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This article was inspired by a statistic that flashed across the screen in the first half of this year’s Big 10 football championship game between Ohio State and Wisconsin. The statistic showed that Ohio State had only trailed its opponents for a total of nine minutes and fifty one seconds to that point in the entire season. Last Saturday, the Buckeyes would ultimately overcome a 21-7 deficit, having trailed Wisconsin for almost 40 minutes, before taking the lead late in the third quarter and holding on for an impressive 34-21 victory.

The whole thing got me thinking, and then doing a little research.

The conclusion is great football teams are in the lead a lot and, as a result, win a lot. Bad football teams trail a lot, and ultimately, lose a lot.

The statistics prove how bad a football team Arizona was in 2019.

Without doing a full-fledge national breakdown, I decided to look only at what it will take for Arizona to be better in 2020 by simply comparing how Arizona started the first and third quarters against opponents in 2019 with how the Pac-12 championship game participants performed.

The statistics were borderline horrifying.

This past year, Arizona won four games. The Oregon Ducks and Utah Utes each won 11 games apiece.

Almost unbelievably, over the course of 12 games, the Wildcats were the first team to score in a game twice this season. TWICE!!

Arizona jumped out to a 21-0 lead over Northern Arizona, while opening the scoring against Stanford with a field goal.

Overall, on the season, Arizona was outscored by its opponents 96-44 in the first quarter. In the third quarter, the Wildcats were outscored 119-61.

Comparatively, Oregon held a 106-49 first quarter scoring advantage over its opponents, as well as a 111-41 point advantage in the third quarter. Utah outscored its opponents in the first quarter by a combined margin of 83-55, while really outpacing foes in the third quarter by a 115-20 point advantage. While the Utes didn’t start as fast as the Ducks, it’s worth pointing out that in the second quarter the Utes outscored their opponents 151-39.

The data begs the question, what on earth is Arizona doing in the locker room before the game and at halftime? It’s almost inexcusable and absolutely impossible to win games where your club is constantly spotting opponents’ points out of the locker room and being forced to play from behind.

If a team is trailing, their margin for error is minimized. The more points they fall behind by, the smaller the margin of error becomes. This, in a nutshell, is Arizona football (see table below). Conversely, teams playing with a lead are loose, they can take bigger chances with smaller risks. The clock is their friend. Defenses with the lead can contain offenses between the 25 yards lines and then tighten up inside the red zone. They can blitz, almost at will, in predictable passing downs, or fake the blitz and retreat into any variety of zone coverages to trick up a desperate quarterback. A team that is trailing needs to create turnovers. They need the ball back, now.

On offense, a team with the lead can operate freely. They have choices. They can focus on killing the clock, or going for the jugular. Punting is fine. A field goal simply pads the lead. They don’t have to do something crazy like go for it on fourth down near midfield.

If Arizona football is to be better in the third year of the Kevin Sumlin Era, one thing they must do is figure out a way to come out of the locker room better in 2020. Overcoming early deficits to Texas Tech, UCLA, and Colorado in 2019 was nice, but it was clearly not sustainable over the course of a full schedule. Next season, Arizona needs to be the team striking first in the opening quarter, and then being the team making the better adjustments at halftime. It won’t be easy, but without improvement, fans will be staring up into the Tucson sky wondering what is happening in the Old Pueblo yet again.

The following table highlights how many points Arizona led or trailed its opponents before the losing team finally scored. As previously highlighted, Arizona only led two of its opponents in the first quarter twice in 2019. 

Arizona OpponentPoints Trailed or LetFinal Score Results

Hawaii

Arizona trailed Hawaii 14-0

45-38 Loss

Northern Arizona

Arizona led NAU 21-0

65-41 Win

Texas Tech

Arizona trailed Texas Tech 7-0

28-14 Win

UCLA

Arizona trailed UCLA 7-0

20-17 Win

Colorado

Arizona trailed Colorado 3-0

35-30 Win

Washington

Arizona trailed Washington 6-0

51-27 Loss

USC

Arizona trailed USC 34-0

41-14 Loss

Stanford

Arizona led Stanford 3-0

41-31 Loss

Oregon State

Arizona trailed Oregon State 7-0

56-38 Loss

Oregon

Arizona trailed Oregon 21-0

34-6 Loss

Utah

Arizona trailed Utah 35-0

35-7 Loss

Arizona State

Arizona trailed ASU 3-0

24-14 Loss

In Arizona's blowout win over Northern Arizona, scoring the game's first 21 points was nice, and necessary. In Arizona's only other game of the year when the Wildcats scored first, they not only led Stanford 3-0 early, but also scored the first points of the third quarter on a touchdown.

Conversely, in what is oftentimes the most frustrating loss for any Wildcat fan, the annual Territorial Cup against rival Arizona State saw the Sun Devils strike first on a made field goal. Troubling, however, was ASU outscored the Wildcats 14-0 in the decisive third quarter and actually tallied 17 unanswered points, after intermission, before Arizona's offense finally figured out a way to produce points.