Three Overreactions from Packers’ Playoff Loss to 49ers
GREEN BAY, Wis. – Like so many other playoff losses over the years, the Green Bay Packers pulled defeat out of the jaws of victory in losing to the San Francisco 49ers 24-21 on Saturday night.
Wasted opportunities in the red zone by the offense, dropped interceptions by the defense and a missed field goal conspired to keep Green Bay out of the NFC Championship Game.
Here are our weekly Overreactions.
1. Patience Not Always a Virtue
In the second game of his career in 2018, fifth-round pick Daniel Carlson went 0-for-3 on field goals in Minnesota’s 29-29 tie at Lambeau Field. The Vikings released him the next day.
That was stupid. Impatience gets you nowhere in life.
The Packers selected Anders Carlson with a sixth-round pick in 2023. From the start, they made it clear they were going to stick with him for the long haul. And why not? Expectations were low for the team. As was the case with Jordan Love replacing Aaron Rodgers, this season was about Carlson replacing Mason Crosby and reassessing after the season.
Carlson got off to a hot start. In his first five games, he made all 17 extra points and field goals. He missed his first kick in Week 7 at Denver, a 43-yarder just before halftime of a two-point loss. Three weeks later at Pittsburgh, his missed extra point loomed large in a four-point loss.
In the regular season, Carlson missed a league-high 11 kicks. He finished in the bottom quartile of the league in field-goal and extra-point percentage.
The Packers showed extraordinary patience with Carlson, which would have been understandable if the team’s 3-6 start had wound up with a final record of 7-10. But the Packers got hot and reached the playoffs. You sort of knew Carlson’s miss-per-game habit would come back to bite them, no different than you knew the special teams would keep the team from winning the Super Bowl in 2021.
The Vikings were obviously wrong to move on from Daniel Carlson, who has been practically automatic the last four years with the Raiders.
Anders Carlson is too talented to move on from, as well. But there were easy remedies that didn’t mean outright dumping the rookie, such as signing a veteran kicker to the practice squad and elevating him for the games. Two of the NFL’s all-time scoring leaders, Mason Crosby and Robbie Gould, were available. Have them kick the shorter field goals and use Carlson on the long field goals and kickoffs.
Instead, general manager Brian Gutekunst opted to sink or swim with Carlson. During the broadcast, Fox’s broadcasters said coach Matt LaFleur says a prayer before every kick. What a damning statement on the state of the kicking game. So, on Saturday night, the season was sunk.
Would the Packers have beaten the 49ers had Carlson not missed a 41-yarder with about 6 minutes to go? Who knows. Would Anonymous Veteran Kicker had made that kick? Again, who knows. But the reality is Carlson did miss the kick and the Packers lost by three points. It was all so predictable.
“I think there’s a lot to learn,” Carlson said. “For me, it’s tough to see these guys, because I know how much they put in. I just want to put them in the best position as possible. Just thinking about them and working for them.”
2. Jordan Love Falls Short
In his debut season in 2008, Aaron Rodgers and the Packers crumbled down the stretch and finished 6-10. In his playoff debut in 2009, the Packers lost 51-45 at Arizona. Rodgers’ first pass was intercepted and his controversial fumble in overtime was returned for the game-ending touchdown.
A year later, the Packers won the Super Bowl.
Who knows if the Packers will follow that same trajectory, but the big-game experience that Love got this season that Rodgers didn’t get in 2008 could pay huge dividends.
“I think you saw so much growth throughout the course of the season, not only from his ability to going out there and playing consistent winning football, but also I think he grew as a leader,” coach Matt LaFleur said. “I think that’s very important obviously to be the franchise quarterback that I expect him to be for a long time around here.”
That the Packers got their next “franchise quarterback” is incredible. The Bears haven’t had one in forever and, therefore, are perennial losers. That the Packers could have elite quarterback play nonstop over a four-decade span is unthinkable.
No, Love did not play well with the game on the line against the 49ers. Over the final 19 minutes, Love was 7-of-13 passing for 29 yards and two killer interceptions. The last of those interceptions was the type of boneheaded play made by young and inexperienced quarterbacks.
That’s what Love is, of course. The next time the Packers are in such a situation, they need him to come through like a true franchise quarterback. The guess here is the Packers are in good hands.
3. Cheers to the Defense
The Packers have a lot of questions entering the offseason. The biggest is the future of defensive coordinator Joe Barry.
Coach Matt LaFleur elected to stick with Barry after his defense was overwhelmed by the Buccaneers and the worst-in-the-league Panthers in back-to-back games. In this case, the patience was rewarded.
Green Bay’s defense was excellent during the final four games. After holding the Cowboys to seven points in the first half last week, Green Bay gave up only 24 points and 356 yards to the 49ers. That’s about five points and 40 yards less than their season averages. Had Darnell Savage and Keisean Nixon not dropped interceptions, the Packers probably would have won the game.
“I thought it was fantastic,” LaFleur said of the defense. “Certainly, you’d like to get a stop at the end. That’s one of the best offenses in this league. It’s one of the best football teams in this league. There were so many opportunities, I thought, in the first half, even in the second half, where we didn’t take advantage of them. It stinks.”
So, now what? Is LaFleur confident that Barry has found ways to maximize the talent of his players? To finish in the top 10 in points allowed is rather remarkable considering the depth charts at cornerback and safety. Or will LaFleur deem good as not good enough and take a big swing for the fences with what should be a prime Super Bowl contender?
The guess is it will be the latter – as it should be – though it wouldn’t be a surprise to see LaFleur stick with Barry. Patience is a virtue in Green Bay, even if that patience sometimes is destructive.
