The routes taken by the Houston Texans and Jacksonville Jaguars this season have been different, but they've surprisingly reached the same destination. No one is surprised to see the Jaguars at the bottom of the standings, but the Texans season sinking like a lead balloon has been a shock to their fans. The Jacksonville Jaguars are not just the worst team in the league this season, but one of the worst teams of all time statistically.
With how bad the Jaguars are, it would stand to reason that I should pick the Texans to win and probably win comfortably, but I have some doubt. I say that because the same logic could have been applied to home games against the Rams and Raiders, but they lost to both teams, including a 25 point embarrassment in week six against St. Louis. On paper, the Texans are a much better team than Jacksonville. However, the Texans record against the Vegas spread (1-8-1) is even worse than their actual record, so expecting the Texans to meet expectations week to week is just foolish at this point.
Let the Bridgewater Bowl begin!
Not sure, will you let me know when you find one? - I had to look long and hard to find a stat that had the Jaguars in the top ten, but I found it; two-point conversion percentage. The Jaguars have converted fifty percent of their two-point conversion attempts which ranks 9th in the league. So, you've been warned Texans fans, if the game comes down to a two point conversion attempt from the Jaguars, they might win. Probably not, but they might.
Everything - The Jaguars have been awful this season. Jacksonville ranks 32nd in both yards and points on offense, and 29th in yards/31st in points on defense. Their quarterbacks Chad Henne and Blaine Gabbert have combined to throw just 5 touchdowns to 16 interceptions through 10 games this season. Their leading rusher and star player Maurice Jones-Drew is averaging 2.9 yards per carry and 45.5 rushing yards per game. Not surprisingly, those numbers are the worst in the league among the 13 running backs with at least 150 rush attempts.
The best number I found to illustrate just how bad the Jaguars have been this season is point differential. They're average point differential this season is -18.9; their average game is a three score loss! Three teams in the NFL (Jaguars, Jets, Buccaneers) average fewer than 18.9 points per game. No other team has a negative point differential over -9; the Jets are second at -8.5 points per game. There hasn't been a negative differential over two touchdowns (-14) since 2009 when the Rams "topped" the league at -16.3 points per game. Even the 0-16 2008 Detroit Lions had a better differential at -15.6 points per game. The last time an NFL team finished with a worse differential than the Jaguars current number of -18.9, was all the way back in 1976 when the 0-14 Tampa Bay Buccaneers, or the Yucks, had a differential of -20.5 points per game.
If the Texans can't win this game, at home, against this team; no doubt they'll end up with the number one overall pick in the 2014 NFL draft.