Enemy Lines

A rival scout sizes up the PADRES

They know what they are. They'll try to get ahead early and hand it off to the bullpen to close it out. Score five runs on them and they're cooked.... They've got guys who are hitting their stride and could take the next step if they stay healthy, but they're not a playoff team, because they're still missing regular power in the middle of the order. CARLOS QUENTIN could be it, but you can't expect him to stay healthy.... YONDER ALONSO is nothing more than a doubles hitter, and he looks heavy—he's barely an average fielder at first base, doesn't run well.... EVERTH CABRERA is one of the most underrated players in the game. He's improved his plate discipline, and he'll steal 50 bases. I don't think coming back from a PED suspension is going to change his game. He's not a power guy, and from a young age he's shown the same tools he has today.... JEDD GYORKO reminds me of Dan Uggla but better. He's potentially a 30 home run hitter.... They have a chance to have a very good rotation. ANDREW CASHNER reminds me of Kevin Brown: determined to throw strikes, efficient. I've seen Cashner throw 100 mph, but he doesn't need to.... JOSH JOHNSON will begin on the DL, but he looked good before his flexor injury. Last year he was opening up too soon; when he stays closed, over the rubber, he is really tough—his slider looks exactly like his fastball.... As a fly ball pitcher IAN KENNEDY is tailor-made for that ballpark; he did well in a hitter's park in Arizona, so this should be a great spot for him. The bullpen will be really good, as you'd expect from a Bud Black team.

The Lineup

2014 Projected Statistics and Run Totals by ROTOWIRE.COM

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PROJECTED RUNS SCORED

500

PADRES 641

NL AVERAGE 667

PROJECTED RUNS ALLOWED

500

PADRES 651

NL AVERAGE 677

Modest Proposal

While the hitter-friendly changes to the dimensions of Petco Park last year helped JEDD GYORKO (23 homers) and WILL VENABLE (22), they were a disaster for closer HUSTON STREET. He allowed an unthinkable 12 homers in 56 2/3 innings on the way to the worst season of his career. Street, who works at 88--89 mph and relies on movement and location rather than velocity, is a terrible fit for the ballpark's new alignment. He has always been a fly ball pitcher, and with his velocity at a career low he can't change speeds effectively. He doesn't have the tools to be an effective high-leverage reliever. Fortunately, the Padres signed JOAQUIN BENOIT; the former Tigers closer works at 93--94 mph, giving him good separation from his 84-mph changeup. He's a fly ball pitcher as well, but with better stuff he's less likely to give up the long ball. Benoit should be San Diego's No. 1 reliever, while Street should be used when a long ball wouldn't be quite so damaging.

PHOTOCHARLES LECLAIRE/USA TODAY SPORTS (HEADLEY)Chase Headley PHOTOROBERT BECK/SPORTS ILLUSTRATED (QUENTIN)Carlos Quentin TWO CHARTS PHOTO

HOLE YARDS PAR R1 R2 R3 R4
OUT
HOLE YARDS PAR R1 R2 R3 R4
IN
Eagle (-2)
Birdie (-1)
Bogey (+1)
Double Bogey (+2)