Breaking down Boise State’s NCAA Tournament resume

The Boise State men’s basketball team has ripped off four straight Mountain West victories to give itself an outside chance at backdooring an NCAA Tournament at-large bid.

After Tuesday’s 86-77 home win over San Diego State (19-10, 13-6), the Broncos (19-11, 11-8) are locked in a three-way tie for fifth place in the MWC standings with Nevada (19-11, 11-8) and UNLV (16-14, 11-8). Colorado State (19-10, 11-8) can join the group with a road upset of New Mexico (22-7, 13-5) on Wednesday.

The top four seeds receive a first-round bye during next week’s MWC Tournament.

Boise State’s clearest path to the NCAA Tournament is an MWC Tournament championship. The Broncos, who close the regular season at 2 p.m. Mountain time on Saturday at Colorado State, could enter the at-large discussion with a strong showing in Las Vegas.

As of Wednesday morning, Boise State’s metrics are too light for at-large consideration.

Boise State

• NCAA NET Ranking: No. 58

• KenPom: No. 57

• Torvik: No. 54

Here are the advanced metrics for the last four teams included in Joe Lunardi’s latest field of 68 projection.

Santa Clara

• NCAA NET Ranking: No. 41

• KenPom: No. 39

• Torvik: No. 31

Ohio State

• NCAA NET Ranking: No. 34

• KenPom: No. 34

• Torvik: No. 28

New Mexico

• NCAA NET Ranking: No. 44

• KenPom: No. 46

• Torvik: No. 47

VCU

• NCAA NET Ranking: No. 46

• KenPom: No. 47

• Torvik: No. 56

The Broncos must rise by at least 10 spots in the advanced metrics to enter the bubble conversation.

Boise State does boast a pair of high-end victories over Saint Mary’s (NET Ranking No. 21) and New Mexico (No. 44) but is just 2-6 overall in Quad 1 games. The Broncos are 7-9 in Quad 1 and 2 games, well behind Santa Clara (8-6) and New Mexico (8-6) but comparable to Ohio State (8-11) and VCU (5-7).

Here is the breakdown of what constitutes a Quad 1 victory for home, neutral site and road games.

• Home: 1-30

• Neutral: 1-50

• Road: 1-75

Saturday’s matchup with Colorado State (NET No. 88) will likely be a Quad 2 game, but the Broncos could have multiple Quad 1 opportunities at the MWC Tournament against Utah State (No. 28), New Mexico and San Diego State (No. 47).

To have any chance at securing an at-large bid, the Broncos must defeat Colorado State on Saturday and reach the MWC Tournament championship game with three victories at Thomas & Mack Center.

A season ago, Boise State made the MWC title game and was among the first four teams left out of the NCAA Tournament. The Broncos were 24-10 on Selection Sunday last year with a NET Ranking of No. 44.