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Best Year Ever

Aug. 24, 2015
Aug. 24, 2015

Table of Contents
Aug. 24, 2015

INBOX
JOHN URSCHEL
BRIAN CASHMAN
  • Since being promoted at 30, the Yankees' GM has thrived for nearly two decades in the cauldron of the Bronx. Whether or not he earns a fifth ring this fall, he's already one of the most iconic—and most fearless—figures in franchise history

  • BY SHUNNING BIG TRADES THAT WOULD COST TOP PROSPECTS, CASHMAN HOPES TO GET BACK TO WHERE HE STARTED

POINT AFTER
Departments

Best Year Ever

Triple Crowns, Grand Slams and near-perfect seasons: 2015 is the year sports fans dream of and oddsmakers can't predict

ON THAT FIRST Sunday in February we should have known something special was brewing. When Super Bowl XLIX was decided on a last-second goal line interception—the Patriots had just a 15.6% chance of winning before that ill-fated play—it prefigured a sports year that would make a mockery of the odds.

This is an article from the Aug. 24, 2015 issue

By early April, Kentucky headed to the Final Four seeking to become the first team to go undefeated since 1976. The Cats' run at perfection proved to be a tease. But on the first Saturday in June, American Pharoah won the Belmont and, with it, the Triple Crown, the first horse to do so since 1978.

Five Saturdays later, Serena Williams won the Wimbledon women's singles title, her fourth straight major, and she heads into next month's U.S. Open on the threshold of a true Grand Slam, a feat no player has reeled off since 1988.

Then there was Jordan Spieth. With victories in the Masters and U.S. Open, a fourth at the British Open and a second at the PGA, the 22-year-old posted the all-time lowest cumulative score in a season's majors (-54) and rose to No. 1.

What are the chances of these things happening individually? What about in the same year? Statistician Ed Feng quantified the likelihood—or lack thereof.

View this article in the original magazine

1 in 522,675

COMBINED ODDS OF THE FOUR ITEMS BELOW AND SPIETH WINNING TWO OF FOUR MAJORS IN THE SAME YEAR ( .000191% )

1 in 3.5

US TO WIN WOMEN'S WORLD CUP ( 28.6% )

1 in 9.9

AMERICAN PHAROAH TO WIN THE TRIPLE CROWN BY MARKET ODDS BEFORE EACH RACE ( 10.1% )

1 in 17.7

KENTUCKY TO GO 38--0 LAST SEASON ( 5.7% )

1 in 70.4

SERENA WILLIAMS TO WIN GRAND SLAM BY MARKET ODDS BEFORE EACH TOURNEY ( 1.4% )

1 in 3,118.5

JORDAN SPIETH TO WIN GRAND SLAM BY MARKET ODDS BEFORE EACH TOURNEY ( .03% )

MAXIMUM NUMBER OF MAJOR COMPETITIONS WON BY ONE ATHLETE

(YEARLY)

[The following text appears within a chart. Please see hardcopy or PDF for actual chart.]

MEN'S GOLF

1

2

Jack Nicklaus

3 Tiger Woods

2 Jordan Spieth

WOMEN'S TENNIS

3

1

2

3

4 Margaret Court

3

3

4 Steffi Graf

3

3

3

3 Serena Williams 3

HORSE RACING

1

2

3 Secretariat

3 Seattle Slew

Affirmed

3 American Pharoah

1965

1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

Best year ever? To uncover the best date in sports see page 60.

Baseball

A First

14

Extra Mustard

15

Edge

Landon Cassill

16

Faces in the Crowd

18

Dan Patrick

Randy Johnson

19

The Case for

No NFL in L.A.

20

PHOTOERIC SCHWEIKARDT FOR SPORTS ILLUSTRATED (NICKLAUS)PHOTOPL GOULD/IMAGES PRESS/GETTY IMAGES (GRAF)PHOTOJOHN BIEVER FOR SPORTS ILLUSTRATED (WOODS)PHOTOHEINZ KLUETMEIER FOR SPORTS ILLUSTRATED (AMERICAN PHAROAH)PHOTOERICK W. RASCO FOR SPORTS ILLUSTRATED (WILLIAMS)PHOTORICHARD HEATHCOTE/GETTY IMAGES (SPIETH)ILLUSTRATIONIllustration by NICOLAS RAPPFOUR ILLUSTRATIONSCHART