NFL Free Agency Rankings Blessing, Curse for Packers
GREEN BAY, Wis. – What happens when you draft poorly, like the Green Bay Packers did in 2020? Yes, it creates a weakened roster. Beyond that?
The good news with 2024 NFL free agency approaching: There is no pressing need to re-sign any of those players, which is good for the salary cap and for not having to plug critical holes in the lineup.
The bad news: Losing those players will provide minimal, if any, compensatory draft picks.
Those are the free-agency realities for general manager Brian Gutekunst, who presumably will show little, if any, allegiance to his Class of 2020.
The emergence of quarterback Jordan Love, the first-round pick in that draft, has saved the franchise a long and painful rebuild.
Otherwise?
Pro Football Focus recently published its top 150 free agents. It paints a picture of what should be a relatively easy string of decisions for Gutekunst. Really, there will be no reason to stretch the budget to bring back any of the players.
Leading the way at No. 92 on PFF’s list, guard Jon Runyan is Green Bay’s best free agent. A sixth-round pick in 2020, he is a reliable workhorse with 50 consecutive regular-season starts and a history of quality pass protection.
However, the Packers made the decision months ago when they began splitting snaps between Runyan and 2022 third-round pick Sean Rhyan. Once Rhyan showed he was good enough to continue getting playing time, it was apparent which direction the team was headed. As the better player, Runyan would continue to start. As the young player with two more full seasons under contract, Rhyan would continue to play.
“The writing’s on the wall,” Runyan said in early December. He could have been bitter about the situation but was a pro throughout an odd season.
In the five games spanning Game 14 against Tampa Bay and the playoff win at Dallas, Rhyan played roughly 50 percent of the snaps. In the playoff loss at San Francisco, he played 20 snaps (30 percent). He probably will start at right guard in 2024. So will Runyan. Somewhere else.
The Packers have three more players on PFF’s 150-man list but they are all buried toward the bottom.
Running back AJ Dillon is No. 132. A second-round pick in 2020, he is coming off a dismal fourth season. With Aaron Jones in and out of the lineup, the Packers needed the powerful Dillon to carry the load. He did not.
Dillon averaged 3.4 yards per carry – down almost a full yard from 2021. His missed-tackle rate has dropped like a rock, from 26.1 percent in 2020 to 12.8 percent in 2021 to 8.1 percent in 2022 to 6.7 percent in 2023, according to Sports Info Solutions. The offense didn’t take flight until Jones was healthy and Dillon was sidelined with his own injuries.
His “success rate” was a career-worst 50.0 percent, though that ranked 16th out of 48 qualifying runners, he didn’t fumble on any of his 210 touches and he’s an asset in the passing game.
Safety Darnell Savage, a first-round pick in 2019 who played under the fifth-year option this season, is No. 145. By performance, letting Savage go should be easy. After an All-Rookie season, Savage had four interceptions and 12 passes defensed in 2020 and two interceptions and nine passes defensed in 2021. Among safeties during those three seasons, he ranked eighth with 26 passes defensed – just one behind Minkah Fitzpatrick and Tyrann Mathieu.
However, he had one interception and five passes defensed in 2022 and zero interceptions and a woeful one pass defensed in 10 games in 2023. And he’s got five years of terrible tackling on his resume with a career missed-tackle rate of 21.7 percent, according to Sports Info Solutions.
But maybe new defensive coordinator Jeff Hafley will see Savage as a strong schematic fit, with excellent athleticism and fixable flaws.
Slot corner and kick returner Keisean Nixon is No. 146, which feels too low compared to Dillon and Savage because of his all-around value as a two-time All-Pro kick returner.
Originally signed in free agency in 2022, Nixon started 13 games but was the primary nickel defender in all 17 in 2023. He had one interception – a brilliant one against the Chiefs’ Patrick Mahomes – and six passes defensed. He gave up too many catches (73.3 percent) and missed too many tackles (20; 20.2 percent), according to Sports Info Solutions.
But Nixon didn’t give up too many big plays (a decent 7.6 yards per target), and his big kickoff return at San Francisco was a reminder of that game-changing skill.
As for the rest of the 2020 draft, only four of the nine selections were on the roster in 2023: Love, Dillon, Runyan and third-round pick Josiah Deguara.
Listed by the team as a tight end but in reality an H-back/fullback, Deguara started a career-high four games in 2023 but his playing time and production was slashed from 367 snaps and 25 receptions in 2021 to 258 snaps and 13 receptions in 2022 and 196 snaps and eight receptions in 2023. He wasn’t targeted a single time in the passing game over the final nine games.
The Packers kept undrafted rookie Henry Pearson on the practice squad all season as a potential replacement.
