Boise State’s College Football Playoff odds plummet following Notre Dame loss

Broncos are +2500 to reach playoff

Boise State Broncos wide receiver Ben Ford. | Michael Caterina-Imagn Images

Boise State’s margin of error is gone in its bid to make a return trip to the College Football Playoff. 

After going .500 in non-conference play with lopsided road losses to No. 16 Notre Dame and No. 24 South Florida, the Broncos (3-2, 1-0 Mountain West) are down to +2500 to reach the 12-team playoff. Boise State was +1040 prior to last week’s Notre Dame game. 

The Broncos earned the No. 3 overall seed for last year’s CFP after capturing a second straight MWC title. 

To have any shot of getting back to the playoff, Boise State will need to run the table in MWC play for the second straight season. Next up is a home matchup with New Mexico (3-2, 0-1) at 7:45 p.m. Mountain time on Saturday. 

“We’ve got our hands full with New Mexico,” Broncos head coach Spencer Danielson said on Monday. “Hats off to (head coach Jason) Eck. We’ve got a really, really good opponent coming to The Blue on Saturday night, and we need Bronco Nation to show up just like they did against every single opponent this year.” 

Sep 12, 2025; Pasadena, California, USA; New Mexico Lobos running back D.J. McKinney (10) celebrates with offensive lineman Tyler Lawrence (68) after scoring a touchdown during the fourth quarter against the UCLA Bruins at Rose Bowl. | Kiyoshi Mio-Imagn Images

Boise State is still the odds-on favorite to capture a third consecutive MWC crown at -105. UNLV is next in the FanDuel odds at +480, followed by Fresno State (+700), Utah State (+1100) and San Diego State (+1200). 

The Rebels (5-0, 1-0), who received 19 votes in the latest AP poll, travel to Boise State on Oct. 18. The Broncos have defeated UNLV in the last two MWC championship games. 

In the CFP betting odds, the American Conference is in great shape to send its first team to the playoff since Cincinnati in 2021. 

American members Memphis (+280), South Florida (+390), Tulane (+440), North Texas (+490) and Navy (+980) are all above Boise State in the CFP odds. East Carolina (+2500) is tied with the Broncos in the odds. 

Tulane hosts East Carolina on Thursday while South Florida travels to North Texas on Friday. 

The five highest-rated conference champions in the final CFP rankings receive automatic bids to the playoff. 

Boise State and UNLV (+1800) are the lone MWC teams with CFP odds listed by FanDuel. 

Old Dominion (+980) and James Madison (+1800) of the Sun Belt are also CFP contenders.

Odds are courtesy of FanDuel. Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.