Dr. Z's Forecast

October 15, 2000

Going into the season, every division except one had an
overwhelming favorite, and together they formed an elite corps of
Super Bowl contenders. But there was head-scratching all around
in the AFC West.

So where are we now? The Chargers are still looking for their
first win. The Seahawks (2-4) are fading fast, but they almost
nailed the Chiefs in Arrowhead. The Broncos (3-3) have been up
and down, but they handed the Raiders their only loss, and it was
in Oakland. The Chiefs (3-2) have won three straight, but except
for the win over San Diego, nothing has been easy. Finally we
come to the Raiders (4-1), who seemed to have Sunday's windblown
overtime game in San Francisco wrapped up, almost lost it, then
finally won it. Whew. Now they visit Arrowhead in an attempt to
seize control of the division.

Last year's Oakland-K.C. games were stirring indeed. In the first
one the Chiefs piled up 17 third-quarter points to win 37-34. The
Raiders returned the favor in Arrowhead, where they'd lost 11
straight, knocking the Chiefs out of the playoffs with a 41-38
victory. I'm sure Chiefs coach Gunther Cunningham won't let his
troops forget that defeat this week.

I like the Raiders, even though their top draft pick, kicker
Sebastian Janikowski, who was going to solve all their problems,
has struggled from the outset and missed the potential game
winner on Sunday; even though their defense tired badly; and even
though their quarterback, Rich Gannon, showed signs of wildness.
I think Oakland will run the ball on K.C., just as Seattle did,
and the Raiders' defense will generate some real heat.

Do you believe New England has turned the corner by virtue of its
win over Indy? The Patriots' last six trips inside the red zone
have produced five touchdowns and a field goal. I think they've
regained their scoring punch, and with Vinny Testaverde ailing, I
like the Pats over the Jets. The 49ers are another club on the
rebound, particularly their defense, and they catch the Packers
at a good time. Normally you'd go with Brett Favre over that
young secondary, but the Pack is too banged up. One vote for San
Francisco.

Indianapolis, which got a lesson in defensive wizardry on Sunday,
will bounce back against Seattle. Carolina put up big numbers
against the Seahawks, but somehow I don't see it happening this
week in the Superdome. New Orleans is the pick.

We have action at the genius level when Norv Turner's Washington
offense meets Marvin Lewis's Baltimore defense. But you never
know what the Ravens' offense is going to look like, and if it's
anything like that thing we saw against Jacksonville, you've got
to like the Skins. Hey, I do like the Skins. Philly, wild and a
bit out of control at times, will visit the desert and hang one
on Arizona. Dallas is coming off its bye week, but guess what?
Teams coming back from byes have dropped six of 11 this season.
Make it seven of 12. The Giants are the choice.

Finally, I suppose I have to pick the Jacksonville-Tennessee
Monday-nighter. I'd give the Jaguars a chance, on emotion or
desperation or something, if their offensive line were in decent
shape. It's not. The Titans are the pick.

--Paul Zimmerman

Send your pro football questions for Peter King's mailbag and
read more from Paul Zimmerman at cnnsi.com/football.

COLOR PHOTO: JOHN W. MCDONOUGH Oakland, which handled the 49ers' Charlie Garner, will defeat K.C., too.

HOLE YARDS PAR R1 R2 R3 R4
OUT
HOLE YARDS PAR R1 R2 R3 R4
IN
Eagle (-2)
Birdie (-1)
Bogey (+1)
Double Bogey (+2)