Stat Scouting: What Numbers Predict for WFT vs. Seahawks
Twice in two weeks, the less-experienced and much-less-established Washington Football Team quarterback has toppled decorated veterans.
On paper? Taylor Heinicke shouldn't be able to out-do the other QB in leading his WFT squad over Tom Brady and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, and after that, the talk of the week was all about Cam Newton's return to lead the Carolina Panthers.
In both games, Heinicke gave the best performances of his career, and it helped Washington overcome long odds, and tough competition. Twice.
And this weekend, the stats and odds lean towards Heinicke's crew. Although it didn't start that way.
When the odds on this game first came out, Seattle (3-6) was actually favored, but since then the tides have shifted a bit.
Now, WFT (4-6) is a one-point favorite to win this week's Monday Night Football contest, according to many sites.
Seems nobody is quite ready to fully believe in what Washington has done in the two-game winning streak, or they're not ready to believe the Seahawks' decline has come as suddenly as it appears.
While the betting opportunities may be a little foggy, what is clear is the expectation that Heinicke and Seattle quarterback Russell Wilson are about to lock into a tight competition, with no room for error.
Statistically, Heinicke will bring in his mostly-modest offense averaging 347.8 yards per game (19th in the NFL), to go against a Seattle defense ranked 31st in total offense allowed, surrendering 401.8 yards per game.
The highest ranking for the Washington offense through 11 weeks is the rushing attack (10th), and while Seattle's rush defense is actually statistically better than its pass defense, it still ranks 23rd in the NFL, allowing 122.2 yards each week.
From a defensive outlook, defensive coordinator Jack Del Rio has the Washington defense boasting a Top-10 run defense. This is good, because Seattle's rushing attack ranks higher compared to other NFL offenses, coming in 23rd compared to its 30th ranked passing attack.
Of course, stats and rankings don't win games - points do. And this is where the odds Washington will win take a hit in the numbers department.
Perhaps this is where we find the tight betting lines we're seeing, early in the week.
While WFT surrenders 21.2 points per game, Seattle is only averaging 19.4.
However, the Seahawks defense is holding opponents to 20.9 points per game on average, compared to Washington, which is allowing 26.7 on average.
Now if you take a 'What have you done lately?' approach, Washington is coming off a stretch of two games allowing 21 points or fewer in back-to-back wins, while Seattle is riding two losses, despite holding each of its previous two opponents to 23 points or fewer.
Two teams traveling in opposite directions it would seem, at perhaps the most critical time of year as it relates to playoff seeding. ... and a game about to move from "on paper'' to "for real.''
