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The Tennessee Titans are a team that needs a break. And they will get one – after they face the Kansas City Chiefs on Sunday at Nissan Stadium.

Nine straight weeks of games (13 other teams have done the same) have left the Titans (4-5) physically weary as evidenced by their current injury issues and mentally stressed by the fact that they have been stuck at the bottom of the division standings for some time now. They expected to contend for a playoff spot. Instead their starting quarterback was benched and if their defense had not bailed them out with a couple of game-saving stands recently, things would be even worse.

Their bye is Nov. 17, which will provide an opportunity to regroup and reenergize for the final six games. First, though, they have to deal with one of the AFC’s best teams. Kansas City is 6-3 and has gotten through the last two games without starting quarterback Patrick Mahomes, who has recovered enough from a recent knee injury to start against Tennessee.

Three reasons to believe the Titans will win Sunday

Run Derrick Run: The Chiefs have one of the NFL’s worst run defenses. Opponents have rushed for an average of 139.6 yards per game and 4.8 yards per attempt, both of which rank in the bottom five of the league. More than one out of every four runs against them have resulted in a first down. The start of the second half last week against Carolina was a stark reminder of how important running back Derrick Henry is to the Titans’ offense and how important it is that he gets the ball early and often. Henry will be busy and will make things difficult for the Chiefs.

Tannehill’s turn: Going back to 2007, Tennessee has won five of the last seven against Kansas City. Those five victories have come with four different starting quarterbacks, Vince Young (2007), Kerry Collins (2008), Jake Locker (2014) and Marcus Mariota (2017 twice, once in the playoffs). This will be Ryan Tannehill’s fourth start for the Titans. Tannehill (pictured) has only faced the Chiefs once in his career, back in 2014 when he was with Miami, and that one was a loss. This time he is with the Titans, a team that seemingly can top Kansas City with almost anyone in that position.

Settling in: It might not provide the advantage it once did, but Nissan Stadium is still the Titans’ home field and they still tend to do pretty well there. Tennessee has had a winning record at home each of the past three seasons, including 6-2 in each of the last two. They already have lost two home games this season, but they have evened that mark at 2-2 with victories in the last two. And they have done so despite the fact that they have yet to play their best at home. This would be a good time to do so and to send a message to the teams that still have to visit this season.

Three reasons to believe the Titans will lose Sunday

Too many injuries: Kansas City has one of the NFL’s best offenses and that unit will be close to its best with the return of quarterback Patrick Mahomes from injury. The Titans have one of the NFL’s better defenses but that unit will be missing starters at every level. The line won’t have Jurrell Casey, who will miss his second straight game with a shoulder injury. The linebackers will be without Jayon Brown, who is dealing with a second go-round with a groin injury. And the secondary won’t have cornerback Malcolm Butler, who was placed on injured reserve this week with a wrist injury. It’s simply asking too much of too many backups to keep the Chiefs in check.

Anytime, anywhere: Tennessee’s defense has allowed big plays at bad times in every defeat (pretty much every win as well) this season. Kansas City’s offense makes more big plays than any NFL team. The Chiefs lead the league with 47 plays of 20-plus yards and have scored 108 points of plays from outside the red zone, which is also tops in the league. They have seven different receivers with at least 10 catches and an average of better than 13 yards-per-reception. They also have five players with multiple touchdown catches. If the Titans can’t keep them from long gains (and most teams haven’t) it’s going to be a long day.

Kicking it: Kansas City comes to town off a 26-23 victory over Minnesota last Sunday, a game decided when Chiefs kicker Harrison Butker made a 44-yard field goal as time expired. Butker also tied it 23-23 when he split the uprights from 54 yards with 2:30 remaining (he also made two other field goals earlier in the contest). The third-year veteran has missed just three field goals (on 19 attempts) and leads the NFL with 84 points. Ryan Succop missed three field goal attempts last Sunday alone, which was not even the worst performance by a Tennessee kicker this season (see: Cairo Santos vs. Buffalo). Teams that make the most of their scoring opportunities typically in in the NFL, and Kansas City is much better at that than the Titans.

The bottom line

If Mahomes is well enough that he plays at or near the level that earned him the 2018 NFL Most Valuable Player Award, it is hard to see any way the Titans win this one. When that offense is at its best, Kansas City scores too much for Tennessee’s inconsistent offense to keep pace.

If Mahomes is limited in any way, it will be up to the defense to identify those limitations and exploit them. The Titans have leaned on their defense more often than not through the first nine weeks and in this one, that unit has to be the difference-maker in order to get a win.