Betting the Jaguars: Week 15 vs. the Ravens
All lines are from BetMGM
Week 14 Recap
Justin Jefferson: o70.5 receiving yards (-135)❌
Courtland Sutton: o57.5 receiving yards (-115) ✅
Bijan Robinson: o95.5 rushing + receiving yards (-115)❌
Overall Record: 34-28 (+6.54 units)
I avoided the Jaguars game this week because of Trevor Lawrence’s status and only played three bets from the rest of the league. The one lean I did give though, given Trevor was playing, was I liked the Jaguars +3 because I thought it would be a low-scoring game and Trevor would keep it close. Well, half of that was right and if Doug would’ve kicked the extra point it would’ve pushed. I am, however, genuinely shocked that the game featured 58 points.
Justin Jefferson got hurt in the second quarter after catching two of three targets for 27 yards. I really think he would’ve hit the bet had he played but injuries are part of betting. Here’s to hoping Jefferson can return to form this season.
Courtland Sutton managed 62 yards to cash the bet despite only catching three passes so I got away with one there.
And finally, Bijan Robinson came close but ended up eight yards shy. After seeing at least 16 carries in his last three games, Bjian received 10 carries and backup Tyler Allgeier had nine. I got Arthur Smith’d. That’s on me to be honest. Week 14 and I thought I had Arthur figured out. Amateur Hour.
Evan Engram: o50.5 receiving yards (-115)
Travis Etienne: o22.5 receiving yards (-115)
Lamar Jackson: o215.5 passing yards (-115)
In essentially two games without Christian Kirk, Evan Engram has easily been the best Jaguars pass catcher. He had 82 yards against the Bengals and followed it up with 95 against the Browns. The Jaguars do a great job of scheming Engram into space quickly allowing him to gain yards after the catch. His average depth of target this year is 4.6 and he also averages 4.7 yards after the catch per reception. Engram has only failed to reach 41 yards twice this season and while I realize his yardage line is 50.5 it shows how good of a baseline he has. He remains Trevor’s most reliable target catching 20 of 21 targets the last two weeks without Kirk so look for double-digit targets again. Given his floor with Kirk on the field is pretty close to this line already I think it is a smash play now that Kirk is out of action.
Travis Etienne continues his solid involvement in the passing game. He has been held under 22.5 receiving yards only four times this season and only twice since week five. In three straight games Etienne has reached both four catches and 30 receiving yards. All three have been competitive games and I expect another this week against the Ravens. As long as the Jaguars make this one close I think Etienne coasts past this one.
I’m not entirely sure why Lamar’s line is so low. I get he rushes a lot but I still think this one is off. The Ravens have played seven one-score games. Lamar has hit this over in six of those games. Easy math considering I think this game stays close. Your concern here comes in the form of a Ravens blowout but the plus side is that the Jaguars have stopped the run well and become a pass funnel defense so if they get blown out it’s unlikely to happen entirely on the ground. The Jaguars have held opposing quarterbacks under 215 yards just three times this season. Yeah, 215 is a low mark because Lamar can run but the Jaguars are 31st in the league giving up 265.2 passing yards per game and they have also given up six 300-yard passing games. I’d be comfortable with this Lamar line against an average pass defense and right now the Jaguars can’t even claim to be that until they prove otherwise.
Other Bets
Matthew Stafford: o267.5 passing yards (-115)
Sam LaPorta: o47.5 receiving yards (-115)
Matt Stafford and Cooper Kupp are both finally back to full health and it shows. The last two games Stafford has faced two insane defenses in the Browns and Ravens (that back-to-back stretch sound familiar?) and he has 279 and 294 yards respectively. With how Stafford and the Rams are currently playing I wouldn’t blame someone for placing this bet on that reasoning alone.
However, they get a juicy passing matchup in the Commanders. They give up the most passing yards in the league and allow a dropback EPA/Play of 0.211 which is also last in the league. If you made that an offensive number, whoever is playing the Commanders would be third in the league in drop back EPA/Play behind only the 49ers and Cowboys. Long story short Stafford is clicking and the Commanders can’t stop anyone.
Sam Laporta is in the middle of one of the greatest rookie tight end seasons ever. He averages 54 yards a game and only has less than 47 yards in four games this year. Weirdly enough his two worst games of the year have been against the Bears, who apparently have his number, so if you throw those out his lowest single game yardage is 36 yards. He does have two games with 47 yards on the dot and his line is 47.5 but given his plus matchup against the Broncos I’m willing to chalk up the 47 yard games as a hit.
The Broncos defense gives up the most fantasy points per game to tight ends. I know I’m going for yardage here and not fantasy points but the point is they are exploited regularly by tight ends. Only four teams have not had tight ends reach this one. The last nugget I like here is that LaPorta is way better at home. Once again removing the Bears game, his lowest home game yardage is 47. Even with his 18 yard home game against the Bears he averages almost 53 yards a game at home. LaPorta averages just over seven targets a game so his involvement has remained steady and he has a great matchup. Like Stafford, the combination of a good player and great matchup are too good to pass up.
