No Safety in Numbers

This week's touts include some stat lines to believe in, and others you should ignore
October 26, 2008

MATT RYAN
Falcons, QB
After his 301-yard game against Chicago two weeks ago, the rookie headed into a bye week, which kept him from being picked up by as many teams as he should have been. Get him if you can, because Ryan (above) should get a fantasy start most weeks. With targets Roddy White, Harry Douglas and Michael Jenkins, he's throwing to Atlanta's most reliable receiving trio in years, and his upcoming schedule includes several soft defenses.

NATE WASHINGTON
Steelers, WR
Over the last two games Washington has become Ben Roethlisberger's favorite deep threat: He caught a 48-yard score against the Jags and a 50-yarder against Cincinnati. Pittsburgh's next game is against the Giants, and while you'd normally want to avoid their pass rush, Big Ben is used to putting up numbers while being harassed.

JOSH MORGAN
49ers, WR
The rookie from Virginia Tech had his best game against the Giants on Sunday, with five catches for 86 yards and his first NFL score. Expect coordinator Mike Martz to begin including Morgan in his play calls more often, beginning this week against the vulnerable Seahawks secondary.

CALVIN JOHNSON
Lions, WR
With two catches for 154 yards and a TD against the Texans last week, Johnson (above) put together the most misleading big game of the season. The first grab was on a Hail Mary at the end of the first half. The second was a Dan Orlovsky heave with Johnson going against very beatable cornerback DeMarcus Faggins. Don't expect Orlovsky and the checked-out Lions to keep Johnson among the elite receivers.

ROY WILLIAMS
Cowboys, WR
The trade that sent Williams from Detroit to Dallas won't help his value much. Felix Jones's hamstring, T.O.'s temper and especially Tony Romo's broken pinkie have unhinged the Cowboys' offense; Williams didn't have a catch on Sunday. With the formidable defenses of the Bucs, Giants and Redskins up next, it's time to shop him.

MEWELDE MOORE
Steelers, RB
The third-down back came through with 219 rushing yards and three TDs in two weeks as an emergency starter. But don't go for the knee-jerk pickup: With regular starter Willie Parker expected back this week against the Giants, Moore should serve only as a fantasy insurance policy.

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PHOTOTOM DIPACE (RYAN) PHOTODOMENIC CENTOFANTI/GETTY IMAGES (JOHNSON)

HOLE YARDS PAR R1 R2 R3 R4
OUT
HOLE YARDS PAR R1 R2 R3 R4
IN
Eagle (-2)
Birdie (-1)
Bogey (+1)
Double Bogey (+2)