Betting the Jaguars: Week 17 vs. the Panthers
All lines are from BetMGM
Week 16 Recap
One unit play:
Travis Etienne o23.5 receiving yards -120❌
Two unit play:
Evan Engram o48.5 receiving yards -120✅
James Cook o96.5 rushing + receiving yards -115❌
DK Metcalf o61.5 receiving yards -115❌
Overall Record 38-34 +3.78 units
The gap is slipping but we’re still positive. Two weeks to go in the regular season to stay in the green. I definitely have had a handful of bad plays this season but for the most part my misses have been frustratingly close or have been the victims of bad beats. That’s a good sign your process is solid so you just keep going.
Travis Etienne finished with 19 receiving yards. Five yards shy of cashing his prop. This game makes just the fifth game all year Etienne went under 23.5 receiving yards and in a game they trailed all day I’m shocked he didn’t get more dump offs.
Evan Engram was cash. There was no sweat at all here. His massive target volume cancels out his average depth of target and he finished with 10 catches for 95 yards. Engram saved my week. I put two units on this one and it was my only hit of the week.
James Cook was another shocker to me. He had 70 yards against the Chargers and they all came on the ground. Cook has found fairly consistent work in the passing game all season and since the Bills fired Ken Dorsey as offensive coordinator, Cook has seen at least 3 targets and has at least 29 receiving yards in every game. I thought this play had some insurance because Cook could hit this prop in about any game script you draw up so I was really puzzled by him not even getting one target in a close game.
Metcalf felt like a bad beat. He finished with 56 yards and was interfered with on the Seahawks game winning drive on a play where he probably would’ve caught a touchdown on pushing him over his yardage total. He was also the third leading Seahawks receiver in targets and yardage which is not exactly a common occurrence.
Game total over 36.5 -110
Calvin Ridley longest reception over 22.5 yards -120
Bryce Young over 170.5 passing yards -115
I get Trevor Lawrence isn’t starting but 36.5 feels way too low. This isn’t a Big Ten game crying out loud. I also get that the Panthers haven’t lit the world on fire on offense but they’re playing better and they just scored 30 against the Packers. I don’t trust the Jaguars defense to not let an opponent reach the mid-twenties at minimum and I still think they can muster enough on offense to push this one over. Going into this I would’ve guessed this line would be around 40 points so I’ll take the perceived discount.
I’ve played Calvin Ridley’s longest reception prop a few times this year and have found some success. He has a reception of 21 yards or more in 10 games this year and while 21 yards doesn’t get it done here it does show that he is getting the opportunities essentially weekly. I like his longest reception prop this week because, without Lawrence, I just don’t know if I trust consistent, game long production to break a yardage prop. It only takes one here and the bonus is C.J. Beathard likes to throw it downfield. Since the bye week, there are only three games where Ridley hasn’t caught a ball of 21 yards or more and they all came against elite defenses in the 49ers, Browns, and Ravens. I would also think the Jaguars will be looking to capitalize on a few shot plays without Trevor and they don’t exactly have better options at receiver right now to try those with. Look for Calvin to catch a deep one this week.
This feels disgusting and quite frankly it is but 170.5 is an absurdly low number and the Jaguars pass defense has been dreadful lately. Bryce has only failed to hit this five times. Four of them came in his division matchups against the Saints and Falcons with the last one coming against the Cowboys. All three of those teams find themselves in the top eight in EPA/play on defense. The Jaguars are 26th in the league since their bye week which is extremely impressive, or unimpressive I suppose, considering they found themselves in fourth entering the bye. Considering the only teams Bryce has failed to hit this prop against are significantly better on defense than the Jaguars I feel solid betting on Bryce here.
Other Bets
Zamir White o70.5 rushing yards -115
Chris Godwin o 55.5 receiving yards -110
Josh Jacobs is set to miss his third straight game in a row leaving Zamir White to lead the backfield against the Colts. Raiders interim head coach Antonio Pierce has stressed they are going to run the ball no matter what and they’re going to win in the trenches. So far that formula has produced wins against the Chargers and the Chiefs. White had 69 yards against the Chargers and 145 against the Chiefs. He has 39 carries combined between the two games and gets a Colts defense that is average at best against the run. I think the Raiders actually win this game so I don’t think you need to worry about White’s workload dropping at all. The Raiders are playing great football under Pierce right now. Expect them to look to establish the same physical dominance they brought against the Chiefs.
There is an adage in the fantasy world that the Buccaneers playing the Saints makes a great play. Marshon Lattimore has absolutely owned Mike Evans in his career and is the only cornerback who can say that. Lattimore has held Evans to 4 receptions or less in 14 out of 18 matchups. He has also posted an insane five games against Evans with one catch or less. Evans has 890 yards in 18 games against the Saints and this is the same game who has never failed to reach 1,000 yards in a single season in his entire ten year NFL career. The Buccaneers are playing really well right now and Chris Godwin has also broken out of his slump with double digit targets in three straight games and now has 78 yards or more in back to back games. He caught 8 passes for 114 yards in week four against the Saints and that was in the Superdome. I like his chances this week in a friendlier environment.
