Why Arizona can - and can't - win a national championship in 2026-27
In this story:
Tommy Lloyd and the Arizona Wildcats broke through in 2025-26, making it to the Final Four for the first time since 2001, before a brutal second half against eventual champion Michigan ended their season.
While the loss of star freshmen Koa Peat and Brayden Burries - as well as Big 12 Player of the Year Jaden Bradley - certainly stings, Lloyd and his staff put together a team that, on paper, looks more than capable of getting back to the Final Four and competing for a national title in 2026-27.
It was 25 years between Final Four appearances for Arizona, but there's a real chance this streak doesn't even make it to one. Below is a look at why the Wildcats can make it back to the final weekend, and a few things they'll need to address in order to get there:
Why Arizona can win a national championship
A loaded frontcourt
The list of frontcourts in college basketball that are as deep, experienced, and talented as Arizona's is a very, very short one. While the dream of convincing star freshman Koa Peat to return to Tucson died in late May, Arizona did manage to secure another year of star center Motiejus Krivas, who averaged 10.4 points, 8.2 rebounds, and 1.9 blocks as a full-time starter last year.
Then, after months of searching, Tommy Lloyd finally found his Peat replacement at power forward in RJ Godfrey, a very strong 6'7 big man who put up 12.0 points and 5.3 boards last year at Clemson.
Godfrey will likely be battling the NCAA for eligibility throughout the offseason - and potentially into the season - but if he is eligible and starting next to Krivas, this unit will be incredibly difficult to deal with on both ends of the floor.
Beyond those two is a flurry of tantalizing transfers and international additions, including Nebraska's Ugnius Jarusevicius, Idaho State's Evan Otten, Maksim Brnovic, Endurance Aiyamenkhue, and returner Mabil Mawut - a group that could have a diamond, or two, in the rough.
Ivan Kharchenkov's breakout potential
For Arizona to get back to the Final Four, German sophomore Ivan Kharchenkov will have to build off his remarkable - and unexpected - freshman campaign.
Fortunately, the 21-year-old looks fully prepared to do so, dominating in Arizona's foreign tour in Lithuania as one of the team's top options offensively.
The 6'7 forward averaged 10.4 points, 4.3 rebounds, 2.3 assists, and 1.4 steals as a do-it-all wing for Lloyd last year, and now as the presumed starting three next to Krivas, Godfrey, and new guards Caleb Holt and Derek Dixon, Kharchenkov will be a matchup issue for opponents all season long - and is a critical part of this team's plan to get back to the Final Four.
Why Arizona could fall short
The 3-point shot is a concern
Not that Arizona needs it. Last year, the Wildcats averaged just 16 three-point attempts per game - 360th in the country - as they dominated down low with Krivas and Peat.
That will be the plan again this season, but it's important to note the Wildcats were very efficient when they did shoot last year, knocking down 36.6% of their attempts - good for 37th in the country.
It's hard to be as confident in this year's group, since returners Kharchenkov (31.7%) and Krivas (30.8%) were not exactly net burners last year, while newcomers Godfrey (20%) and point guard JJ Mandaquit (28.2%) would need to take massive leaps to help in that area.
Arizona won't rely on the three-point shot much in 2026-27, but not having it reliably in the bag is a scary proposition in March.
Guard depth is a concern
Arizona is well-equipped in the frontcourt, and the team's starting backcourt looks more than adequate for this upcoming season. It's the depth - and overall experience - that is alarming for Lloyd's team.
Derek Dixon was excellent last year at North Carolina, gradually stepping into a bigger role in Chapel Hill and ultimately averaging 2.7 assists and 1.2 turnovers while shooting 39.7% from three. Meanwhile, Caleb Holt is a top-five freshman in the country and could easily lead this team in scoring before getting picked top 3 in the 2027 NBA draft.
Those two are great, but they have 16 total college starts between them, and presumed backup JJ Mandaquit (22 games, 6 starts, 19.6 MPG at Washington) doesn't do a ton to help ease the concern there.
That's still a perfectly solid top three in the backcourt, but Arizona really has to hope all three stay healthy and productive for the entire season. Beyond the trio, the Wildcats have 4-star freshman Cameron Holmes and sophomore Bryce James - neither who have played a minute of college hoops.
Experienced guard play very often wins in March, and so much of Arizona's success last year relied on Jaden Bradley. This year's backcourt has played one total NCAA Tournament game between them - when Dixon and No. 6 UNC were stunned by No. 11 VCU - and it's not hard to see how that could be problematic when the big dance rolls around.
Arizona opens up the 2026-27 season against UCLA on Nov. 2 at 7:00 PM at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas.
Add us as a preferred source on Google