Betting the Jaguars: Week 16 vs. the Buccaneers
All lines are from BetMGM
Week 15 Recap
Evan Engram o50.5 receiving yards -115❌
Travis Etienne o22.5 receiving yards -115✅
Lamar Jackson o215.5 passing yards -115❌
Matthew Stafford o267.5 passing yards -115❌
Sam LaPorta o47.5 receiving yards -115✅
Overall Record: 36-31 (+5.28 units)
The Jaguars were a mess on offense but I’m still surprised Engram didn’t hit. I’m also surprised he only saw six targets. With how he gets utilized, topping 50 yards would be tough on only six targets. Travis Etienne wasn’t great but his 28 receiving yards got the job done and he still has only failed to hit 23 receiving yards four times this year. I’m going to keep attacking his receiving line as long as it stays in the mid to low 20s. And lastly for the Jaguars game Lamar Jackson finished with only 171 passing yards. Another surprising one here because Lamar was fantastic Sunday night and it was only a ten point game at the midway point of the fourth quarter. Just a miss on my part.
Stafford is absolutely dealing right now and thanks to a blowout, he only passed for 258 yards against the Commanders. That was a tough one but I caught a break with Sam LaPorta. I was dead on about him destroying the Broncos but that was more of a sweat than it should’ve been. This game was also a blowout and just shy of the two minute warning Sam LaPorta had 46 receiving yards and two touchdowns. He caught a ten yard touchdown for his third touchdown of the day and it also sealed this bet. Had this game been close I think LaPorta would’ve easily had over 100 yards.
One unit play:
Travis Etienne o23.5 receiving yards -120
Two unit play:
Evan Engram o48.5 receiving yards -120
I mentioned on my podcast this week and above in this article that if the books keep setting Etienne’s receiving line in the mid to low 20s I’m going to keep coming back. His line this week is 23.5 so here we are. Etienne has gone under 23.5 yards only four times the whole season. I’m genuinely shocked this line is still as low as it is. Maybe it’s because he squeaked by with 28 yards last week but I highly doubt the offense is that dysfunctional again even if Trevor Lawrence doesn’t play. I don’t think this game is a blowout in either direction so Etienne should get his usual opportunities in the passing game.
I’m going right back to the well again with Evan Engram and I’m going back with two units. This line has dropped two yards and I think that’s an overreaction to an awful offensive game all around for the Jaguars. His six targets were tied for his second lowest on the year and with Zay Jones now out, I would be extremely shocked if Engram didn’t get 8 targets at a minimum. Tampa Bay has a vulnerable pass funnel defense and they also give up the sixth most fantasy points to tight ends. The last time the Bucs held a tight end (who I consider average or better) under this number was week seven against Kyle Pitts. In the eight games since, only the Titans, Colts, and Panthers have failed to have a tight end hit 49 yards. Engram is far more talented than any tight end those teams have and also gets targeted far more often than most tight ends. The matchup with the Bucs combined with his expected usage make this a smash play worth two units.
Other Bets
James Cook o96.5 rushing + receiving yards -115
DK Metcalf o61.5 receiving yards -115
The Bills are hot at the right time and look like they’re primed to make a legitimate run at the playoffs after finding themselves at 5-7 just a month ago. They’re coming off back to back wins against the Chiefs and the Cowboys and this week they get to face the Chargers. The Chargers defense can’t stop anyone and I mean anyone. They are top seven or higher in fantasy points allowed to every position. Sure, maybe the Chargers get the “just fired our coach” morale booster this week but I still feel solid about the Bills winning handily. If that’s the case it makes sense that James Cook is in for another big day. Cook has hit this prop in five straight games and against the Chargers defense I have a hard time believing he doesn’t get there. The Bills run game only gets stronger when Josh Allen is playing well and he’s playing at a very high level. Even if the Chargers somehow make a game of this, Cook sees an uptick in his passing work in close games so I think you’re safe either way. I have huge confidence in Cook this week.
Since week six (nine games), D.K. Metcalf has failed to hit this prop only three times. In the betting world those are solid odds to start with, however, when you look into it you find his three games under 62 yards were against the 49ers (twice) and the Ravens. He gets the Titans this week who are not good against the pass. They are 30th in drop back EPA/play as a defense and give up the eighth most fantasy points to wide receivers. Metcalf is solid for this prop in any given week if he isn’t playing an absolutely elite defense and this week gets a really nice matchup. Metcalf should cruise here.
