Would the Atlanta Hawks Be Better Off In The Long Term Losing In The Play-In Rather Than Making The Playoffs?

Tomorrow will be do or die for the Atlanta Hawks this season. Atlanta will travel up to Chicago to face the Bulls in the NBA play-in tournament and with a win, the Hawks will move on to face the loser of Philadelphia and Miami, the earlier play-in game. The Hawks will have to win two games to try and keep their season going into the playoffs with a first-round matchup with the Boston Celtics. 

While every team will tell you that they want to make the playoffs and try to make a run, sometimes it is not the best move for their franchise. Atlanta faces a similar question heading into this year's play-in tournament. 

After Quin Snyder took over as head coach and almost took the series against the Boston Celtics last season to seven games, there was hope that the Hawks could get out of the play-in tournament and be a top-six or higher seed for this season. Snyder would get the most out of the Trae Young-Dejounte Murray pairing, Jalen Johnson would break out and be a crucial part of the team, and Atlanta would be one of the deepest teams in the East. That was the hope anyway. 

Not much of that happened, some due to injury, but partly due to this being exposed as a deeply flawed roster. 

Johnson has been one of the most improved players in the NBA and has given the Hawks fanbase reason for excitement, but he is still injured and won't be reevaluated for a few weeks, possibly meaning his season is over. The Young and Murray pairing has not worked even when Young has been healthy and injuries have robbed Atlanta of their depth and time to play together this season. Not only is Johnson not able to play in the play-in tournament, but Onyeka Okongwu is out as well. Saddiq Bey suffered a season-ending injury last month, and De'Andre Hunter has had to miss several games, as have AJ Griffin and Kobe Bufkin. Injuries have played an unfortunate part of the season for Atlanta, but this team did not appear to be heading in the right direction anyway. 

It seemed as though Atlanta was poised to make moves at the trade deadline, but they stood pat. They might not take that same course of action during the summer. 

So the question is, do the Hawks benefit from making the playoffs and facing an almost certain loss vs Boston or is it better that they lose in the play-in, maintain their draft position, and see what the NBA Draft Lottery brings? Currently, the Hawks would have a 13.9% chance of landing a top-four pick and a 3% chance of landing the No. 1 overall pick. If the lottery does not break their way, Atlanta would either pick 10th or possibly slide down a few spots

The other thing to consider is that this NBA Draft is not considered to be very good. Even if the Hawks had good lottery luck, there is not a prospect near the caliber of Victor Wembanyama, Scoot Henderson, Brandon Miller, or even the Thompson twins. If the Hawks win both play-in games, their pick will slide a few spots to 15. In most drafts, that would mean a huge difference, but in a draft that nobody seems excited about, there might not be a huge difference for Atlanta. 

I think both sides have merit. While the Hawks did give the Celtics a much more competitive series than anyone could have imagined last year, Boston is a much better team than they were last year. The Celtics finished with one of the highest net ratings in NBA history and appear to be on a path toward making the NBA Finals at a minimum. Atlanta would not stand much of a chance against Boston if they were healthy, but they will be missing Jalen Johnson, Onyeka Okongwu, and Saddiq Bey for the series. Anything is possible in sports, but it would arguably be the biggest upset in NBA history if the Hawks found a way to beat Boston. It would likely be a quick series and would eliminate even a small chance for the Hawks to move up in the draft. 

Then again, this draft is weak and Atlanta might not be as hurt by not being in the lottery as most years. Atlanta could see if they can stretch the series against Boston long enough for Johnson to come back and see if they can pull the upset. It is a longshot, but the Miami Heat had to play in two play-in games last season and were the No. 8 seed going into the playoffs. They had an incredible run to the NBA Finals, but it is not a common occurrence. In fact, the No. 8 seed has only won six times (1994, 1999, 2007, 2011, 2012, and 2023), with four of those six times coming in the seven-game series era for the first round. In most cases, teams with a net rating as high as Boston fly the NBA playoffs and win the championship. It would be surprising if the Hawks even won a game against Boston. Still, the lottery could break in a way that the Hawks move down from 10th, and there not be a big difference in where they would have picked if they had made the playoffs. The NBA Draft lottery can be cruel in that respect. 

I think one team to look at is the Dallas Mavericks, who were in somewhat similar position last year. They did not want to make the NBA play-in tournament and risk losing a top ten pick the New York Knicks. Dallas ended up resting players down the stretch and not making the play-in. They would be awarded the 10th pick and ended up picking Duke center Dereck Lively II, who has been a crucial part of their team. Now, the Hawks are in the play-in and Dallas was not last year, but the point is that the Mavericks thought that missing the play-in and the playoffs was worth it because they did not have a team capable of making a run and were willing to take their chances of making the lottery. Atlanta is in a similar position, though not directly identical.

It is not an easy thing to admit, but the Hawks could benefit from being in the lottery and trying to land a higher draft pick. This summer will give them another opportunity to retool their roster for the future and compete for higher things than another play-in spot. Only time will tell.