History Suggests Re-Signing Rashaad Penny Worth Gamble For Seahawks
Finally able to curb the constant injuries that have dogged him throughout his NFL career, Rashaad Penny emerged as one of the league's most dangerous playmaking threats for the Seahawks during the final six games of the 2021 campaign.
Only weeks away from free agency, Penny seized his first opportunity to start for Seattle and then some, rushing for 706 yards, six touchdowns, and nearly seven yards per carry as the team closed out the season winning four of its final six contests. Headlined by two 170-plus yard outings, he averaged 117 rushing yards per game during that stretch, which would equate to nearly 2,000 yards in a 17-game season.
Further illustrating Penny's dominance, the former San Diego State standout transformed into human dynamite ripping off eight runs of 25 or more yards in that span, tying Colts star Jonathan Taylor for the league lead. Remarkably, he accomplished this feat on 213 fewer carries than Taylor, exhibiting unique explosiveness and breakaway speed at 235 pounds. He also became just the 14th player in league history to produce at least four games with 130 rushing yards, a touchdown, and six yards per carry average in a single season.
After being labeled as a first-round bust due to his inability to stay on the field, Penny could not have picked a better time for a breakout. The 26-year old back will become an unrestricted free agent on March 16 and though the position his been devalued in recent years, his strong performance down the stretch may yield a more fruitful market than expected.
What does that mean for Penny's chances of returning to the Seahawks? General manager John Schneider and the front office have every reason to be cautious when it comes to doling out big bucks to a back who has consistently struggled with durability. But history suggests they should be more than willing to make a significant investment in him or they run the risk of letting a budding superstar walk for next to nothing.
Per Pro Football Reference, only five running backs since 1950 produced over 700 rushing yards, scored at least six rushing touchdowns, and averaged at least six yards per carry in the final six games of the season. Most recently, Titans star Derrick Henry accomplished the feat in back to back seasons in 2019 and 2020. Hall of Famer Barry Sanders, Clinton Portis, DeAngelo Williams, and Jamaal Charles also hit those marks to close out a season one time apiece.
Thanks to his unexpected awakening in December and January, Penny joined that exclusive group, immediately creating questions about whether his success was simply flash in the pan or a sign of things to come in the future. Looking at the previous six examples, the Seahawks should feel pretty good about his chances of carrying momentum from his strong finish into 2022.
| Player | Age | Year | Yards | Yards/Carry | Touchdowns |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Barry Sanders | 29 | 1997* | 950 | 7.1 | 7 |
30 | 1998 | 1,491 | 4.3 | 4 | |
Clinton Portis | 21 | 2002* | 760 | 6.2 | 10 |
22 | 2003 | 1,591 | 5.5 | 14 | |
DeAngelo Williams | 25 | 2008* | 733 | 6.1 | 12 |
26 | 2009 | 1,117 | 5.2 | 7 | |
Jamaal Charles | 23 | 2009* | 807 | 6.4 | 6 |
24 | 2010 | 1,467 | 6.4 | 5 | |
Derrick Henry | 25 | 2019* | 708 | 6.1 | 8 |
26 | 2020 | 2,027 | 5.4 | 17 | |
Derrick Henry | 26 | 2020* | 948 | 6.4 | 8 |
27 | 2021 | 937 | 4.3 | 10 | |
Rashaad Penny | 25 | 2021* | 706 | 6.9 | 6 |
Of the five players who put up those gaudy numbers, only one of them failed to hit 1,000 rushing yards the following season. In that lone instance, Henry would have easily surpassed that mark last season if not for a broken foot that landed him on injured reserve after producing 937 yards in just 10 games for Tennessee. During the season prior, he won the rushing title for a second consecutive season with 2,027 yards and 17 touchdowns as an encore.
In the other cases, Sanders followed up the best year of his illustrious career with another outstanding season at the age of 30, surpassing 1,400 yards for the fifth straight season and seventh time in his career. Frustrated by constant losing in Detroit, he surprised many by opting to hang up his cleats and walk away from the game while still playing at an elite level.
Thriving in Mike Shanahan's scheme, Portis continued a remarkable start to his career following up his Rookie of the Year-winning season with 1,591 yards in 2003, quickly surfacing as one of the NFL's brightest young stars. Meanwhile Williams still managed over 1,100 yards despite missing three games due to injury in 2009 and Charles averaged a ridiculous 6.4 yards per carry for a full season in 2010.
From a talent standpoint, Penny has proven he can be the same caliber of game changer as the five aforementioned backs when healthy. Before tearing his ACL late in the 2019 season, he appeared to be on the verge of a breakout when he rushed for over 120 yards in a win over the Eagles and followed up with 100-plus all-purpose yards and two scores in a win over the Vikings. Efficient with his opportunities, he averaged 5.3 yards per attempt in his first two seasons in a reserve role.
The issue, until the end of last season of course, has been that the Seahawks haven't been able to keep him off the trainer's table long enough for him to develop and play to his immense potential. Thanks in large part to a prolonged recovery from reconstructive knee surgery, Penny has missed 31 combined regular season and playoff games in his career. Such a lengthy injury history will undoubtedly impact what his market could have been, particularly at a position already known for a short shelf life due to the constant battering they take from defenders.
Teammate Chris Carson, who has had his own trouble staying healthy, came back to Seattle last offseason on a two-year deal after receiving underwhelming offers from other teams. Schneider will likely be hoping for a similar scenario to play out with Penny, keeping his fingers crossed that a random team won't decide to go all-in and open up the checkbook to sign him.
Regardless, with Carson's future still uncertain coming off neck surgery, Penny should be viewed as one of the Seahawks bigger priorities to re-sign heading into free agency. While they won't want to break the bank to make it happen and shouldn't engage in a bidding war if one does commence, they need to be willing to go as high as $5-6 million per year to bring him back, as his undeniable talent and evident value to their offense make him well-worth the gamble.
