Dr. Z's Forecast

December 18, 2000

Last season the Buccaneers and the Rams battled each other for a
trip to the Super Bowl. The stakes won't be as high when they
meet again this Monday night, but the downside is scarier--the
specter of elimination before the playoffs even begin.

The cast for both sides is almost the same. The Bucs have their
furious defense, minus middle linebacker Hardy Nickerson. Because
of the talent they added this year, their offense should be
better than the outfit that hung around with the Rams until the
dying moments of last season's NFC Championship Game. Somehow,
though, it hasn't worked out that way.

Quarterback Shaun King was kind of an unknown commodity in '99.
Now we know that he leaves the pocket early when the protection
breaks down, and he seems more comfortable handing off the ball
to Warrick Dunn than throwing it. But just when you're ready to
give up on him, he comes up with a clutch play that keeps the
sticks moving.

The Rams, stung by intimations that their beautiful offense was a
thing of the past, responded with real anger against the Vikings
on Sunday. It was the anger of a fencing master, carving up an
opponent with epee or foil. First seven possessions, seven scores
(not counting a kneel to close out the first half), with
everything on rhythm and no dropped passes or fumbles or
penalties to speak of. It was as pretty an exhibition as you'd
want to see, and it came on the same day that Tampa Bay was
slugging it out with Miami in a soaking rain and winning with
defense--exactly the kind of game the Bucs enjoy most.

Tampa Bay showed the world how to tame the Rams last year. Keep
everything short, close on the receivers quickly so that they
can't turn little gains into big ones, don't miss tackles. I'm
sure the blueprint will be similar this time, but the game will
be played outdoors in Tampa instead of in the Rams' domed
stadium. When St. Louis's timing is off, the offense tends to
break down, as it did in Carolina two weeks ago. You disrupt the
timing with pressure, which is a Buccaneers specialty. The Rams
won't have the kind of picnic they had against the Vikings, but
they won't give the game away, either, as they did when they
turned the ball over seven times against the Panthers.

My prediction? If the game is played in a rainstorm like last
week's Miami-Tampa Bay downpour, I like the Bucs. If the turf is
dry and fast, I favor the Rams. I say the skies will be clear.
I'll take St. Louis.

We're stirring dying embers when we try to handicap
Pittsburgh-Washington. The Skins should have been fired up to
perform for their popular new coach, Terry Robiskie, last week.
Instead they were lifeless. The Steelers were physically whipped
by the Giants. I think Pittsburgh will bounce back, but the Skins
won't. There's something deeply wrong with that whole operation.
The Steelers will win.

The Jets will get back on track at home against an injured Lions
outfit. The Broncos will keep it going against the Chiefs at
Arrowhead. The condition of quarterback Jay Fiedler's left
shoulder puts an iffy aspect on Miami-Indy, but I think the
Dolphins can prevail with the running game and defense--and
Damon Huard, if he's the man. Finally, the Giants are due for an
emotional letdown after three weeks of coach Jim Fassel's
psychological games, and it could come in Dallas, where the
Cowboys--uh, do I really believe this? No, I don't. The Giants
are the pick.

--Paul Zimmerman

COLOR PHOTO: AL TIELEMANS Jerome Bettis and the Steelers will rebound against the Redskins.

HOLE YARDS PAR R1 R2 R3 R4
OUT
HOLE YARDS PAR R1 R2 R3 R4
IN
Eagle (-2)
Birdie (-1)
Bogey (+1)
Double Bogey (+2)