Mavs Gear Up for Crucial Showdown Against Top-Seeded Nuggets
DALLAS — As the Dallas Mavericks prepare for a pivotal encounter with the Denver Nuggets this Sunday, the stakes couldn't be higher. After a 126-119 loss against the Oklahoma City Thunder ended their four-game winning streak, the Mavs are determined to bounce back and improve their standing from eighth in the Western Conference to avoid the play-in tournament.
With a 38-29 record, the Mavs face a formidable opponent in the Denver Nuggets. Nikola Jokic's squad has been on a tear since the All-Star break, amassing an 11-1 record and tied with the Thunder for the best record in the Western Conference as they have both gone 47-20 record. The upcoming game is not just another fixture; it's a chance for Dallas to make a statement against the league's best.
“Unselfish ballclub. That’s all that needs to be said," Mavs wing Tim Hardaway Jr. said about the Nuggets. "They’re unselfish. They play the right way. They defend. It’s all about winning."
Isaiah J. Downing-USA TODAY Sports
The challenge ahead is steep. In their last three encounters, the Mavs have struggled against the Nuggets, with the most recent meeting on December 18 ending in a 130-104 defeat. That game saw Jamal Murray score 22 points, followed by Denver's starters being allowed to rest in the fourth quarter. Dallas has gone 1-4 in five previous meetings against Jokic's squad.
Despite this, the Mavs are not without their strengths and strategies. The team's resilience will be tested, especially as they navigate the health of Luka Doncic, Dante Exum, and Josh Green. Doncic missed Thursday's game due to a sore left hamstring but could come back against Denver following a clean MRI. However, he is listed as questionable on the injury report. Green has already been ruled out after a right ankle sprain, while Exum is questionable as he deals with a right plantar fascia sprain.
The Mavs' resolve is evident in their performances, particularly from Kyrie Irving, who notched 36 points and a season-high 12 assists in the loss to Oklahoma City. However, Dallas has been plagued by turnovers, with 19 contributing to their recent defeat.
“I thought we handled the atmosphere. This is a great atmosphere. Just the live-ball turnovers," Mavs coach Jason Kidd said. "Playing without Luka, we gave ourselves a chance. Everybody in that locker room should be proud of themselves. We just came up short.”
The Nuggets continued their dominant performance with a 117-106 victory over the San Antonio Spurs, with Nikola Jokic and Murray contributing significantly. This win underscores the team's excellent form since the break.
"We've been on a roll," Nuggets forward Christian Braun said. "Our second unit has been doing a really good job for the most part and playing really well since the All-Star break. That's what we've got to do. We want to give (Jokic and Murray) a chance to rest."
Jokic's performance this season has been stellar, with averages of 26.0 points, 12.2 rebounds, and 9.1 assists. The Nuggets, reigning champions, are intent on clinching the top seed in the Western Conference playoffs for the consecutive year.
"If we can get (the No. 1 seed), sure, we're going to take it," Nuggets coach Michael Malone said. "We're not going to shy away from that. It was very effective for us last year, having home court throughout the entirety of the playoffs."
Both teams' execution could significantly influence the outcome of this game in 4-on-3 situations, considering how frequently both teams double the opposition's top players, Doncic and Jokic. The Nuggets have a significant continuity in picking apart these coverages, making it challenging for Dallas. Despite this effort, Doncic has averaged 32.8 points, 9.3 assists, and 8.8 rebounds in direct matchups against Jokic in four games played over the last two seasons.
The Nuggets usually blitz Doncic when the Mavs put Jokic into ball-screening actions. No team has used such an approach more against Doncic than Denver in recent years, making short-roll execution vital. Given the Nuggets' emphasis on blitzing Doncic, the Mavs will likely expect Irving to be aggressive early and often. He's only played once against Denver as a member of the Mavs, finishing with 22 points, seven assists, and four steals on November 3 in a 125-114 loss.
The Mavs double Jokic in the post and on ISOs more than any other team, making extra efforts when making defensive rotations and closeouts vital—both areas the Mavs have sorely struggled in. Despite this approach, the two-time NBA MVP has averaged 18.5 points, 11.0 rebounds, and 8.5 assists over his last four games against Doncic's squad.
Denver gets out in transition very quickly, often with Jokic making throw-ahead passes or just generally quick pushes on the break, which Dallas has been poor at containing lately. Dallas has tried guarding Jokic with a four to have a roaming rim protector, but this got picked apart.
Denver tends to try to funnel the ball to the corners when facing the Mavs, which is an especially concerning outcome for Dallas, given the team's poor shooting capabilities from those shooting zones. With P.J. Washington being among the NBA's worst in this area, the Mavs are shooting 35.4 percent from the corners since the break, ranking 24th in the NBA during this span despite having elite playmaking from Doncic.
Meanwhile, the Nuggets have shot highly efficiently against the Mavs in recent matchups but have done a lot of damage in the paint, often overwhelming Dallas with Jokic in the middle of the floor and Aaron Gordon and Michael Porter Jr. as bigger wings. Physicality will also play a vital role, especially with how NBA officials have called fewer contact fouls since the NBA All-Star break, making it harder for undersized personnel to hold their own.
In perspective, Gordon has averaged 22.0 points per game over his last three games against Dallas, leading Denver in scoring. Porter isn't far behind Jokic's 18.5 points per game, given he stacks up at scoring 18.0 on average against Dallas during this same span. Gordon and Porter have remained instrumental in their team shooting 186-342 (54.4 percent) and averaging 31.5 assists per game combined over the previous four meetings involving these teams. Again, they can often exploit the Mavs' approach against Jokic. This is despite Murray not being at his regular form, shooting 37.5 percent from the floor in these games, averaging 17.0 points.
One of Denver's advantages is its shooting prowess, which has been elevated against the Mavs — shooting a staggering 51-119 (42.9 percent) in their last four matchups. Porter, (11-21 for 52.4 percent)), Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (8-16 for 50 percent), Gordon (6-11 for 54.5 percent), and Murray (6-15 for 40 percent) have each punished Dallas for how the team hasn't gotten back in transition and how the focus has been to limit Jokic by getting the ball out of his hands.
The production of Daniel Gafford and Dereck Lively II will be essential for the Mavs, not just because of matching up against Jokic but to serve as release valves for Doncic offensively and keep the Nuggets off the boards. Dallas has often played Maxi Kleber in extended minutes and to close games against teams that require a collective effort to get out on shooters and make extra rotations.
Denver has punished Dallas often on the offensive glass in recent matchups, and Lively struggled with foul trouble during the last meeting. If they do not execute well in the paint, it could be a long day for the Mavs, barring unforeseen poor perimeter shooting from the defending NBA champions.
