Dr. Z's Forecast

November 22, 1999

How do you handicap emotion? You don't. You guess. Most of the
time you're surprised.

At no time this year has emotion run higher than it did two
weeks ago when the Ravens invaded Cleveland, which was stoked to
the eyeballs, looking to avenge Art Modell's defection. It ran
so high that even Baltimore coach Brian Billick got caught up in
it, predicting that it would be very hard for the Ravens to get
a fair shake from a league that wanted his guys to lose. Then
the Browns got murdered 41-9. A week later, they hung a 16-15
loss on the Steelers.

The Cowboys were in the pits after Troy Aikman and Emmitt Smith
went down in the Monday night loss to the Vikings. Deion Sanders
was hobbling on a strained groin and sore hamstring, and the
rest of the secondary was in tough shape. Here came the Packers,
losers of two straight, desperate to right a sinking ship. So
the Cowboys went out and played one of the most courageous games
in their fabled history--yes, even more stirring than all those
wins when Dallas had the great Doomsday Defense and Aikman and
Smith were operating at full throttle--because this time they
were going in shorthanded. Did you happen to catch their first
drive? Pure passion. They sustained it, too, whether it was
Chris Warren running the ball or Robert Chancey, a 250-pound
Bears castoff.

Or how about the Broncos, down to their third quarterback,
holding off the Seahawks until finally getting beaten in the
closing moments by a returning star--wideout Joey Galloway--who
ended his holdout at just the right time?

What happens a week later? Is the emotional supply tapped out,
or is there enough left to carry over for another Sunday?

I think the Cowboys will keep it going against the Cardinals, a
team they'd beaten in 16 of 17 regular-season games before being
humiliated by them in the playoffs last year. Last week Arizona
brought down the Lions with a running game that emerged from
nowhere. Now Detroit, which still holds a slim lead in the NFC
Central, will travel to Green Bay to find out what kind of mood
the Pack is in after its depressing loss. A nasty mood, I feel.
Green Bay has taken seven straight at home from Detroit, and I
look for the Packers to make it eight in a row by putting
together a big running game.

The Dolphins were humiliated in Buffalo. Tough weather
conditions, hostile crowd, fierce pressure on young quarterback
Damon Huard. Now Miami has the Patriots at home in the latest
AFC East Crucial Game of the Week. New England will blitz the
house against Huard, just as it has always done against Dan
Marino. But the Patriots will be surprised by a Miami defense
that struggled against the Bills but will take charge of this
game. I see a win for Miami in a game dictated by turnovers.

The Chiefs, whose defense is the turnover king of the NFL,
forced six of them against the Bucs but couldn't put enough
offense together to get the win. Seattle has Galloway back, but
I didn't like the way its offensive line got manhandled by the
Denver rush. Expect more turnovers for the K.C. defense and a
win for the Chiefs over the Seahawks at Arrowhead.

The Broncos, who have hung tough, will beat the Raiders at Mile
High on Monday night. The Titans will add to the woes of the
Steelers, who have yet to beat a team with a winning record. The
Bears, who still can't decide who their quarterback is despite
the career game that Jim Miller gave them on Sunday, will
squeeze one out in San Diego against a Chargers defense that's
finally showing signs of cracking, with 126 points allowed in
its last four games.

--Paul Zimmerman

COLOR PHOTO: BRIAN BAHR/ALLSPORT Eric Bjornson and the Cowboys got up for the Pack. Can they do the same for the Cardinals?

HOLE YARDS PAR R1 R2 R3 R4
OUT
HOLE YARDS PAR R1 R2 R3 R4
IN
Eagle (-2)
Birdie (-1)
Bogey (+1)
Double Bogey (+2)