Michigan State Football's 2024 Expected Win Total Released
Excitement is building in East Lansing as new head coach Jonathan Smith begins his rebuild of a proud Michigan State football program. On the job for roughly two and a half month, Smith and his coaching staff brought in multiple instant-impact transfers and have started to lay the foundation for Smith's vision of Spartan football.
However, sportsbooks in Las Vegas have modest expectations for Michigan State in Year 1 under Smith. Earlier this week, FanDuel Sportsbook released the first Big Ten football preseason win totals for the 2024 season, and the Spartans rank in the bottom half of the league's new 18-team membership.
With spring practice and the spring transfer portal window still to come, FanDuel projects 5.5 wins for MSU in 2024. This ties the Spartans for the second-lowest win total in the Big Ten alongside Illinois, Northwestern and Indiana, and ahead of only Minnesota (4.5) and Purdue (4.5).
This number is likely to disappoint MSU fans. After all, the Spartans were also projected to win 5.5 games in 2023, when they finished at 4-8. While Michigan State's hire of Smith is widely regarded as one of the better coaching hires this offseason, it did take the head coach until his fourth year at Oregon State to produce a winning record. Smith is expected to work faster in East Lansing given accessibility to the transfer portal, but there are portions of the Spartans' roster that will need time to fully develop (see: offensive line).
Betting on win totals is a tricky business. The Vegas sportsbooks are good at what they do, but no projection is perfect. Heading into 2021, sportsbooks set Michigan State's win total at just four, and the Spartans went 11-2 and won the Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl on the back of Kenneth Walker III. In 2022, MSU's projected win total was set at 7.5, and the Spartans won just five games.
Michigan State's 2024 schedule features a lot of feast or famine. On one hand, the Spartans will play three of the four lowest-rated Big Ten teams in terms of win totals: Purdue (home), Indiana (home) and Illinois (road). MSU will also travel to Boston College (4.5), and will be favored in home games against Florida Atlantic and Prairie View A&M.
On the other hand, Michigan State will also play both Big Ten schools with the highest expected win totals, Ohio State (10.5) and Oregon (10.5), as well as three-time defending Big Ten champion Michigan (9.5). Throw in a couple tough games against Maryland (7.5) and Iowa (7.5), and it's fair to see why FanDuel is taking a modest approach to Spartan success this fall.
Big Ten Football 2024 Expected Win Total (FanDuel)
- Ohio State Buckeyes —10.5
- Oregon Ducks — 10.5
- Michigan Wolverines — 9.5
- Penn State Nittany Lions — 9.5
- USC Trojans — 7.5
- Washington Huskies — 7.5
- Nebraska Cornhuskers — 7.5
- Iowa Hawkeyes — 7.5
- Maryland Terrapins — 7.5
- Wisconsin Badgers — 6.5
- Rutgers Scarlet Knights — 6.5
- Michigan State Spartans — 5.5
- Northwestern Wildcats — 5.5
- Illinois Fighting Illini — 5.5
- UCLA Bruins — 5.5
- Indiana Hoosiers — 5.5
- Purdue Boilermakers — 4.5
- Minnesota Golden Gophers — 4.5
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