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Need To Know

Sept. 04, 2006
Sept. 04, 2006

Table of Contents
Sept. 4, 2006

SI Bonus Section: SI Fantasy Plus
From the Editor
Inside: The Week in Sports
2006 NFL Preview
Departments

Need To Know

SummerStuds
Despite the common perception, sometimes a player's preseason success doestranslate to regular-season success

This is an article from the Sept. 4, 2006 issue

NEARLY EVERYONEsays that preseason football stats mean nothing. Take a look at the rushingleaders from the 2005 preseason, however, and you'll see some players who wenton to become regular-season starters--or stars. (Players are listed with their'05 teams.) This doesn't mean you should go out of your way to draft '06preseason leaders in the early rounds, but some definitely are worth a laterpick, especially in keeper leagues.

 

2005 PRESEASON RUSHING LEADERSPRESEASON YARDSREGULAR-SEASON YARDS
CHESTER TAYLOR Ravens270487
LARRY JOHNSON Chiefs2541,750
ADRIAN PETERSON Bears233391
MICHAEL TURNER Chargers222335
STEVEN JACKSON Rams2151,046
MIKE ANDERSON Broncos2101,014
VERNAND MORENCY Texans209184
THOMAS JONES Bears1941,335
JULIUS JONES Cowboys193993
RON DAYNE Broncos187270


SIEVES AND STONEWALLS
In 2005 NFL defenses allowed 166 100-yard receiving games, 138 100-yard rushinggames and 64 300-yard passing games. Use the chart below to help you set yourlineup accordingly early in the season.

DEFENSE100-YD RUSH.100-YD REC.300-YD PASS.TOTAL ALLOWED
49ERS512724
GIANTS69419
PATRIOTS69419
RAMS88218
TEXANS105116
BENGALS56415
EAGLES75315
FALCONS86115
SEAHAWKS19515
BILLS66214
LIONS75214
BRONCOS28212
TITANS84012
BROWNS73111
COWBOYS46111
CHIEFS16411
VIKINGS26311
PACKERS54110
JAGUARS35210
REDSKINS36110
CARDINALS4509
PANTHERS3429
RAIDERS3429
RAVENS4318
CHARGERS1438
BEARS3317
DOLPHINS2417
JETS6107
BUCS2417
SAINTS3216
COLTS2215
STEELERS1214

 

DIGITALPROJECTION

Playing theFutures Game
PROTRADE.com takes fantasy rankings to the next level by incorporatingprojected statistics. Here are PROTRADE's top 10 players at each skillposition.

              ProjectedPassingProjected Rushing
QUARTERBACKSAtt.Comp.Yds.TDsINTsRush.Yds.TDs
1 - PEYTON MANNING Colts5183484,215301442921
2 - TOM BRADY Patriots5533514,3002716371271
3 - DONOVAN MCNABB Eagles5163133,8542514592393
4 - CARSON PALMER Bengals4853173,894281233691
5 - MICHAEL VICK Falcons4372472,9751712975274
6 - MATT HASSELBECK Seahawks5183313,6152314361261
7 - ELI MANNING Giants5402973,784231629881
8 - MARC BULGER Rams4913093,7622115341241
9 - JAKE PLUMMER Broncos4893013,3572113561882
10 - DREW BREES Saints4512873,4672113431192


            ProjectedRushing            Projected Receiving
RUNNING BACKSAtt.Yds.TDsAtt.Yds.TDs
1 - LARRY JOHNSON Chiefs3601,66218383361
2 - LADAINIAN TOMLINSON Chargers3391,54414655242
3 - SHAUN ALEXANDER Seahawks3421,61615251771
4 - TIKI BARBER Giants3231,4369524381
5 - LAMONT JORDAN Raiders3031,2589705492
6 - STEVEN JACKSON Rams3001,24210534082
7 - EDGERRIN JAMES Cardinals3031,2329534041
8 - WILLIS MCGAHEE Bills3281,34910322481
9 - REUBEN DROUGHNS Browns3071,3618433471
10 - CADILLAC WILLIAMS Buccaneers3001,2519422921

 

            ProjectedReceiving           Projected Rushing
WIDE RECEIVERSAtt.Yds.TDsAtt.Yds.TDs
1 - CHAD JOHNSON Bengals981,311156360
2 - TERRELL OWENS Cowboys911,278143150
3 - TORRY HOLT Rams1001,333132120
4 - DONALD DRIVER Packers941,285106360
5 - CHRIS CHAMBERS Dolphins991,371911640
6 - STEVE SMITH Panthers921,29193200
7 - MARVIN HARRISON Colts861,12212000
8 - LARRY FITZGERALD Cardinals851,145109550
9 - RANDY MOSS Raiders851,2009000
10 - ANQUAN BOLDIN Cardinals901,19296370


THERE'S A method to this madness. In order to help its members buy and sellplayers, PROTRADE.com, a website that treats sports like the stock market, usesan advanced mathematical method to project the production of each NFL playerlisted on its site. PROTRADE employs depth charts, historical and situationalstatistics and a regression analysis involving more than 100 quantitativevariables to answer two questions: 1) How many attempts--passes, carries,receptions etc.--will the player likely get in 2006, and 2) How will he performon a per-attempt basis? After adjusting the expected usage for schedule,PROTRADE then projects the approximate numbers each player is likely to put upin the '06 season. Rankings are determined by weighting certain statistics moreheavily depending on the position.

       Projected
TIGHT ENDSRec.Yds.TDs
1 - ANTONIO GATES Chargers799689
2 - TONY GONZALEZ Chiefs758877
3 - TODD HEAP Ravens717678
4 - JEREMY SHOCKEY Giants718476
5 - ALGE CRUMPLER Falcons647817
6 - L.J. SMITH Eagles647207
7 - JASON WITTEN Cowboys576857
8 - RANDY MCMICHAEL Dolphins696936
9 - CHRIS COOLEY Redskins647095
10 - BEN TROUPE Titans565616


EXPANDED PROJECTIONS
Don't see your favorite player listed above? For more of PROTRADE.com'sprojections and a detailed explanation of its methodology, go toSI.com/fantasy.

TELLINGNUMBERS

220
RUSHING YARDS for Giants running back Tiki Barber against the Chiefs last Dec.17, the most rushing yards for any player in a game last season. Barber cleared200 yards three times in '05, the first back since Earl Campbell (four) in 1980to do so that many times.

238
RECEIVING YARDS for Dolphins receiver Chris Chambers against the Bills lastDec. 4, the most receiving yards for any player in a game last season and thehighest total since 2002.

442
PASSING YARDS for Rams quarterback MARC BULGER against the Giants last Oct. 2,the only time a QB surpassed 400 yards in 2005.

PHOTOG. NEWMAN LOWRANCE/WIREIMAGE.COM (BULGER)PHOTODAMIAN STROHMEYER (JONES)PHOTOPETER READ MILLER (PLUMMER)PHOTOBOB ROSATO (SMITH)