Dr. Z's Forecast Working overtime is just one of the factors going against the Raiders in Denver

November 11, 2002

Teams that played in an overtime game haven't done well the week
after. Their record is 4--15, not counting games against
opponents who were also coming back from OT. Fatigue, mental
strain, typical letdown--any of them could be contributing
factors, or maybe all of them. Two teams have come back from
overtime games to play an opponent coming off its bye--the
Browns, who against the Steelers went into overtime again before
losing, and the Titans, who got clobbered 52--25 by the Raiders.

These are the statistical handicaps Oakland faces when it plays
in Denver on Monday night. What's worse is the nature of the
Raiders' overtime loss to San Francisco on Sunday. Their defense
was worn down after the 49ers ran off the last 30 plays in the
game. How long the effects of the fatigue will last, especially
against the rested Broncos, who are coming off their bye week,
remains to be seen.

Here are some more bad statistics for Oakland fans. In his seven
years as Denver coach, Mike Shanahan has made the game against
the Raiders, who fired him once upon a time, a personal crusade.
He has never lost at home in seven meetings.

This, of course, will all be well-documented during the week, and
the Broncos will read it. If they take it too seriously, they
could lose some of their edge. I'm groping here. I'm trying to
find a way the Raiders can squeeze out a victory. But I don't
think they're going to stop Denver, not with the way their
secondary looked against San Francisco. Cornerback Charles
Woodson, coming back from a broken right shoulder, struggled. The
Broncos will put him to the test, and they'll put up points.
Defensively, I think Denver will use a minimum of nickel and dime
coverages against Oakland's three-wide package. The Broncos'
linebackers are quick enough to lock onto the short crossing
routes, and they're better equipped than defensive backs to
inflict punishment. Denver's the pick.

Here's another game that will test the bye-versus-OT-survivor
theory. The Niners play host to rested Kansas City, and they'd
better watch out. The Chiefs can score, and their defense is
better than it was a month ago. Do I sense an upset here? Well,
almost, but I can close my eyes and see Terrell Owens waltzing
through the K.C. secondary for about 150 yards. The Niners are
the pick, just barely.

The rampaging Jets face Miami at the Meadowlands with a 30--3
score to settle. New York is a different team than it was on
Sept. 22--different quarterback, different outlook, different
result. Yes, I'll go with the Jets. In Seattle the fans were
hollering for Jeff George on Sunday: "George! George! George!"
Nothing unusual there. They always holler for guys with
one-syllable names. It's too tough to pull off a "Hasselbeck!
Hasselbeck!" chant. That won't do the Seahawks any good in the
desert on Sunday. Seattle loses to Arizona and its one-syllable
QB, Snake!

The Giants get their second round of zippy play-calling from
coach Jim Fassel and beat the Vikings. The Steelers, noting the
way the Ravens spied Michael Vick, set up their own spy network
and top Atlanta. The Eagles keep it going against the Colts, the
most bedraggled-looking 4--4 team in the league, and the Saints
will have problems with the Carolina defense but not with the
quarterback; I'll give New Orleans the win.

The Rams top the Chargers, still in shock after the Jets hung one
on them. We'll ride along with the Redskins, a hot team after two
straight victories, against the Jaguars, and after falling off
New England's bandwagon last week, we'll climb back on and give
the Patriots the win over struggling Chicago. --Paul Zimmerman

Check out Dr. Z's Inside Football every week at
cnnsi.com/football.

COLOR PHOTO: PETER READ MILLER SAME OLD STORY? Woodson (24) and the Oakland defense will getworn down again.

HOLE YARDS PAR R1 R2 R3 R4
OUT
HOLE YARDS PAR R1 R2 R3 R4
IN
Eagle (-2)
Birdie (-1)
Bogey (+1)
Double Bogey (+2)