September 19, 2008
Experts' Picks: Dover Cup
  My Pick: Carl Edwards
Why he'll win: No driver has been faster at Dover over the last four races than Edwards. Over that stretch he's won once, finished second twice, and came in third one other time. It says here Edwards, the current points leader in the standings, will assert his dominance in the Chase on Sunday.
Keep an eye on: Greg Biffle -- Biffle, like Edwards, has a history of success at Dover. He won the pole here earlier this season and in his last seven starts at the Monster Mile he has one win, four top-fives, and six top-10s. It would surprise no one in the garage if Biffle, who took the checkers last week in New Hampshire, reaches Victory Lane on Sunday.
Don't expect much from: Dale Earnhardt, Jr. -- Little E's performance at Dover has been up-and-down over the last few years. Yes, he finished third in this race last season, but he came in 35th at Dover earlier this year and in his last seven starts at the track he's finished 20th or worse five times.
  My Pick: Jimmie Johnson
Why he'll win: Nobody's running better right now, and Johnson loves Dover almost as much as he loves the Chase. He's got three wins in 13 starts at the Monster Mile.
Keep an eye on: Greg Biffle -- The Biff is another driver who loves Dover, and as we saw last week at New Hampshire, his car can be awesome. If he wins here (or even just runs in the top five), the Chase is going to be very interesting in the weeks ahead.
Don't expect much from: Kevin Harvick -- He had his problems last week, and Dover doesn't seem to be the place for him to overcome them. In 15 starts, he's got just five top-10 runs.
  My Pick: Kyle Busch
Why he'll win: After a devastating 34th place finish in Loudon, Busch went from title favorite to serious underdog in the blink of an eye. Now eighth in the standings, 74 out of the lead, Busch needs to win -- and quickly -- to get his team headed in the right direction. That should happen at Dover, where he led over 150 laps en route to a dominating victory in June.
Keep an eye on: Greg Biffle -- Five days after his win at Loudon, everyone's anointed Biffle this year's Chase Cinderella. But the slipper won't fit without a second straight solid run, and the Monster Mile presents an opportunity for The Biff to make a serious case as title contender. Considering he hasn't finished worse than 13th here since the Spring of 2004, chances are high he'll pull through.
Don't expect much from: Denny Hamlin -- Last year, Hamlin had his most embarrassing moment of the Chase at Dover, crashing and then fighting with lovable veteran Kyle Petty. After a second straight wreck this summer, the third-year driver's average finish here has fallen to 21st.
  My Pick: Kyle Busch
Why he'll win: After a miserable start to the Chase at New Hampshire, it's time for Busch to claw his way back into contention. This is the first time all season he's had to fight his way back and will be a real test if he is to ultimately become the Sprint Cup champion in 2008. .
Keep an eye on: Carl Edwards -- The defending winner of this race continues to be hot but with so much unpredictability at Dover, it's tough to repeat on the concrete oval. However, he continues to be hot at the right time.
Don't expect much from: Jeff Burton -- He has just one win in 29 previous Dover races. He was seventh last year and eighth earlier this year, so based on past performances it's hard to expect to see him break through with a win on Sunday.
  My Pick: Kyle Busch
Why he'll win: You didn't hardly think you were done with him already, did you? Not just a winner of the June race, but a two-time runner-up and has finished fifth twice in seven starts. His win will thrust him back into the championship hunt, where Jimmie Johnson will deal with him later.
Keep an eye on: Greg Biffle -- He's a fun driver to watch when he's in pursuit of something big. And he's chasing history, trying to become the first to win titles in all three of NASCAR's top divisions. The winner at New Hampshire last week, he's finished no worse than eighth in his last five Dover starts and was second this summer.
Don't expect much from: Matt Kenseth -- He's a former Dover winner, but he entered the Chase feeling dicey about his chances and a crash-out (though unlucky) at New Hampshire last week has his program going in the wrong direction.
  My Pick: Carl Edwards
Why he'll win: Edwards has been a contender in his last four races at the Monster Mile. He won this race last year, was second in June, was second and third in the two previous races and has led laps in the past five. With how fast he's run everywhere this season, there's every reason to think Edwards will be tough to beat Sunday.
Keep an eye on: Kyle Busch -- Dover is the critical race of the season for Busch and the No. 18 team, who need to shake off the mistake-filled 34th in the opening race of the Chase last week. Busch led 158 laps and won by 4.2 seconds in June and also has two seconds and two fifths in seven starts at Dover. Everybody steps up their game in the Chase and Busch needs to show he can, too.
Don't expect much from: >Tony Stewart -- Stewart has no top-fives, two top-10s, finished 15th or worse and hasn't led a lap in his last eight races at Dover. His 41st-place finish in June was caused by being caught up in a 10-car crash early, but he's struggled in most races for the past four years.
  My Pick: Carl Edwards
Why he'll win: Edwards is not only on top of the point standings, he won this race a year ago. In his last four Dover starts, his worse finish is third.
Keep an eye on: Kyle Busch -- Despite dominating the 2008 season, Busch has been moving steadily toward the back of the pack the last month. Dover could be good medicine as Busch has five top-five finishes at the track in seven career starts. He won the spring race at Dover.
Don't expect much from: Tony Stewart -- If things start going bad for Stewart, they will likely fall apart for the Joe Gibbs Racing lameduck. In Stewart's last seven starts at Dover, his best finish was a ninth this past spring.

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