league’s best through the first 12 weeks. But in the past three games, they’ve given up 97 points, or more than 30 points per game. They’ve also registered just two sacks during that span. What have been some of the most noticeable differences for Robert Saleh’s unit? What adjustments do you see him making against Wilson and Seattle?
JS: There really haven't been any differences to his game plan. Opposing offenses have constantly double-teamed or chipped Nick Bosa and have utilized ways to neutralize the pass rush. Whether it is quick passes or bootlegs like the Rams did last week, there has been a lot of counters on the side of the opposition. However, the real culprit for why the pass rush hasn't been as vicious is the injuries. The pass rushers have actually generated a good amount of pressure, but they have failed to finish. The injuries to the 49ers’ defense have been massive, but none have felt it more than the defensive line. Without D.J. Jones, Ronald Blair, Dee Ford, it has forced the core three pass rushers to produce more, which is over the top. Now this pass rush depends on the return of Ford. Until he returns, I do not believe this pass rush will be able to stack sacks.
Losing Chris Carson for the season looked like a decent blow to Seattle’s offense until they reunited with Marshawn Lynch earlier this week. He’s a great addition to help fill the hole left by Carson. Do you see Lynch being able to instantly takeover the same duties as Carson in terms of snaps and volume?
CS: Asking a 33-year old running back to climb off the couch and run the football in the NFL sounds ludicrous, but Lynch isn’t an ordinary running back. I think he came out of the womb looking for people to stiff arm and run over. Given his age and the fact he hasn’t played in a game for over a year, Seattle won’t and shouldn’t expect him to take over as the team’s bell cow back replacing Carson. Rookie Travis Homer still will likely play the most snaps, as coach Pete Carroll said they’ll “lean” on him since he’s been active all year and understands the system inside and out. With that said, if he’s in as good of shape as the Seahawks have indicated this week, it wouldn’t be surprising to see him get 10-12 carries and find some success on the ground. He still looked to have something left in the tank before going on injured reserve with the Raiders last year and his presence should ignite the entire football team.
While the 49ers have been one of the best defenses against the pass, they’ve been average defending the run this year and injuries have piled up in the interior defensive line. D.J. Jones was lost for the year a few weeks ago and now Julian Taylor is heading to injured reserve with a torn ACL, further depleting depth. How concerned should San Francisco be about Seattle’s ability to run between the tackles? And who will the 49ers lean on to fill the void with Jones and Taylor sidelined?
JS: The 49ers will surely be concerned, as they have felt for weeks now at the position. Julian Taylor was the last hope for the interior defensive line. Without him, the interior will now need to rely on Sheldon Day and Kentavius Street. At the very least, there is hope they can be sufficient, which is possible from what they have shown so far. Still, the 49ers are in trouble when it comes to their interior defensive line depth. It just makes the return of Dee Ford that much more crucial. They need all hands on deck or they will never be able to make a significant impact.
Duane Brown will be out of action on Sunday night, which means Jamarco Jones is in line to start. Jones did not have an ideal game to say the least against Arizona last week. He’ll have the duty of going up against Nick Bosa. He might even get some overloaded blitzes to his side to overwhelm him. Is there going to be an emphasis to provide support to Jones? And what are some ways that Seattle can hold the 49ers’ pass rush at bay?
CS: Jones actually played well earlier this season when he started twice in place of D.J. Fluker at right guard, but he certainly had his share of issues trying to block Chandler Jones last week. The Seahawks will definitely have to consider providing some help for him going against Bosa. I could see George Fant lining up next to him as an additional lineman for a fair number of snaps and running backs being sent to chip against the star rookie defensive end. Getting the football out of Wilson’s hands quickly will also be beneficial to Jones, who has shown some promise in his limited chances. But I think getting the ground game going is arguably the most important way to keep Bosa at bay. Run at him a bit, try to get him worn down, and mitigate him impact pinning his ears back pursuing Wilson.
Speaking of blitzes, Wilson has typically been one of the best quarterbacks against pressure in the NFL. But over the past few games, he’s had more issues moving the football against extra pressure. The 49ers don’t blitz much – in fact, they have the fourth-lowest blitz percentage on drop backs according to Pro Football Reference. Seeing the success Arizona had bringing extra rushers last week, do you see Saleh replicating that aggressiveness? Or sticking with status quo?
JS: Saleh is sure to take note of last week’s woes for Seattle's offense, but he has shown that he will not dramatically change his defense's identity just for one game. He will surely blitz some, but not heavily. You are right that the 49ers are one the least blitz-happy defenses, but they are also one of the most efficient defenses when they dial up the blitz. Saleh is timely with it and has a knack for when to call it. Expect at least five-to-10 blitzes against the offense, while still putting an emphasis on coverage and four man rushes.
George Kittle was not active for the initial Week 10 matchup and his absence was clearly felt. This time around Kittle is relatively healthy and is slated to play on Sunday night. Seattle will have to plan around his threat as a receiver and a blocker. What do you think their defense can do to slow Kittle down? Also, if Quandre Diggs is not available how can the defense adjust without him?
CS: I’m really curious how Seattle will attempt to corral Kittle because of the injury situation. If Diggs somehow is able to play coming back from an ankle sprain, that creates additional flexibility for defensive coordinator Ken Norton Jr. He could opt to deploy some “big” nickel packages with Lano Hill in coverage against Kittle as they did last December. Hill actually did a decent job in coverage against the star tight end, swatting away a pass intended for Kittle in the end zone and having another pass deflection negated by a questionable pass interference call. But if Diggs can’t play, Hill will be starting for him at free safety. Under those circumstances, cornerback Akeem King and safety Marquise Blair may be asked to cover Kittle, but they’ll need to have another defender shading him in coverage at all times and that creates opportunities for other 49er receivers.
Kittle isn’t the only injured player returning to action for this rematch. Emmanuel Sanders is back in action and he gave the Seahawks a lot of problems before exiting early in Week 10. Last time around, Jimmy Garoppolo picked on cornerback Jamar Taylor in the slot frequently. Taylor is now gone and has been replaced by rookie Ugo Amadi. Do you see Garoppolo and coach Kyle Shanahan attacking Seattle from the slot with Sanders and Deebo Samuel? And do you see any advantages on the outside for San Francisco?
JS: There is no doubt that Shanahan will attack from the slot. It wouldn't have mattered if there was a rookie there or not. Operating out of the slot in the pass game is a staple in this offense. The fact that a rookie is there just makes it more enticing, so expect to see multiple looks out of there since they have at least three different players they can target out of the slot. As for the outside, there really isn't an advantage they have. This offense has never really had an advantage in most games on the outside, yet they still find a way to get their guys open. It is both the genius of Shanahan and the talent of their receivers. Shaquill Griffin is a solid cornerback, but the 49ers will definitely challenge him. I believe George Kittle will be the focal point of this game, especially if Quandre Diggs cannot go. Seattle's linebackers have been one of the worst groups in the NFL in coverage, so Kittle is in line for an enormous day. The outside is a threat, but the slot is always the most enticing. It just depends on how the game plays out.
