Insider 'truly' believes Vikings will sign Sam Darnold, use J.J. McCarthy as trade bait

The NFL is a fickle business. When a quarterback doesn't meet the biggest moments, their success in other games is quickly overshadowed, like a needle lost in a haystack.
Just ask Kirk Cousins. After his 2022 season with the Vikings, he knows all too well that throwing short of the sticks on fourth-and-8 in a playoff game can erase the memory of eight game-winning drives and a 13-win regular season.
That’s why it feels borderline crazy for the Vikings to consider paying Sam Darnold to return as their starter in 2025, especially when J.J. McCarthy could be ready to lead the franchise as a 22-year-old on a rookie contract. Why stick with Darnold after consecutive disasters in high-pressure moments against the Lions and Rams?
Granted, it’s not entirely Darnold’s fault. He faced relentless pressure—33 times against Detroit and 32 times against the Rams. But great quarterbacks find ways to thrive under pressure. Darnold’s kryptonite has always been just that: pressure. The best defenses will inevitably turn up the heat in critical moments, and Darnold has yet to prove he can handle it.
Stay up to date on all things Vikings by bookmarking Minnesota Vikings On SI, subscribing to our YouTube channel, and signing up to receive our free Vikings newsletter.
Still, some believe Darnold is the right choice to lead the Vikings’ future. ESPN's Benjamin Solak is among them, speculating that the Vikings will commit to Darnold with a $40 million-per-year deal while potentially using McCarthy as trade bait.
“I really, truly believe the Vikings will extend Darnold,” Solak writes. “They have the room for something in the Daniel Jones neighborhood—four years, $160 million is probably optimal if they can get Darnold to sign before another team offers him a blockbuster deal. Depending on the size of the contract, they’ll either keep McCarthy or quietly trade him ahead of a weak quarterback draft class and see if a desperate team bites.”
Minnesota can afford Darnold, with an estimated $70.5 million in cap space. However, that space will need to stretch to upgrade the interior offensive line and re-sign or replace up to eight key defensive players. Financially, starting McCarthy is the easier answer.
During the season-ending press conferences, head coach Kevin O’Connell and general manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah were tight-lipped, but Adofo-Mensah praised McCarthy’s potential.
“We’re really confident in him, his work ethic, and his preparation, but I can’t sit here and tell you I know anything for certain,” Adofo-Mensah said when asked about McCarthy starting in 2025. “I’m willing to believe in the person we have. That position is about talent and preparation, and he has those in spades. If that’s the direction we choose, we’ll go there confidently.”
McCarthy may be an unknown, but he was competing for first-team reps before suffering a preseason knee injury. O’Connell admitted the Vikings weren’t sure how the rest of the preseason would’ve unfolded if McCarthy had stayed healthy. This suggests Darnold’s remarkable regular season might never have happened had the rookie been available.
Now, McCarthy enters his true rookie season in 2025 with a year of mental reps under his belt. The Vikings must be optimistic, especially considering how recent college quarterbacks like Houston’s C.J. Stroud, Washington’s Jayden Daniels, and Denver’s Bo Nix have become instant stars in the NFL.
Meanwhile, Lions fans questioning Jared Goff after his poor showing against the Rams should raise even more concerns about Darnold. Like Goff, Darnold excelled during the regular season but folded when it mattered most.
In 10 career playoff starts, Goff has thrown for more than one touchdown just once, and that was a two-touchdown game in last year's divisional round against the Buccaneers. And yes, he was the quarterback when the Rams lost to the Patriots in the Super Bowl in 2019, but he completed just 50% of his passes and didn't throw a touchdown in that game.
There's literally nothing in Darnold's history that says he will be different.
What good is a 14- or 15-win regular season if the quarterback at the helm collapses under postseason pressure? It might seem harsh to judge Darnold on a single playoff game, but the Vikings’ championship window is wide open. They can’t afford to get the quarterback decision wrong—and going forward with Darnold feels like a gamble they might not want to take.