Betting The Jaguars: Week 12
All lines are from BetMGM
Week 11 Recap
Christian Kirk longest reception: o21.5 yards (-120)❌
Calvin Ridley longest reception: o20.5 yards (-120)✅
Will Levis: o.5 interception (-145)❌
Tyreek Hill: o90.5 receiving yards (-115)✅
Kyler Murray: o238.5 passing yards (-115)❌
Overall Record: 27-24 +5.36 units
This makes the third losing week in a row which is a pain but that’s the nature of gambling. I feel robbed as Christian Kirk had receptions of 20 and 18 yards and the Jaguars dropped two more interceptions but you just keep plugging along. A lot of bad breaks the last few weeks but I know during the hot streak earlier in the season I had breaks go my way. Tyreek hit with zero problems and Kyler came close but fell short. Moving on.
Calvin Ridley longest reception: o22.5 yards (-22.5)
Evan Engram: o4.5 receptions (-135)
Tank Dell: o57.5 receiving yards (-62.5)
I’m going right back to the well with Calvin Ridley’s longest catch prop. It hit for me last week and I don’t see any reason it won’t again this week. The Zay Jones effect certainly seems real mainly because Ridley is now the “moving” piece at receiver sending Zay on the outside. Last week Ridley had two catches that topped 22 yards, caught a 20 yard touchdown, and had a defensive pass interference called on a deep pass. It seems like Ridley is at home in this role with 28 catches for 226 yards and three touchdowns in three games with Zay Jones on the field with him. Thinking back on the time that Jones missed I’m remembering so much usage for Jamal Agnew in that same role with a lot of intermediate to deeper routes too. Ridley has hit this prop now in seven out of ten games and he has hit it in all three with Zay playing as well.
I really like Evan Engram this week. The Texans are 2nd in the league in fantasy points allowed to tight ends with a singular opposing tight end catching more than four passes against in six of their ten games, including four of the last five. Evan Engram’s single low mark for receptions is four. He averages 7.4 targets a game while averaging 5.8 catches a game. Trevor Lawrence has looked to Engram as a reliable target all season and with the numbers and matchup on his side, I love this bet.
Lastly, I'm going back to Tank Dell. I played his receiving yardage prop in week 3 when these two teams played and that one hit for me. He wasn’t so quite known then but his yardage prop was also only 35.5 yards. By now he’s been bumped up to 57.5 yards but I still have confidence in him. He’s played in nine games this year and has hit 56 yards or more in six of those games. The Jaguars will likely be without Tyson Campbell forcing Darious Williams to match up primarily with Nico Collins which is great for Dell. Dell has developed great chemistry with C.J. Stroud and Dell has proven he is a legitimate receiver in the league. This game could potentially decide the AFC South and with how well the Jaguars have been stopping the run I think they air it out this weekend.
Other Bets
Derrick Henry: o67.5 rushing yards (-115)
Rachaad White: o28.5 receiving yards (-110)
Do I want to cheer for Derrick Henry? Of course not. However, there are a few things in play here. The Titans offense desperately needs to get back on track, they have a juicy matchup in the Panthers, and I’m trying to win money. He has fallen short of this prop the last two weeks but he has played some heavy pass funnel defenses in the Buccaneers and the Jaguars. I highly doubt the Panthers blow out the Titans like the Jags did, leaving them to abandon the run. In fact, I think they win this game and they pound Henry all day nursing a lead. The Panthers' defense ranks 29th in both EPA/rush and rushing success rate. They stink against the run and the Titans' bread and butter is on the ground up the gut. I have huge confidence in Henry this week despite Tennessee’s offensive line woes.
Rachaad White had a slow start to the season but over the last month and a half he has seen a huge increase in usage in the passing game. He has hit this prop in four out of his last five games with his most recent game against the 49ers landing at 28 yards. I’m not shocked to find out that as the Bucs have played better football they have utilized White more in through the air. Baker Mayfield is looking for White pretty frequently and White’s ability to make the first guy miss in space has been huge for him. The Colts have only held a running back to under 27 receiving yards three times this year and with White’s increased passing game work this is a no brainer.
