Mock Check: Analytics Delivers an Edge Rusher
There are draft analysts. Plenty of them.
And then there are analytics.
Monday, NFL Network analytics expert Cynthia Frelund rolled out her latest mock 2020 NFL Draft.
Rather than offer her opinion of what teams might do, she takes a mathematical approach that assigns a numerical value to each draft prospect and quantifies the strengths and weaknesses in a way that produces a projected 2020 win total. The formula, she says, improves over time as each year provides additional information as well as subjective input from league personnel about why certain players did not perform as well as expected.
For a mock draft, Frelund’s model then selects which draft prospect fits best with a particular franchise based on one basic notion.
“This is not meant to predict how the draft will play out in reality,” she wrote. “Rather, I am using this model to … examine what teams should do if winning the most games in 2020 is the only goal.”
The result, in this case, is that the Titans get Penn State outside linebacker Yetur Gross-Matos with pick No. 29.
Most prospect rankings consider Gross-Matos a borderline first-round pick. He is No. 32 on SI.com’s big board (see video).
At 6-foot-5, 264 pounds, Gross-Matos has the size and length Tennessee would like at the position. Plus, he is productive. He had 17 sacks and 34.5 tackles for loss over the past two seasons.
However, the prevailing theory seems to be that he is a much better fit in a 4-3 scheme than in a 3-4 such as the Titans employ. But that is the opinion of analysts. This is analytics.
Certainly, Gross-Matos is someone Titans scouts and coaches will study closely ahead of the draft.
Frelund’s model determined that edge rusher, defensive tackle and right tackle are the Titans’ most pressing needs in the 2020 Draft (you don’t need analytics to realize that). In her mock, the numbers say there will be no better option when it comes time for Tennessee to make its first pick.
