Florida vs. South Carolina: Preview, Prediction, Odds, Where to Watch and More

Everything you need to know before the Gators' top 25 clash with the Gamecocks in Columbia, S.C., on Saturday.

Author:
Brandon Carroll
Publish date:
Mar 2, 2024 8:30 AM EST

In this story:

Photo: Florida center Micah Handlogten; Credit: Zach Goodall

The Florida Gators versus the South Carolina Gamecocks is a late-season bout of unexpected importance.

Despite being projected to finish eighth and 14th, respectively, in the SEC this preseason, both Florida and South Carolina are vying to secure a spot in the top four in the remaining three contests of the regular season. The victor on Saturday will position itself to control its own destiny. Meanwhile, the loser will slip to the outside looking in on a coveted double-bye in SEC Tournament play.

You can find everything you need to know before tip-off between the two SEC foes below, including an in-depth rundown of Florida's opponent, game prediction and more.

No. 24 Florida Gators (20-8, 10-5 SEC) vs. No. 18 South Carolina Gamecocks (23-5, 11-4 SEC)

Where: Colonial Life Arena, Columbia, S.C.

When: Saturday, March 2 at noon ET

Watch: ESPN & SEC Network | fuboTV (start your free trial)

Radio: Gator Sports Network from LEARFIELD | FloridaGators.com | SiriusXM 210 or 192 & SXM App

Odds: The Gators are 2.5-point underdogs to the Gamecocks on Saturday, according to SI Sportsbook. The over/under for the contest is set at 144.5 points.

Series history: Florida leads the all-time series against South Carolina, 48-28, including a 24-15 record on the road. In their last meeting on Jan. 25, 2023, the Gators cruised to a 21-point home victory over the Gamecocks, 81-60.

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The rundown

The Gators have a valuable opportunity on Saturday against a fellow contender in the Gamecocks for a top-four finish and, therefore, a double-bye in the conference tournament, in the SEC standings.

Following Florida's win over Missouri on Wednesday, head coach Todd Golden praised the job Lamont Paris has done in his second year at South Carolina and offered an early synopsis of the team UF will face in the third-to-final game on the regular season slate.

Namely, he pointed out the contrast in schemes he and Paris have employed en route to similarly successful year two campaigns.

"They have an identity," Golden stated. "They come out, they're physical, they guard you, they make you earn everything offensively. And then on the other end, they play really well together. I feel like they're very connected offensively. There's no selfishness. They don't take a lot of bad shots. They move the ball really well and they grind you out."

The identity is the opposite of the Gators' up-tempo, push-the-pace approach.

South Carolina has played in just three games with more than 70 combined possessions this season. Conversely, Florida has just six contests with less than 70.

In Golden's words, it's a "clash of styles" between two teams ranked No. 354 and No. 30 out of 362 total teams in adjusted tempo in 2023-24.

South Carolina predicates itself on a balanced, half-court-oriented philosophy. On offense, the Gamecocks aim to get set on each possession and wear opposing defenses down through various set actions. It's paid dividends for the unit to post the No. 55 most efficient offense, per KenPom, so far this season.

Leaning heavily on its ball security and consistent ball movement, SCAR has accounted for 15.6 assists per game (45th). Senior guard Ta'Lon Cooper has led the Cocks' deliberate facilitation efforts, accounting for 4.4 assists per outing on the year.

The improved play of fellow guard Meechie Johnson in his final season of collegiate eligibility — averaging a team-high 13.8 points to pair with 4.3 boards and three assists per game — has propelled the Cocks to maintain its impressive non-conference form throughout league play. Wofford transfer BJ Mack has contributed 13.6 points, 4.8 rebounds and 1.3 assists from the five to complement Johnson.

But, while the trio has led the unit for most of the year, an emerging star of Paris' operation has taken center stage in the closing stretch: true freshman forward Collin Murray-Boyles.

"They have a great freshman, Murray-Boyles, who's playing his butt off," Golden said on Wednesday. "One of the better young guys in the league."

He was the only player the Florida coach referenced by name, a testament to the frosh's impact in SCAR's impressive year two surge after being picked to finish dead-last in the conference this preseason.

Since the start of February, particularly, the Columbia, S.C., native has fully emerged from his shell to average a team-leading 16.4 points and 7.4 rebounds per game over the last seven games. Florida's fours Tyrese Samuel and Thomas Haugh will expectedly take on the challenge of limiting Murray-Boyles' impact, a feat easier said than done for a player of his efficiency.

He's shooting 60% from the field on the year.

One notable weakness in the Gamecocks attack, though, is the susceptibility to decent rim protection as they push the rock toward the cup. They're No. 359 in block percentage offensively, the fourth-worst mark in the country.

Against Florida, a team that courts the 10th-tallest roster in college basketball, ranks No. 40 in defensive block percentage and accounts for 5.3 blocks per game on average, that lapse has the potential to become an essential factor. This isn't only due to the blocks themselves but also the opportunity for a rapid counterattack each swat presents for UF.

Defensively, South Carolina remains technically sound, operating a conservative style with little risks taken in attempts to generate turnovers, but closes out well on shots at all three levels to sit No. 33 overall in effective field goal percentage allowed this year — including a 46.1% mark for the opposition on two-point shots.

The Gamecocks are accustomed to playing clean, uninterrupted basketball. They want it that way. Slow and controlled. The Gators, meanwhile, will want to elicit some organized chaos into the contest. Fast and high-octane.

As a result, whichever team dictates pace will put itself in a favorable spot to come away victorious in the heavyweight battle.

"If we can do a good job pushing tempo and keeping pace up, I think that would benefit us," Golden said. "If we get stuck in halfcourt in a grind-it-out game, I think that's going to benefit them."

Ultimately, this contest is uber-important for both programs. Expect the energy to reflect such on Saturday at noon in Columbia.

"Obviously, whoever wins this, they'll probably give themselves the advantage against the other opponent in terms of seeding down the stretch."

Brandon's Prediction (17-5): Florida 80, South Carolina 78

Florida’s lined up a fair share of difficult games for me to pick throughout the year. This one is far and away the most difficult.

South Carolina continues to prove naysayers wrong with its impressive dedication and execution of Paris’ system. Building a 23-5 record to this point, there aren’t many teams who have outperformed expectations the way SCAR has this season.

The Gators have garnered more success than initially anticipated, though, and have begun to find their stride to overcome some early-season woes on the road. A win over Kentucky in Lexington and near-upset of Alabama in Tuscaloosa stick out.

Ultimately, this contest could go either way. And with the Gamecocks having the home-court advantage on their side, it’s hard to pick against them.

But, the Gators have been on the doorstep of another major road win against a highly regarded opponent.

This is the last time they’ll get that opportunity this year. I think they take advantage of it, producing another lopsided victory on the glass behind the prowess of 7-footer Micah Handlogten — utilizing the height and length advantage they hold over an athletic yet smaller Cocks frontcourt — and post 15+ fastbreak points to mitigate the damage that can be caused by playing on the road in the SEC.

That style benefits the Gators in the long run.

So, I’m picking Florida to squeeze by South Carolina, 80-78, in a one-to-two possession battle that runs until the final buzzer.

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